As I said I think the PS3 will give a (no doubt much publicised by Sony) boost to Blu-Ray sales initially.
However unless one format or the other offers a real blockbuster release like Star Wars , Indiana Jones ,Bond or some other "must have" titles they will both trickle along.
I don't believe for second that non gamers will buy a PS3 to watch HD discs and Blu-Ray will have the hardest time selling players due to prices.
Another drawback for HD in general: I read today that the BBC HD trial will quite possibly close in the Summer,at least temporarily and the ITV cable HD trials have all finished too.
With no realistic chance of HD on Freeview until 2012 satellite is going to be the carrier,but unless BBC,ITV or other high profile channels start full time in HD then I can also see Sky HD faltering for a while.
Nothing is going well for HD at the moment