I don't think there's any way part 1 will be out for Christmas 2011. At one stage they were gonna start shooting much earlier this year, like March time, but it's been delayed so much for various reasons. They had a full year of post-production on Fellowship of the Ring before it came out so we can expect the same for The Hobbit part 1. It will take a year just to shoot both parts, so expect post-production to start proper mid-2011 for a Christmas 2012 release of part 1, Christmas 2013 part 2.