WASHINGTON (Reuters) - So what now?The U.S. House of Representatives' rejection of a bill to raise taxes on just 0.18 percent of Americans - those making more than $1 million a year - has raised questions about the Republican-led chamber's ability to approve any plan to avert the looming "fiscal cliff."
Unless President Barack Obama and the U.S. Congress can forge a deal during the Christmas and New Year's holiday season, the largest economy in the world could be thrust back into a recession because of the steep tax increases and spending cuts that are due to begin in January.The threat of across-the-board government spending cuts and tax increases - about $600 billion worth - was intended to shock Democrats and House Republicans into moving past their many differences to approve a plan that would bring tax relief to most Americans and curb runaway federal spending.
For weeks, Obama and House Speaker John Boehner, the top Republican in Congress, have struggled to find a compromise.
After a glimmer of hope that a deal was close, Boehner - apparently under pressure from anti-tax House Republicans aligned with the conservative Tea Party movement - pressed the "pause" button on negotiations. He then tried to push a backup plan through the House late on Thursday, only to see his fellow Republicans kill it.
While the House is controlled by the Republicans, the Senate is controlled by Obama's fellow Democrats.
Where do Obama and Congress go from here? Here are some possible scenarios.
* Obama and Boehner go back into their secret negotiations.
Before Boehner started touting his failed "Plan B" to boost taxes on those who make more than $1 million, he and Obama were moving closer together on a plan to raise taxes on certain high-income Americans and cut spending. They could pick up where they left off and quickly cut a deal to bridge the gap.
But a compromise with possibly $1 trillion in new taxes and $1 trillion in new, long-term spending cuts could be a tough sell for both Republicans and Democrats in Congress.
Boehner would have to sell enough Republicans on the idea of tax increases. Obama, meanwhile, would have to get Democrats in Congress to back cuts to some social safety net programs such as Social Security pensions and Medicare and Medicaid health insurance for the elderly and poor. House Republicans appear to be the tougher sell.
* A huge drop in the stock market drop sends a loud message to Washington politicians to stop arguing and cut a quick but meaningful deal.
That is what happened in late September 2008, after Congress rejected a massive financial bailout package despite warnings by Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke and then-Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson of an economic collapse if the bill failed.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average plunged more than 700 points and Congress quickly reversed course, approving the $700 billion Troubled Asset Relief Program just days later.
The "fiscal cliff" may not be as dramatic a situation, but the tax increases and cuts in federal spending could deal a stiff blow to the economy.
* No deal happens in the dwindling days of 2012 and the U.S. government jumps off the fiscal cliff - at least temporarily.
On January 1, income taxes would go up on just about everyone. During the first week of January, Congress could scramble and get a quick deal on taxes and the $109 billion in automatic spending cuts that most lawmakers want to avoid.
Why could they reach a deal in January, if they fail in December?
Unless President Barack Obama and the U.S. Congress can forge a deal during the Christmas and New Year's holiday season, the largest economy in the world could be thrust back into a recession because of the steep tax increases and spending cuts that are due to begin in January.The threat of across-the-board government spending cuts and tax increases - about $600 billion worth - was intended to shock Democrats and House Republicans into moving past their many differences to approve a plan that would bring tax relief to most Americans and curb runaway federal spending.
For weeks, Obama and House Speaker John Boehner, the top Republican in Congress, have struggled to find a compromise.
After a glimmer of hope that a deal was close, Boehner - apparently under pressure from anti-tax House Republicans aligned with the conservative Tea Party movement - pressed the "pause" button on negotiations. He then tried to push a backup plan through the House late on Thursday, only to see his fellow Republicans kill it.
While the House is controlled by the Republicans, the Senate is controlled by Obama's fellow Democrats.
Where do Obama and Congress go from here? Here are some possible scenarios.
* Obama and Boehner go back into their secret negotiations.
Before Boehner started touting his failed "Plan B" to boost taxes on those who make more than $1 million, he and Obama were moving closer together on a plan to raise taxes on certain high-income Americans and cut spending. They could pick up where they left off and quickly cut a deal to bridge the gap.
But a compromise with possibly $1 trillion in new taxes and $1 trillion in new, long-term spending cuts could be a tough sell for both Republicans and Democrats in Congress.
Boehner would have to sell enough Republicans on the idea of tax increases. Obama, meanwhile, would have to get Democrats in Congress to back cuts to some social safety net programs such as Social Security pensions and Medicare and Medicaid health insurance for the elderly and poor. House Republicans appear to be the tougher sell.
* A huge drop in the stock market drop sends a loud message to Washington politicians to stop arguing and cut a quick but meaningful deal.
That is what happened in late September 2008, after Congress rejected a massive financial bailout package despite warnings by Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke and then-Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson of an economic collapse if the bill failed.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average plunged more than 700 points and Congress quickly reversed course, approving the $700 billion Troubled Asset Relief Program just days later.
The "fiscal cliff" may not be as dramatic a situation, but the tax increases and cuts in federal spending could deal a stiff blow to the economy.
* No deal happens in the dwindling days of 2012 and the U.S. government jumps off the fiscal cliff - at least temporarily.
On January 1, income taxes would go up on just about everyone. During the first week of January, Congress could scramble and get a quick deal on taxes and the $109 billion in automatic spending cuts that most lawmakers want to avoid.
Why could they reach a deal in January, if they fail in December?