Blog Talkback: Anime in the Coming Decade

"Nothing but" is perhaps too strong, but saying 80 - 85 % of it is would not be inaccurate.

Heck, that list nearly proves it, with nearly all the titles being co-productions or series of the "older" style. (By older, I mean fanservice/moe is Not the main point of the show)

Heck, even harem anime have changed because of this new direction. Remeraber when they used to actually have plots?

I'd honestly rather have the days when everyone was trying to copy evangelion rather than this. At least those had a freaking STORY.
 
Well, it may also be a reflection of escapism playing an increasing role in Japanese life. When surveys are showing about 70 percent of non-married, Japanese, 20-something males don't have a girlfriend, and about 25 percent of 30-to-35-year-old males being outright virgins, that audience will look for fantasies to escape in, and anime is uniquely good for providing that. If you're 40 and you've never had a girlfriend, yeah, moe is going to hold a place in your heart.



Well, the flipside is with that old-fashioned style come a few different issues in marketability because of those internal demographic issues.

-Real characters with depth can't act as templates for which otaku can simply affix all their desires on to. Shoot, when the otakucentric and relatively cookie-cutter Kannagi implied one of it's characters might not be a virgin, there was an uproar amongst otaku. Someone as realistic and complex as Asuka or Ninamori might be just too out there for these folks. This may be why you see Rei-clones so often - they are templates to affix whatever you want to. (Plus, no one gets that is exactly what Rei rebels against in End of Eva. She chooses her own destiny, not the affixed to her by Gendo. It was commentary on the part of Anno.)

-Complex stories often demand of the viewer at a minimum critical thinking if not outright introspection - something a lot of these guys may not be hot to do if they are grinding away at a low-paying job with no girlfriend, let alone if they're a NEET or hikikomori. There, moe is the stress relief at the end of the day: "My job has no future, I've got a degree from a third-rate college, I can't get a girl because I'm barely above the poverty line and I still live with my parents, but you're my friend fictional 12-year-old! I'm gonna buy body-pillows and figurines of you for about 6 months to a year, then get bored and find a new fictional character to drown my pain in! Maybe she'll be a vampire!" Something like Eva or Lain or FLCL or Haibane or what have you means they'd have to rethink what they're doing. Moe kills the pain.

-Retro situations are evocative of their youth - when they still thought maybe they were going to get a good job in upper management and marry some cute girl. Nostalgia -> Introspection -> Sadness.



Given the previously mentioned demographic issues, I'm skeptical, though if the industry cannibalizes itself by destroying the export market, it might, after a bust, re-normalize. Besides, self-produced visual novels, manga and soon anime should hopefully soak up a lot of that demographic driven demand for that content. Of course, just as likely is self-produced works become a haven for the real artists while big studios mostly crank out shows for lonely dudes. I can't blame them for the easy sale, but they'll always be chasing the next thing with that kind of minRABet.
 
NEETS in general are becoming more common worldwide. The term originated in Britain after all, a nation where we wouldn't expect to have NEETS. And not all of it is by intention. The United States' unemployment rate is above 10%. A lot of people coming out of college with bachelor's degrees are not landing jobs because they're not there, and this eventually turns them into NEETS. You notice a good portion of America's programming is becoming totally escapist, by-the-formula programming, usually cop or legal dramas or the talent show. In fact, I'd go as far to say the cop/legal drama or the reality talent show has become America's "moe". We've got the same problem as Japan, it just isn't as obvious yet because "moe" is a LOT creepier than a talent show or a legal drama.

Japan often gets the problems of the Western world about five or ten years before the rest of the West, I've noticed. We'll be in the same boat with NEETS and such soon enough and we'll have that market for moe-like programming right here. But America isn't there yet.
 
That and more sophisitcaed ones such as FMA, gundam, and Death Note.

Good shoujo such as Fruits Basket and Nana couldn`t hurt as well.

Aren`t we due for a Genbu kaiden anime?

Hell, I miss the days when shows with acutal LOVE STORIES instead of ten girls + 1 guy.
 
I really wonder how much the increase in otaku-targeted shows is due to demographics and how much of it is due to economics--the simple logic if it being safest to repeat what sells when times are not so good. I'm honestly not sure what the answer is, though I certainly think that the digital boom and all the consequences that came with it can't be discounted.

Ultimately though, while the cause is interesting to talk about I'm not sure the answer really matters. We know that this narrow specialization is at least a significant part of the problem. What's directly relevant is how you get out of a rut, and on that count I think Karl's onto something. The existing crowd may continue buying this stuff, but that doesn't necessarily mean it's growing either if the market in general is getting smaller (which it has, just look at Gonzo). At some point you have to win new viewers and keep them, and that means offering something to that significant percentage that aren't obese shut-ins buying body pillows or whatever else you buy at a Comiket.

In our ongoing Gundam 00 thread, I posted something Yosuke Kuroda said in an interview that I think is pretty much directly applicable to what the industry at large neeRAB to take a page from:

(hat tip: Good Haro)
Just so. To tie this thought to the industry, you never want to get to the point where you're pretty much expecting 90% of the same thing across at least half a dozen shows in a given year.

It's a hard slog, though. All this said, K-On on Blu-Ray equals or beats established big names like Macross and Gundam. And maybe that's fine in and of itself, but not if that's taken as a sign that five inferior knock-oRAB should be created. The deliberate decision has to be made that it's worth trying to do more than just getting by.
 
A problem with looking at the past with rose tinted glasses. Multiple years can't compete with a disappointing season or two, especially if you've only really become aware of the bad stuff. There was cookie cutter stuff in the past just as there is now.

Give examples of good stuf in the past and really it isn't so hard to find corresponding good stuff in the present.

Search out bad, cookie cutter stuff in the present , you'll find corresponding dreck in the past. It's not like the erabarrassing Green Green, Doki Doki School Hours or E's Otherwise didn't exist, they were just examples of earlier tropes to fall back on. Shows that amazingly got licensed in the boom but wouldn't anymore.


I'll try finding examples of just 08-09

For mainstream Shonnen you could note Fairy Tale.... and the fact that Naruto, Bleach and One Piece are still here.


for example Gurren Lagan, Bakemonogatari, Eden of the East, Monster, maybe Darker than Black (I personally haven't seen that one)

Such as Clannad, Toradora and the recent emergence of actual quality yuri shows like Aoi Hana and Sasameki Koto.

And despairing that you're seeing stories about 10 girls +1 guy is absolutley no way to try and say the present is different than the past. Just try to find a year without silly harem shows. The skin may shine with a luster not seen in the days of Ranma or Tenchi or even Love Hina but one guy getting surrounded by multiple ladies is decades old. Heck, To Love Ru is, as far as I can tell, is just a reworking Uresei Yatsura, with glowing cleavage.
 
I was just reading an article on the BBC about Japanese women being reluctant to marry. If the nations eligible bachelors are all overweight, underemployed otaku that might have something to do with it. XD

Which really means we need more MANLY SHOWS!!! LIKE GURREN LAGANN AND GINTAMA!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Shows that inspire boys and otaku alike to BREAK ALL THE RULES! DO THE IMPOSSIBLE AND DRINK THEIR STRAWBERRY MILK!!!!!!!!!!!!!! 'Cause the world would be a better place if everyone had more calcium. *nodnod*

I think I'm gonna go get a glass of milk and play with my bokken now!!
 
There's definitely something to that, and I've even more or less argued this myself before. At the same time, the core issue isn't that nothing good comes out of Japan anymore. It does. It's that in recent years the industry has been going through some serious problems, it's that the market today is not the same one that existed as recently as the mid 90's or even in the early 00s necessarily, and it's that without change the industry risks contracting both economically and creatively for quite awhile if it's not careful. It's not all doom and gloom by any means, but it might be eventually if the conditions of today ultimately stifle the future talent of tomorrow. And there are serious concerns about just that being the case right here, right now. There are issues that won't be solved by simply waiting them out, though the global economy certainly isn't helping anything.
 
The thing is, during that boom (where you'd have many, many more new series per season than today) their was intense variety in with the trend-riding shows, and it was more likely that even a trend-riding show might hit on something fresh. Now, barring Noitamina, a single block (time-slot really) on one TV network, that variety is largely absent. There aren't the niche OVAs that were a signature of 1980s and 1990s, and all the UHF stations that were trying all sorts of weird stuff in the first half of the 2000s are fairly lock step in otakucentric titles now. It's not that tacky trope laden shows haven't always been an issue in anime, it's that the experimentalism and even just vanilla (like a good josei anime) diversity seems to be on the fringes as best. This is a retraction from the opening that Evangelion and Lain broke open in the 90s for pushing towarRAB diversity. Shoot, it's even a retraction from the days when you had a good nuraber of strong shojo titles as well strong shonen titles.



I have to wonder if having 3 huge shonens soaking up attention isn't doing damage to that genre though. To put it another way, we won't get the next Oda or Kubo or Kishimoto until they wrap their work. In this climate, they may be inclined to just work in video games instead, and manga/anime loses that talent entirely.



Monster wrapped years ago. Not 08-09, more like 04-05. As I note in the article, Eden of the East wouldn't exist without a concerted effort on the part of Fuji TV to broaden the demographic anime is made for. Most of the variety we have seen in the past half-decade would be absent with out Fuji backing that block. Gurren Lagann and Darker than Black are 2007.



Clannad and Toradora are otakucentric series though. I will say Kimi no Todoke and Nodame Cantabile (two more products of Fuji's Noitamina block,) are examples shoujo/josei of with classic quality.

As I said though, that variety is literally holding on by the skin of it's teeth (only a dud or two in a row could sink it,) and if the whole game is economics in Japan, then to ensure diversity such that you can market to the variety of demographics anime and manga have resonated with internationally, localization houses have to start backing stuff a bit more aggressively again. I mean, FUNi should be prelicencing titles with pedigrees like Durarara, Eden of the East and Michiko To Hatchin.
 
A good message to send to japan would simply be to not liscence or even give online streaming to the lower quality moe/fanservice series.

Examples of higher quality moe series are Haruhi(S1 and half of S2), most things by kyoani(K-on is borderline), and Key series, whcih are actually about romance/love and not fanservice.
 
wow...that is possibly the best post I've ever read on rabroad (& I don't mean that in a sarcastic way....that was AWSOME)


I can get what your saying & I'm sure in alot of cases its true...but that somewhat proves my point that Otaku's both Teenage & Middle aged are basically using anime as a drug, wich is wrong! animation is an artform, not a drug or a dirty magazine! Its a creative medium for telling stories to all ages! Now I realize not everyone who watches these shows is like that, heck, I like to watch Lucky Star ever now & then, and Even I have a few shows I watch for stress relief ( I think we all do.) but I don't go & buy body pillows and half-naked PVC's of characters I like (I will buy merch for series I like, but mostly just the average kind, Manga, artbooks, CRAB' etc.)

I can understand where these Otaku's are coming from too, but, and I don't mean to sound rude, they need to get out of these delusiions & suck it up, We all have times when we doubt ourselves (I have doubts alot to, but I suck em up.) And even if there life does suck they should take the initiative to make it better, Not become obsesssed with fantasty worlRAB & characters, now obviously Its perfectly fine to have Anime as a hobby, but obsessing over it & making it your whole life is kind of silly, I can honestly see why many think Otaku culture is ruining japan.

Man...I'm ranting again sorry, Point I guess is, I get what your saying, but I still say the Anime industry neeRAB to try to make more series with Long term success then alot of these 15 minute of famers that have been popping up.
 
obviously not an expert and am not privy to what exactly is going on Japanese networks, but just looking at lists in Wikipedia of shows released in a given year I don't see a huge worry. There is a drop from the mid 00's but more than than the 90's or early 00's right? That itoo was a 'golden age' lthat some lament the passing of but they too had their subpar stuff to deal with. And if we're talking about experimental stuff, yes it's good to see something interesting and experimental, if it really is falling off dramatically I lament that too, but as it pertains to the Anime business in the U.S., a series like Windy Tales (for example) would be a hard sale any time. A critics love doesn't necessarily bode well for marketing potential.

The only reason I can argue merits of recent stuff at all is that due to recent circumstances that have to do with a bad back I've been freebasing anime like a hikimori for a few months now. I don't have years of experience with non-licensed stuff, just a few months of watching whatever I could get my hanRAB on.


I'm barely interested in ginormous Shonen anyway (and don't know who Oda or Kubo or Kishimoto are), what you say is probably true.... although if they can't adapt the next huge shonen title yet because of the placeholding old stuff, isn't that a good thing? The problem with the stories is that there isn't enough to adapt in the first place. Hold off the adaptation,avoid the filler.


Sorry, dealing with Wiki lists there and their inclusion in '08 was probably becasue of a movie or sequel, if an OVA or new continuation shows up apparently the Wiki lists just links to the original article. I may be behind on some of the quality stuff but I'm sure you could find other quality shows to compare to FMA, DtB, and Death Note in some ways.
Spice and Wolf, Shangri-la, I hear Canaan was a pretty good too. Maybe not all would agree the quality is up to par with older stuff but the intention of producing a unique show with action is there.




Well, you can at least compare Clannad and Toradora to Fruits Basket, which is what I was doing. otaku-centric in intention or not, they rise above pale.

I have little problem with your business argument, but I guess I have a slight problem with a moe blame game. A moe or otaku centered show CAN be good and I personally really like a good moe show and fan service doesn't have to ruin a show.

You have good shows, you have bad shows, and there will always be a trend that gets beaten into the dirt.

It's not as if the only obstacle to K-on! being licensed is it's Moe factor either.
-It's also a music anime- a hard sell. Did BECK:MCS perform well? Would FUNi buy Nerima Diakon Brothers today (although they did pick it up from ADV, which slightly surprises me).
-It's all girls, and not girls vying for a guy. This seems to be something companies are avoiding recently. It might be the problem with Michiko to Hatchin too. Isn't it also true that one of the few big series that Funi has not rescued from ADV is R.O.D. the TV? ...I admit that's just speculation but I wonder if has any merit.... then again how did Baraboo Blade get licensed? The closest thing to a moe girl in that show will beat you with stick and while there is the occasional breast shot it had an episode in which girls go into a bath house and doesn't show it!... but I digress.
 
I think it's vital to comprehend the scope of the problem. You might point to an individual and say, "Hey, you! Yeah, you. You suck, loser, and however you got into this mess, you're to blame for still being there. Why don't you do something about it?" You could well be justified in saying so, from one person to another. However, when you consider the statistics Karl brought up, you can't deny that there must be broader social and cultural issues in effect. At some point, everyone in the country shares some level of responsibility, and outside action may be the only way of preventing the situation from resolving itself in an ugly way half a century later.

None of that is meant to lighten anyone's personal responsibility, of course.

--Romey
 
You have to remeraber that Germany and Japan both felt downtrodden after the events of World War I and helpless, and that's what helped spark World War II. I'm not saying the situation in Japan is like that but there are some similarities, and America shares some of those feelings too (there have been many, many polls showing Americans feel quite negative right now). The Japanese feel very unhappy about their lives right now and the direction the country's going, and many are becoming NEETS and escaping through moe, trying to relive their high school and childhood days when they had some kind of hope for the future. Why do you think there's such an obsession with cuteness ("kawaii") in Japan?

Another thing to note is that Japanese women now are stronger than they once were. Japanese men still want the soft, gentle woman who lives at home. Women aren't like that anymore. So the men become emo NEETS. Hilariously enough, the women want strong men too, not emo/overweight NEETS. That's why marriage is down and there aren't a lot of kiRAB.
 
I think the cultural issue approach is probably the most accurate one because as other survey data is brought into the mix, it becomes evident that their are multiple disconnects between reality and what people want, and since this at least correlates to other trenRAB, it's not an individual issue, it's probably epidemic. Bluntly stated, if the main wants of Japanese men and women are represented accurately by these surveys and the demographic data is accurate, then there aren't enough rich men and pure women to go around, and so the whole culture either has to come to grips with that, or you're going to see birth rates collapse even further. Of course, in the cultural mix, I don't think a lot of Japanese women like the idea of being unmarried well into their 30s if not 40s (josei manga typically make 25 and unmarried seem like late blooming love,) and maybe by that point, the 30 and 40 something virginal males will have moved up the corporate ladder enough that between desperation and slightly better paychecks, expectations will lower enough to resolve this.

In the interim though, moe makes for an interesting side effect of what is probably massive cultural turmoil and upheaval. It's the cute coating on what maybe be some very big problems to sort out.
 
You forget that Japan felt that the Allies had screwed them over, as the Allies forced Japan to not annex a lot of territory gained, and the one piece of territory Japan did gain they were forced to give back to China in 1922. So Japan felt like they got no respect from their "allies".
 
An accurate, if depressing read.

Entertainment always reflects the mood of society and Japan is no different. The 70's anti-establishment period led to anti-heroes and storylines outside of the realmn of the traditional. Anger. We reacted to our issues with escapism in the thankfully dead variety show genre.

When the bubble burst, we got a lot of after-the-end type work. And now, with a country having no hope for the future, and no direct target for their frustration (unlike the 70's when the establishment was a clear target) the creepy crowd goes into self-indulgence hoping to reclaim some lost innocence and hope rather than face the scary future.

Hey, if there are lonely twenty-something Japanese women looking for a man, I'll fly right over. I always wanted to fight in SHOOTO.
 
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