From a Nokia press release in mid-2005:
"Identifying India and China as engines of mobile phone growth, Finnish cellular handset maker Nokia said global mobile phone users would swell to three billion by the turn of this decade.
"By 2010, Nokia estimates the global mobile subscriber base, which hit 1.7 billion at the end of 2004, to reach three billion," said Urpo Karjalainen, senior vice president, Nokia, whose share in the global cellular market is around 28 per cent.
Of these new subscriptions, nearly half are expected to come from Asia Pacific (APAC) countries including China, India, Indonesia and Vietnam. Mobile penetration in APAC is expected to be the major contributor to the global growth and would surpass the magical two billion mark by this year, he said at the company's annual event Nokia Connections 2005.
Nearly 80 per cent of the next billion subscribers were expected to come from new growth markets and lower-spending segments. "
From another press release from Wireless Intelligence, more recent (Sep 06), which validates Nokia's predictions:
"Worldwide growth is currently running at over 40 million new connections per month - the highest volume of growth the market has ever seen."
Over the four quarters to the end of September 2006, world total net additions were 484 million. Of these, 41% were in Asia Pacific. Eastern Europe and Latin America together accounted for 30% of the growth. Africa took 10% of the growth and the relatively mature markets of Western Europe, North America and the Middle East took the remaining 20% in more or less equal measure.
"Most of the growth is coming from cellular markets with lower levels of market penetration than exists in Europe for example," says Garner. "These are often referred to as "emerging markets", although many of them now have very large, well developed and sophisticated cellular markets with market penetration moving quickly towards European levels."
The top ten countries for volume of new connections over the last year were China, India, Russia, USA, Pakistan, Ukraine, Brazil, Indonesia, Nigeria and Bangladesh. Between them, they account for over half of the growth in the world cellular market over the last 12 months.
A quarter of the growth is coming from China and India. China's market is still expanding at more than 5 million new connections per month. India has moved rapidly up the top ten list, with the rate of new connections quadrupling over the last 18 months to reach a level very close to China's."
So with 70-80% of the market coming from other than US/W. Europe, obviously Nokia will concentrate their efforts there. With 9-10 million non-operator driven new connections monthly and add to that the replacement market, I feel Nokia is right in attempting to push symbian down the pricing order (e50 has already fallen below $200 mark) and release new models. I know of several people (and am sure a lot of HoFo members) who simply love a new unlocked phone every month!