Hurricane: it's not a question of Bell being "stupid". And it's not a question of what Bell plans to do in the fullness of time.
Bell will launch more HD channels (in MPEG-2).
Bell will launch HD channels (in MPEG-4).
Eventually Bell will migrate its HD service to MPEG-4.
Bell will launch "updated" 9200s in Q4 with MPEG-4 capability.
Bell will launch additional HD programming theme packs.
All these facts are a given. They come from public Bell statements or simple business logic -- like charging for additional HD Theme Packs (every non-OTA HD channel comes with a programmer fee so at some point you lose money including more -- Star Choice has started down this road).
Yes, Bell has options in the short run -- like removing PPV channels (again, that is exactly what Star Choice is doing) to make room for HD.
Bell did make a strategic error a couple of years ago when it obviously believed the HD market was going to grow more slowly than it has -- otherwise, like DishNet, they'd already have 18 months worth of lead time with MPEG-4 capable HD boxes in customer homes. As a result, they will pay the price with less flexibility to meet HD demand -- until sometime in 2009 it appears -- than they would have had.
Is the sky falling? Of course not. But the evidence is obvious that they have NOT launched Showcase, National Geographic, CBC West, TQS, TVA, RDS, MMORE, SUN TV, OMNI.1, OMNI2, The Score -- the HD ones I can think of off the top of my head that are available from other vendors -- because they are fighting capacity issues, not out of choices made purely on delivering HD programming.
Testing MPEG-4 signals as they are apparently doing is all part of Bell moving forward as you might expect. But the conclusion that this means the sudden appearance of a bundle of new MPEG-4 HD channels in Sep (or Q4 2007) just isn't credible given the current conditions.
Is it technically possible? Yes, probably -- as noted, Bell can lean a bit on DishNet to speed up the engineering tests. But dedicating two precious transponders to deliver 6 or 8 MPEG-4 HD channels that no subscribers can view (or, at best, a few thousand by New Year's Day) makes zero business sense.
I would not want to be the manager telling the new owners why I was spending millions of dollars to launch a channel pack --a year or more earlier than needed -- to deliver services very few folks can buy.