Been doing some stuff with the soaps averages for each year this afternoon, putting them into a graph. Below are the averages for each of the big 3 soaps from 2002 onwarRAB:
Coronation Street 2010 average includes HD
2002 - 11.96m
2003 - 13.32m (up 12.0% on previous year)
2004 - 12.10m (down 10.1%)
2005 - 11.11m (down 8.9%)
2006 - 10.19m (down 9.0%)
2007 - 10.12m (down 0.7%)
2008 - 9.51m (down 6.4%)
2009 - 9.23m (down 3.0%)
2010 - 9.39m (up 1.7%; drop of 27.4% compared with 2002)
EastEnders
2002 - 11.95m
2003 - 12.57m (up 5.1%)
2004 - 11.32m (down 11.0%)
2005 - 10.20m (down 11.0%)
2006 - 9.16m (down 11.4%)
2007 - 8.88m (down 3.2%)
2008 - 8.42m (down 5.5%)
2009 - 8.43m (up 0.1%)
2010 - 9.25m (up 9.7%; drop of 29.2% compared with 2002)
Emmerdale 2010 average excludes HD
2002 - 9.21m
2003 - 9.26m (up 0.5%)
2004 - 9.00m (down 2.9%)
2005 - 8.63m (down 4.3%)
2006 - 7.63m (down 13.1%)
2007 - 7.46m (down 2.3%)
2008 - 6.93m (down 7.6%)
2009 - 6.73m (down 3.0%)
2010 - 7.22m (up 7.3%; drop of 27.6% compared with 2002)
With thanks to rzt for all the averages, apart from the Emmerdale (2002 to 2004) averages.
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Information above as a graph:
http://img80.imageshack.us/img80/9672/soaps.png
The 2010 averages will almost certainly go up for the 3 soaps, so I'd expect Coronation Street and EastEnders nearer to 10m with Emmerdale hopefully nearer to 8m. For all 3 soaps, as you can see, it will end up their best year for several years.
I think its also worth noting that even without the supposed '3% increase' for the ratings, Emmerdale and EastEnders would both still be up on last year. Coronation Street will probably end up more than 3.0% up on last year providing their 50th anniversary brings in good figures.
If we're to look at the biggest drops though for each of the three soaps:
- Coronation Street: 2004. I think this is more down to a superb 2003 more than anything else, in particular drawing 19m for one or two episodes in that year with the Richard Hillman storyline meant that 2004 was going to be down.
- EastEnders: 2006. One of the worst years the soap has seen, with one or two record low ratings to throw into the mix. It's most expensive stunt if I recall brought it the lowest ever rating. Of course it also clashed with Emmerdale, which didn't help.
- Emmerdale: 2006. More to do with the World Cup than anything else when ITV chose to throw it on at 10pm, sending it to record low ratings of 3m and 4m.
Pretty sure you can also attribute the above average drops for Emmerdale and Coronation Street in 2008 to a change in producer.
Hope you guys like the above anyway.
