http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/maps/obama_vs_mccain/?map=10
This is the way the states are expected to fall if there are no major changes in favor of McCain.
I switched a few states over to McCain, giving him all the ones where he is currently losing but had been expected to win. States like North Carolina, Florida, Ohio, Virginia, and New Hampshire.
Even with all that added on, he still lost by a few electoral votes. He'd have to pull all of those states, and probably Colorado as well before he'd take the win.
I just don't think he has it in him anymore.