Those who want to reelect President Obama need to face a disappointing reality: The chances that Mitt Romney may win in November are real, and one of the reasons is that some of those who supported Obama in 2008 and still believe in him today are making noises that they may not come out to vote.
Yes, this may only happen on the margins — but the margins matter in a close election that could well come down to base turnout.
Demoralized Democrats need to snap out of it, starting at this week’s convention in Charlotte. They need to realize that Obama has been a very successful President, and the Republican alternative is as stark and dangerous as anything offered by President George W. Bush.
Over the last three-and-a-half years, the GOP has become an extraordinarily narrow party. It’s incredibly homogenous — 87% white, 52% male and 53% older than 50, according to the Pew Research Center. That’s because its policies and rhetoric have alienated African Americans, Latinos, gays, young people, women and the well-educated.
The party has taken extreme stands against reproductive rights, lesbian and gay equality and religious pluralism. And almost a year ago, during the debt ceiling stand-off, its congressional wing held the economy hostage to absurd demands for massive spending cuts, all while refusing to increase taxes even on the very top by a fraction of a percentage point.
Given all this, a casual observer might look at the current Republican Party and conclude that it doesn’t stand a chance against Obama this November. But a quick glance at the polls shows otherwise. In every polling average, Romney is close behind Obama in the race for the presidency.
In short, the Republican Party stands a chance in this election — and might even win it — because Republicans are incredibly enthusiastic about voting against Obama, and Democrats might not be quite as excited about the next four years of their guy.
The President understands this; at a rally in Charlottesville, Va., last week, he asked the crowd to translate its attendance into votes. “Don’t just chant, vote!” Indeed, a large part of his speech was devoted to reminding students and other supporters of how important they are to the outcome of the election.
He’ll have to repeat this message throughout the fall. According to the latest Gallup poll, 53% of registered voters say they are enthusiastic about voting this year, compared to just 46% of Democrats.
And in the most recent survey from the Pew Research Center, 70% of Romney supporters say they have “given a lot of thought” to the election, compared to 57% of Obama supporters.
