Syria's Prime Minister, Riyad Hijab, has defected to the opposition forces battling to overthrow President Bashar Al Assad, just two months after he was appointed to the role. Mr Hijab is now in a secret location outside Syria. His spokesman has read a statement denouncing the government he's just deserted as a 'terrorist regime'. It's the highest level political defection from the regime, and the French and US leaders have already welcomed it. A Syria specialist at the Century Foundation, Michael Wahid Hanna, joins The World Today to discuss the possible ramifications of the defection.
ELEANOR HALL: Now to Syria, and the defection of the county's prime minister, Riyad Hijab, who was appointed by president Bashar al-Assad only months ago.
Mr Hijab is now in a secret location outside Syria but his spokesman read a statement denouncing the government he has just deserted as a "terrorist regime".
RIYAD HIJAB'S SPOKESMAN (translation): I address you today at this grave hour, where the country is living under the brunt of genocide and brutal killing against unarmed people who are simply demanding freedom and dignity. I declare to the Syrian people that I have defected from the terrorist, murderous regime, and I'm joining the holy revolution.
ELEANOR HALL: It is the highest level political defection from the regime and the French and U.S. governments have already welcomed it.
Syria specialist at the Century Foundation, Michael Wahid Hanna, says things could change very quickly in the next few days, but he says this is not necessarily the death knell for the Assad regime.
Dr Hanna, who is also a member of the US Council on Foreign Relations, joined me earlier from Bridgehampton in New York.
MICHAEL WAHID HANNA: It's clearly a very significant, symbolic loss. This is a man who was appointed only several months ago to restore confidence, so his defection is one more blow to a reeling regime.
I think one point that is important is that he is also a Sunni, as with the previous high profile defections, we have not seen any from the Alawi inner core of the regime, and I think that's something that amplifies the emerging sectarian dynamics and the struggle is defined in a much more sectarian tone.
ELEANOR HALL: How difficult would it have been for someone so high up in the Assad government to get out of the country, along with his family essentially under the nose of president Assad?
MICHAEL WAHID HANNA: Well obviously the regime has been working on their contingency plans for decades, in the sense of trying to coup proof the regime. We know that people have been separated from their families and extended families and circles of acquaintances even are open to retribution. So it is a very difficult process and the regime is clearly on the lookout in terms of trying to monitor the behaviour of high officials.
And I think what this also does and in having another significant Sunni figure defect, it will make the loyalties of all, or almost all high level Sunni officials suspect in the eyes of the regime and I think it will increase the level of probably rightful paranoia that there are probably others who would defect if given the opportunity.
ELEANOR HALL: Well there are also reports that the finance minister attempted to defect. What have you heard about that?
MICHAEL WAHID HANNA: I saw similar reports, I know that he appeared on state TV later in the day after the initial reports had emerged denying the defection, or the attempted defection I should say. But obviously there's no way to know if that testimony was coerced or if this was in fact a truthful response to what was a rumour, and so we don't know.
ELEANOR HALL: What's likely to happen to him and his family if indeed he was trying to defect?
MICHAEL WAHID HANNA: If so I would assume the worst. We know what this regime is capable of and obviously I think it would be imprisonment and perhaps much worse. So I think it would be a very grizzly fate if that story is true.
ELEANOR HALL: Now it turns out that the prime minister was able to get apparently ten families out of Syria with him. To what extent would the opposition Free Syrian Army have been involved in helping him and his family escape?
MICHAEL WAHID HANNA: Well I mean I think the Free Syrian Army, it's a description for a very broad based phenomenon and so clearly to pull off something like this would require a lot of logistical assistance, planning and a lot of forethought.
So to get this many people out of the country for this type of defector who would have a lot of surveillance following him at all times - clearly there was quite a bit of planning involved and it would have required significant assistance from other actors.
ELEANOR HALL: And what does it say about the regime, that it didn't suspect that he was about to defect?
MICHAEL WAHID HANNA: Well I mean we don't know exactly what led up to this process, I assume that they suspect the worst of just about everybody and I think, you know, we will hear more about this in future months.
I think the regime is very vigilant and it speaks to how much is at stake for a lot of these people in trying to pull off something this treacherous.
ELEANOR HALL: And indeed if the regime is so vigilant, then this really was a coup, to get him and his family out.
MICHAEL WAHID HANNA: Absolutely, I mean I think to get any high level defection, this was you know the prime minister of a re-shuffled cabinet - anybody of that level I think is clearly, it is a huge symbolic loss for the regime.
Whether the regime is crumbling or not I think will become clear in future days, but symbolically it's a huge loss.
ELEANOR HALL: Is it likely that this defection could encourage others or could it be the reserve, with as we pointed out the finance minister having to go on state television and say that he wasn't going to defect.
MICHAEL WAHID HANNA: I think it might encourage other Sunnis to defect, I think the big question in front of us now is whether we will see breakaways from inside the core of the regime, the Alawi core. If we did see such a thing I think it would be highly significant and you know might signal the end of the regime.
ELEANOR HALL: Well the White House and the French government are among those hailing this defection as a turning point signalling the end of the regime or at least its crumbling. What is your prediction about how quickly this will now end?
MICHAEL WAHID HANNA: I think you know there are a lot of caveats in connection to that statement that the regime is crumbling. We don't know when, maybe it's days or weeks or months and I've been cautious since the start about heralding the imminent demise of the regime.
The dynamics of the conflict have shown that there is a certain core that is willing to fight. Now that might not be sustainable. It could be days frankly, we just don't know in terms of the internal dynamics of the regime and the possibility for defections.
But I think it's incredibly difficult to know at the moment and I think we should be wary of those heralding imminent collapse.
ELEANOR HALL: Dr Hanna, thanks very much for joining us.
MICHAEL WAHID HANNA: Thankyou.
ELEANOR HALL: That's Syria specialist Dr Michael Hanna from the US Council on Foreign Relations.
ELEANOR HALL: Now to Syria, and the defection of the county's prime minister, Riyad Hijab, who was appointed by president Bashar al-Assad only months ago.
Mr Hijab is now in a secret location outside Syria but his spokesman read a statement denouncing the government he has just deserted as a "terrorist regime".
RIYAD HIJAB'S SPOKESMAN (translation): I address you today at this grave hour, where the country is living under the brunt of genocide and brutal killing against unarmed people who are simply demanding freedom and dignity. I declare to the Syrian people that I have defected from the terrorist, murderous regime, and I'm joining the holy revolution.
ELEANOR HALL: It is the highest level political defection from the regime and the French and U.S. governments have already welcomed it.
Syria specialist at the Century Foundation, Michael Wahid Hanna, says things could change very quickly in the next few days, but he says this is not necessarily the death knell for the Assad regime.
Dr Hanna, who is also a member of the US Council on Foreign Relations, joined me earlier from Bridgehampton in New York.
MICHAEL WAHID HANNA: It's clearly a very significant, symbolic loss. This is a man who was appointed only several months ago to restore confidence, so his defection is one more blow to a reeling regime.
I think one point that is important is that he is also a Sunni, as with the previous high profile defections, we have not seen any from the Alawi inner core of the regime, and I think that's something that amplifies the emerging sectarian dynamics and the struggle is defined in a much more sectarian tone.
ELEANOR HALL: How difficult would it have been for someone so high up in the Assad government to get out of the country, along with his family essentially under the nose of president Assad?
MICHAEL WAHID HANNA: Well obviously the regime has been working on their contingency plans for decades, in the sense of trying to coup proof the regime. We know that people have been separated from their families and extended families and circles of acquaintances even are open to retribution. So it is a very difficult process and the regime is clearly on the lookout in terms of trying to monitor the behaviour of high officials.
And I think what this also does and in having another significant Sunni figure defect, it will make the loyalties of all, or almost all high level Sunni officials suspect in the eyes of the regime and I think it will increase the level of probably rightful paranoia that there are probably others who would defect if given the opportunity.
ELEANOR HALL: Well there are also reports that the finance minister attempted to defect. What have you heard about that?
MICHAEL WAHID HANNA: I saw similar reports, I know that he appeared on state TV later in the day after the initial reports had emerged denying the defection, or the attempted defection I should say. But obviously there's no way to know if that testimony was coerced or if this was in fact a truthful response to what was a rumour, and so we don't know.
ELEANOR HALL: What's likely to happen to him and his family if indeed he was trying to defect?
MICHAEL WAHID HANNA: If so I would assume the worst. We know what this regime is capable of and obviously I think it would be imprisonment and perhaps much worse. So I think it would be a very grizzly fate if that story is true.
ELEANOR HALL: Now it turns out that the prime minister was able to get apparently ten families out of Syria with him. To what extent would the opposition Free Syrian Army have been involved in helping him and his family escape?
MICHAEL WAHID HANNA: Well I mean I think the Free Syrian Army, it's a description for a very broad based phenomenon and so clearly to pull off something like this would require a lot of logistical assistance, planning and a lot of forethought.
So to get this many people out of the country for this type of defector who would have a lot of surveillance following him at all times - clearly there was quite a bit of planning involved and it would have required significant assistance from other actors.
ELEANOR HALL: And what does it say about the regime, that it didn't suspect that he was about to defect?
MICHAEL WAHID HANNA: Well I mean we don't know exactly what led up to this process, I assume that they suspect the worst of just about everybody and I think, you know, we will hear more about this in future months.
I think the regime is very vigilant and it speaks to how much is at stake for a lot of these people in trying to pull off something this treacherous.
ELEANOR HALL: And indeed if the regime is so vigilant, then this really was a coup, to get him and his family out.
MICHAEL WAHID HANNA: Absolutely, I mean I think to get any high level defection, this was you know the prime minister of a re-shuffled cabinet - anybody of that level I think is clearly, it is a huge symbolic loss for the regime.
Whether the regime is crumbling or not I think will become clear in future days, but symbolically it's a huge loss.
ELEANOR HALL: Is it likely that this defection could encourage others or could it be the reserve, with as we pointed out the finance minister having to go on state television and say that he wasn't going to defect.
MICHAEL WAHID HANNA: I think it might encourage other Sunnis to defect, I think the big question in front of us now is whether we will see breakaways from inside the core of the regime, the Alawi core. If we did see such a thing I think it would be highly significant and you know might signal the end of the regime.
ELEANOR HALL: Well the White House and the French government are among those hailing this defection as a turning point signalling the end of the regime or at least its crumbling. What is your prediction about how quickly this will now end?
MICHAEL WAHID HANNA: I think you know there are a lot of caveats in connection to that statement that the regime is crumbling. We don't know when, maybe it's days or weeks or months and I've been cautious since the start about heralding the imminent demise of the regime.
The dynamics of the conflict have shown that there is a certain core that is willing to fight. Now that might not be sustainable. It could be days frankly, we just don't know in terms of the internal dynamics of the regime and the possibility for defections.
But I think it's incredibly difficult to know at the moment and I think we should be wary of those heralding imminent collapse.
ELEANOR HALL: Dr Hanna, thanks very much for joining us.
MICHAEL WAHID HANNA: Thankyou.
ELEANOR HALL: That's Syria specialist Dr Michael Hanna from the US Council on Foreign Relations.