As if EA sells a game with every 360 sold. What is being reduced is inventory, inventory which needs to be absorbed, or sold, before any new 360 comes out. Otherwise no one will buy it. It will linger on the shelves forever. As the inventory dwindles, inventories will be moved around from store to store until it is all used up. At some point manufacturing will respond to demand on a per week basis.
Perhaps the reason why EA shares are down is because the quality of their games are down. 360 ownerss may be buying more product from their competitors, whom they see as making a superior product.
But to tie in EA and Activision share drops to the possibility that inventory is going to be reduced is to engage in sheer speculation. Why not also say that the increase in oil is likely to directly translate to increase in plastic prices? Conversely, a drop in oil prices could translate in a drop in plastic prices. in which case EA and Activision prices should rise.
If those numbers are to be believed, and if there are already 10.4MM units out there, and if the goal is 12MM by the end of June (4th quarter, business), then only 2 MM units will be sold within the next 6 months. During November-December 2006, they sold 0.5MM units, so 2MM units (without the Christmas season "hype") is very realistic.
Halo3 in September? Unlikely. It would make more sense to put it on sale the week before Thanksgiving, so mid-November. If MS wants everyone to buy a new 360v2, then it'll have to be out 30 days previous, so mid-October would be more realistic. Personally I would want one before then, preferably when Blue Dragon comes out. But I am in the vast minority as Blue Dragon will not likely sell millions of units. In keeping with business model practices, July 1 (1st quarter, business) would be the time to release a new unit to production, or the start of v2 shipments. That would be too late for me.
