[h=3]By NEIL KING JR.[/h]A new poll finds that President Barack Obama and Republican nominee Mitt Romney remain deadlocked in Virginia, a state that mirrored the national tally in 2008 and that could do so again Tuesday.
Taken just days before the election, the Wall Street Journal/NBC News/Marist Poll survey shows Mr. Obama moving a step ahead of his rival, 48% to 47%, among likely voters, after lagging behind by the same margin four weeks ago.
Those results, which are rounded to the nearest whole number, mask how evenly divided the state really is. Among the 1,165 likely voters polled, Mr. Obama was ahead by exactly five voters, or four-tenths of one percent.
Virginia offered perhaps the country's best reflection of the temperament and leanings of the national electorate in 2008, with final tallies that nearly matched the share of the vote that went to Mr. Obama and Sen. John McCain nationally. This year, the state could again prove a reliable weathervane.
"This is a state that could go either way and could turn out to be typical of the entire country," said Lee Miringoff, director of the Marist Institute for Public Opinion at Marist College, which conducted the survey.
The poll, conducted Thursday and Friday, had a margin of error of plus or minus 2.9 percentage points.
As a snapshot of a battleground state in the waning days of the campaign, the poll underscored some of the advances that Mr. Romney has made in the state and the challenges Mr. Obama still faces.
Voters have come to like Mr. Romney more, with half now holding a favorable impression of the former Massachusetts governor, up from 46% in September. The Republican also gets slightly better marks on which candidate is seen as best to handle the economy, leading Mr. Obama 48% to 46%.
The share of the electorate that now disapproves of the president's job performance has inched up to 48%, from 45% in September, so the number of those approving and disapproving of his handling of the presidency are now even. That also means that the president's job approval is on par with his support among the electorate, suggesting it may be difficult for him to expand his vote count much closer to 50%.
The Journal poll didn't include the names of three lesser-known candidates who will appear on the Virginia presidential ballot, including former Rep. Virgil Goode (R., Va.) of the Constitution Party and Libertarian Gary Johnson. In other recent polls of the state, third-party candidates have garnered about 4% of the vote, suggesting that one of the two major-party candidates can carry the state with less than 50% support.
Women voters support Mr. Obama by 51% to 45% in Virginia, a smaller gap than seen in many other battleground states and an advantage that is half what it was for the president in the last Journal poll of Virginia just four weeks ago.
At the same time, Mr. Romney's edge among men is one-third what it was four weeks ago. He has 50% support among men, to 45% for Mr. Obama.
Far fewer voters in Virginia than in other battleground states say they have already voted or planned to vote before Election Day, a function of Virginia's limited opportunities for early voting. Of the 15% who say they have or will vote early, Mr. Obama leads, 59% to 38%, while Mr. Romney leads among those who say they will vote on Election Day, 51% to 45%.
While the president's approval rating hasn't budged much, Virginia voters have grown markedly more optimistic about the course of the country. Close to half the state's voters now think the country is on the right track, up from 42% in September.
As in polls last week of Ohio and Florida, Mr. Obama won high marks among Virginia voters for his handling of the aftermath of Sandy, the huge storm that slammed the Northeast early last week. Just over seven in 10 voters—and half of all Republicans polled—approved of his actions.
Write to Neil King Jr. at [email protected]
The Wall Street Journal / NBC News / Marist Poll survey of Virginia was based on landline and cellphone interviews of adults 18 years of age and older. The sample included 1,165 likely voters.
The survey was conducted by the Marist College Institute for Public Opinion from Nov. 1-2 with live interviewers. Telephone numbers were chosen to ensure a random selection of both landline and cellphone numbers. Some 21% of interviews were conducted with likely voters reached by cellphone.
Some 33% of likely voters identified themselves as Democrats, 30% as Republicans and 36% as independent or other.
Results are statistically significant within plus or minus 2.9 percentage points. Sample tolerances for subgroups within each state are larger.
Taken just days before the election, the Wall Street Journal/NBC News/Marist Poll survey shows Mr. Obama moving a step ahead of his rival, 48% to 47%, among likely voters, after lagging behind by the same margin four weeks ago.
Those results, which are rounded to the nearest whole number, mask how evenly divided the state really is. Among the 1,165 likely voters polled, Mr. Obama was ahead by exactly five voters, or four-tenths of one percent.
Virginia offered perhaps the country's best reflection of the temperament and leanings of the national electorate in 2008, with final tallies that nearly matched the share of the vote that went to Mr. Obama and Sen. John McCain nationally. This year, the state could again prove a reliable weathervane.
"This is a state that could go either way and could turn out to be typical of the entire country," said Lee Miringoff, director of the Marist Institute for Public Opinion at Marist College, which conducted the survey.
The poll, conducted Thursday and Friday, had a margin of error of plus or minus 2.9 percentage points.
As a snapshot of a battleground state in the waning days of the campaign, the poll underscored some of the advances that Mr. Romney has made in the state and the challenges Mr. Obama still faces.
Voters have come to like Mr. Romney more, with half now holding a favorable impression of the former Massachusetts governor, up from 46% in September. The Republican also gets slightly better marks on which candidate is seen as best to handle the economy, leading Mr. Obama 48% to 46%.
The share of the electorate that now disapproves of the president's job performance has inched up to 48%, from 45% in September, so the number of those approving and disapproving of his handling of the presidency are now even. That also means that the president's job approval is on par with his support among the electorate, suggesting it may be difficult for him to expand his vote count much closer to 50%.
The Journal poll didn't include the names of three lesser-known candidates who will appear on the Virginia presidential ballot, including former Rep. Virgil Goode (R., Va.) of the Constitution Party and Libertarian Gary Johnson. In other recent polls of the state, third-party candidates have garnered about 4% of the vote, suggesting that one of the two major-party candidates can carry the state with less than 50% support.
Women voters support Mr. Obama by 51% to 45% in Virginia, a smaller gap than seen in many other battleground states and an advantage that is half what it was for the president in the last Journal poll of Virginia just four weeks ago.
At the same time, Mr. Romney's edge among men is one-third what it was four weeks ago. He has 50% support among men, to 45% for Mr. Obama.
Far fewer voters in Virginia than in other battleground states say they have already voted or planned to vote before Election Day, a function of Virginia's limited opportunities for early voting. Of the 15% who say they have or will vote early, Mr. Obama leads, 59% to 38%, while Mr. Romney leads among those who say they will vote on Election Day, 51% to 45%.
While the president's approval rating hasn't budged much, Virginia voters have grown markedly more optimistic about the course of the country. Close to half the state's voters now think the country is on the right track, up from 42% in September.
As in polls last week of Ohio and Florida, Mr. Obama won high marks among Virginia voters for his handling of the aftermath of Sandy, the huge storm that slammed the Northeast early last week. Just over seven in 10 voters—and half of all Republicans polled—approved of his actions.
Write to Neil King Jr. at [email protected]
The Wall Street Journal / NBC News / Marist Poll survey of Virginia was based on landline and cellphone interviews of adults 18 years of age and older. The sample included 1,165 likely voters.
The survey was conducted by the Marist College Institute for Public Opinion from Nov. 1-2 with live interviewers. Telephone numbers were chosen to ensure a random selection of both landline and cellphone numbers. Some 21% of interviews were conducted with likely voters reached by cellphone.
Some 33% of likely voters identified themselves as Democrats, 30% as Republicans and 36% as independent or other.
Results are statistically significant within plus or minus 2.9 percentage points. Sample tolerances for subgroups within each state are larger.