The already sluggish personal computer shipments from manufacturers have taken an unexpected turn for the worse, according to a new report, which is bad news for companies such as Hewlett-Packard (HPQ) and Intel (INTC).
Less than three months after predicting PC shipments would decrease 1.3 percent this year, research firm International Data Corp. on Tuesday significantly downgraded that estimate, saying the drop would
Tablet computers are expected to outsell PCs for the first time this year, according to a new report. REUTERS/Lee Jae-Won (LEE JAE-WON)
more likely be 7.8 percent.IDC attributed much of its revision to the growing consumer appetite for mobile gadgets, particularly tablets, which are expected to outdo laptop shipments for the first time this year.
Ryan Reith, an IDC program manager, said the research firm hadn't expected tablet shipments to surpass laptop shipments until 2014. Besides being surprised by the accelerated decline in PC sales, he said, IDC recently determined it hadn't accounted for some tablet sales in the past.
This year, IDC expects 229.3 million tablets to be shipped, up nearly 59 percent from a year ago, while notebook shipments should total 187.4 million.
Moreover, by 2015, IDC said it expects tablet shipments to outpace the entire
PC market, including notebooks and desktop devices."We're going through a pretty fundamental transition," said IDC program vice president Loren Loverde, noting that many consumers are enamored with instant-on gadgets that are "always available, not just when you are at your desk."
Nonetheless, he cautioned against assuming PCs are on the verge of vanishing.
"We're not going to fall off a cliff," he said, noting that tablets lack the computing power to perform some tasks PCs can handle, such as processing large amounts of data in spreadsheets. In addition, although many individuals and businesses have held off replacing their PCs while the economy was slow, he said that reluctance should ease over the next few years.
As a result, Loverde said, notebook sales probably will begin increasing in 2015 and continue that trend through 2017. But because desktop sales should continue falling, IDC predicts overall PC shipments in 2017 will remain below their 2012 level.
Others also have seen the PC market tank lately.
Research firm Gartner last month reported that global PC shipments during the first quarter of the year were the lowest since the second quarter of 2009, during the recession.
Also in April, Deutsche Bank analysts cut their PC sales forecast, warning "that even our relatively bearish estimate for the year is already looking too high." They added that "the implications are negative for all PC manufacturers," especially Palo Alto-based Hewlett-Packard.
The news is similarly troubling for Intel of Santa Clara, which makes most of its money selling chips for PCs. But Needham & Co. analyst Richard Kugele predicted the PC market could rebound later this year, due to lower prices, more use of touch screens and adoption of Intel's new Haswell chip, which is expected to greatly extend the battery life of laptops by halving their power consumption.
Contact Steve Johnson at 408-920-5043. Follow him at Twitter.com/steveatmercnews.
PC shipment forecast
Research firm International Data Corp. on Tuesday said it expects global personal computer shipments from manufacturers to fall by 7.8 percent this year from a year ago. But while desktop shipments should continue declining, IDC expects notebooks to rebound.
Desktop shipments: Expected to drop from 148.3 million in 2012 to 134.4 million this year to 123.9 million in 2017.
Notebook shipments: Expected to drop from 200.9 million in 2012 to 187.4 million this year, but increase to 209.5 million in 2017.
Less than three months after predicting PC shipments would decrease 1.3 percent this year, research firm International Data Corp. on Tuesday significantly downgraded that estimate, saying the drop would
Tablet computers are expected to outsell PCs for the first time this year, according to a new report. REUTERS/Lee Jae-Won (LEE JAE-WON)more likely be 7.8 percent.IDC attributed much of its revision to the growing consumer appetite for mobile gadgets, particularly tablets, which are expected to outdo laptop shipments for the first time this year.
Ryan Reith, an IDC program manager, said the research firm hadn't expected tablet shipments to surpass laptop shipments until 2014. Besides being surprised by the accelerated decline in PC sales, he said, IDC recently determined it hadn't accounted for some tablet sales in the past.
This year, IDC expects 229.3 million tablets to be shipped, up nearly 59 percent from a year ago, while notebook shipments should total 187.4 million.
Moreover, by 2015, IDC said it expects tablet shipments to outpace the entire
PC market, including notebooks and desktop devices."We're going through a pretty fundamental transition," said IDC program vice president Loren Loverde, noting that many consumers are enamored with instant-on gadgets that are "always available, not just when you are at your desk."
Nonetheless, he cautioned against assuming PCs are on the verge of vanishing.
"We're not going to fall off a cliff," he said, noting that tablets lack the computing power to perform some tasks PCs can handle, such as processing large amounts of data in spreadsheets. In addition, although many individuals and businesses have held off replacing their PCs while the economy was slow, he said that reluctance should ease over the next few years.
As a result, Loverde said, notebook sales probably will begin increasing in 2015 and continue that trend through 2017. But because desktop sales should continue falling, IDC predicts overall PC shipments in 2017 will remain below their 2012 level.
Others also have seen the PC market tank lately.
Research firm Gartner last month reported that global PC shipments during the first quarter of the year were the lowest since the second quarter of 2009, during the recession.
Also in April, Deutsche Bank analysts cut their PC sales forecast, warning "that even our relatively bearish estimate for the year is already looking too high." They added that "the implications are negative for all PC manufacturers," especially Palo Alto-based Hewlett-Packard.
The news is similarly troubling for Intel of Santa Clara, which makes most of its money selling chips for PCs. But Needham & Co. analyst Richard Kugele predicted the PC market could rebound later this year, due to lower prices, more use of touch screens and adoption of Intel's new Haswell chip, which is expected to greatly extend the battery life of laptops by halving their power consumption.
Contact Steve Johnson at 408-920-5043. Follow him at Twitter.com/steveatmercnews.
PC shipment forecast
Research firm International Data Corp. on Tuesday said it expects global personal computer shipments from manufacturers to fall by 7.8 percent this year from a year ago. But while desktop shipments should continue declining, IDC expects notebooks to rebound.
Desktop shipments: Expected to drop from 148.3 million in 2012 to 134.4 million this year to 123.9 million in 2017.
Notebook shipments: Expected to drop from 200.9 million in 2012 to 187.4 million this year, but increase to 209.5 million in 2017.