M
mll1013
Guest
A little analysis today leads to the following conclusion if the vote happened today:
Pres: Barack Obama
VP: Sarah Palin
Say what??? I'm insane, right? Well, follow along...
1) I took the current default map from http://www.270towin.com which plots expected outcomes in states where polls are convincing enough to predict a winner. That leaves 13 states undecided.
2) I plug in all of the light red/blue conclusions from the USA Today poll tracker at http://tiny.pl/8kmm . That leaves 4 states undecided (NV, CO, PA, NH.)
3) I take the most recent poll data from those four states (in the case of an exact tie, I take the one previous) as reported by USA Today. The polls show NV: McCain (49-46), CO: Obama (51-41), PA: Obama (49-44), and NH: McCain (48-45) Now, I plug these four results into the interactive map at 270towin, and I get...
*gasp*
Obama: 269; McCain: 269... A DEAD TIE!!!
Now, I had to look up what happens in the case of a tie: 270towin says: "If neither candidate has reached 270 Electoral Votes, then the House and Senate take over and elect the President and Vice-President, respectively."
4) So, let's go to the House of Representatives to determine the president. Assuming straight party lines, the House is controlled by the Dems, so OBAMA IS "ELECTED" PRESIDENT by the House
5) Let's turn to the Senate to determine the VP: 49 Reps, 49 Dems, 2 Independents. Again, going with straight party line, the score is 49-49. Now, we know that Lieberman will vote for McCain, so give John a one vote advantage, but even if Bernard Sanders votes for Obama, you now have a 50-50 tie... bring in Dick Cheney to break the tie, he'll go party line for sure, and PALIN IS "ELECTED" VICE PRESIDENT by the senate.
Of course, this assumes that the levels remain constant in Congress, that's a big "if" as it relates to the Senate... but I found the exercise both entertaining and amusing nevertheless.
Be sure to get out and vote on Nov 4th... it's gonna be a tight race this year.
Oops... I said Lieberman would vote for McCain, but I meant Palin. Perhaps that's not as much of a guarantee, but he did speak at the RNC, so I'd still give Palin the nod in a 49-49 tie.
Pres: Barack Obama
VP: Sarah Palin
Say what??? I'm insane, right? Well, follow along...
1) I took the current default map from http://www.270towin.com which plots expected outcomes in states where polls are convincing enough to predict a winner. That leaves 13 states undecided.
2) I plug in all of the light red/blue conclusions from the USA Today poll tracker at http://tiny.pl/8kmm . That leaves 4 states undecided (NV, CO, PA, NH.)
3) I take the most recent poll data from those four states (in the case of an exact tie, I take the one previous) as reported by USA Today. The polls show NV: McCain (49-46), CO: Obama (51-41), PA: Obama (49-44), and NH: McCain (48-45) Now, I plug these four results into the interactive map at 270towin, and I get...
*gasp*
Obama: 269; McCain: 269... A DEAD TIE!!!
Now, I had to look up what happens in the case of a tie: 270towin says: "If neither candidate has reached 270 Electoral Votes, then the House and Senate take over and elect the President and Vice-President, respectively."
4) So, let's go to the House of Representatives to determine the president. Assuming straight party lines, the House is controlled by the Dems, so OBAMA IS "ELECTED" PRESIDENT by the House
5) Let's turn to the Senate to determine the VP: 49 Reps, 49 Dems, 2 Independents. Again, going with straight party line, the score is 49-49. Now, we know that Lieberman will vote for McCain, so give John a one vote advantage, but even if Bernard Sanders votes for Obama, you now have a 50-50 tie... bring in Dick Cheney to break the tie, he'll go party line for sure, and PALIN IS "ELECTED" VICE PRESIDENT by the senate.
Of course, this assumes that the levels remain constant in Congress, that's a big "if" as it relates to the Senate... but I found the exercise both entertaining and amusing nevertheless.
Be sure to get out and vote on Nov 4th... it's gonna be a tight race this year.
Oops... I said Lieberman would vote for McCain, but I meant Palin. Perhaps that's not as much of a guarantee, but he did speak at the RNC, so I'd still give Palin the nod in a 49-49 tie.