There are three kinds of films that get nominated for this award. The commercial favorite (Shrek the Third, Simpsons Movie), the experimental/unusual (Beowulf, Peresopolis), and the other which often bring the phrase "How did you get here?" to mind (ATHF, Alvin and Chipmunks). Critical favorties usually lie in the commercial (Ratatouille) and experminental categories. Here is how the they have broken down in the past:
Commercial (Shrek, DW)
Commercial (Monsters, Pixar)
Other (Neutron, Nick)
Experimental (Spirited Away, Myazaki)
Commercial (Lilo and Stitch, Disney)
Commercial (Ice Age, Blue Sky)
Experimental (Treasure Planet, Disney)
Other? (Spirit, DW)
Commercial (Finding Nemo, Pixar)
Other (Brother Bear, Disney)
Experimental (Triplets of Bellville)
Commercial (Incredibles, Pixar)
Commercial (Shrek 2, DW)
Commercial (Shark Tale, DW)
Experimental (Wallace and Gromit, Aardman)
Experimental (Howl's, Myazaki)
Experimental (Corpse Bride, Burton)
Commercial (Happy Feet, Village Roadshow)
Commercial (Cars, Pixar)
Experimental (Monster House, Zemeckis)
There aren't to many patterns, but commercial films seem to take the cake. Pixar is the most consistent studio, Dreamworks has only won once and haven't been favorited much recently. My guess is that Ratatouille will win. Next in line Simpsons Movie and one of the anime movies. Beowulf could and there is a slight chance of Surf's up.
The biggest surprise with this list though, has been that Lion's Gate didn't bother to send in Happily N'ever After.