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Scientists, Sociologists, Anthropologists, etc...using your best educated guess,...
- Thread starter 1/2MT
- Start date
For what it's worth, this paper may be of some interest to you. If little or nothing can be done about the rising genetic disorders in humans, it's anticipated by some that we will become extinct within this century. Perhaps mandatory genetic testing for procreation or transhumanism will become more acceptable and the status quo as time goes on. We already have seen a push towards transhumanism lately.
"Mendelian inheritance in man is “ an encyclopedia of human genes and the disorders and other traits with which they are associated. It has been in creation and updating for over 35 years and has been computerized for most of that time. In addition to the print edition (Figure 1), it has been distributed online (OMIM) since 1987 and by compact disc (MIM-CDTM) since late 1993.” (McKusick, 1998, Vol. 1, xiii - xviii)
Apparently, this database in the National Center for Biotechnology Information at Johns Hopkins University is the best in the world for the current catalog of human genes and genetic disorders.
McKusick: Mendelian Inheritance in Man,
Reported Genetic Disorders 1966 to 1999. The number
of medically reported genetic disorders in 1966 was
1,487. The number reported by 1999 was 11,099. A
curve of best fit has an R2 of 0.995.
By 2031, it is estimated (R2 = 0.995) there will be 100,000 human genetic disorders and by 2096 1,000,000 (see Figure 3). “At least one clinical disorder has been related to 1,318 of the mapped loci (roughly 30%)” (McKusick, 1998, Vol. 1, xiii - xviii). That suggests genetic disorder saturation of each locus by 2031 and supersaturation by 2096.
These data confirm human devolution and suggest imminent permanent genetic extinction in this century"
http://www.lifescienceprize.org/data3.html
"Mendelian inheritance in man is “ an encyclopedia of human genes and the disorders and other traits with which they are associated. It has been in creation and updating for over 35 years and has been computerized for most of that time. In addition to the print edition (Figure 1), it has been distributed online (OMIM) since 1987 and by compact disc (MIM-CDTM) since late 1993.” (McKusick, 1998, Vol. 1, xiii - xviii)
Apparently, this database in the National Center for Biotechnology Information at Johns Hopkins University is the best in the world for the current catalog of human genes and genetic disorders.
McKusick: Mendelian Inheritance in Man,
Reported Genetic Disorders 1966 to 1999. The number
of medically reported genetic disorders in 1966 was
1,487. The number reported by 1999 was 11,099. A
curve of best fit has an R2 of 0.995.
By 2031, it is estimated (R2 = 0.995) there will be 100,000 human genetic disorders and by 2096 1,000,000 (see Figure 3). “At least one clinical disorder has been related to 1,318 of the mapped loci (roughly 30%)” (McKusick, 1998, Vol. 1, xiii - xviii). That suggests genetic disorder saturation of each locus by 2031 and supersaturation by 2096.
These data confirm human devolution and suggest imminent permanent genetic extinction in this century"
http://www.lifescienceprize.org/data3.html
We will most likely never become extinct. We will cease to be human probably in a million years or so. Our ancestors will survive several hundred million years after that. We have lasted almost 4 billion years in unbroken lineage from earlier lifeforms. There is nothing threatening the most adaptable lifeform ever with extinction. We could have descendants tens of billions of years from now. We would obviously have to leave the Earth.
i think there are so many of us that it would take something really catastrophic like nuclear fallout or something to destroy us. even then there would be people in very rural discrete areas largely unaffected. then perhaps we might revert back to some pre-agricultural level again. thats my opinion on it.
Ignoring the likelihood that small groups somewhere will survive to carry on, I have read that some top scientists give us 1000 years tops.
My opinion is that with technology putting more and more power in the hands of so many, it will only be a few hundred years before a Millennial Cult or crazed "leader" does us in.
My opinion is that with technology putting more and more power in the hands of so many, it will only be a few hundred years before a Millennial Cult or crazed "leader" does us in.