President Obama’s decision to begin directly arming Syrian rebels comes nearly two years after he first called for Bashar al-Assad to resign — and at a time when the Syrian leader’s forces and outside friends have turned the war back in his favor.
In taking a modest first step onto Syria’s battlefield, Obama is joining a proxy war far more complicated than it was even a few months ago. It now features the United States and its European and Arab allies on one side, with Russia, Iran and its sponsored militias on the other.
Graphic
Timeline: Major events in Syria’s tumultuous uprising that began in March 2011.
More from PostPolitics
Aaron Blake
A room on the 2nd floor of the Ronald Reagan Building in D.C., was Iowa 2016 as the two men gave very different pitches.
Aaron Blake
The former Florida governor said the U.S. economy needs the labor of young immigrants and immigrants are "more fertile."
Glenn Kessler
FACT CHECKER | Appearing on the Jimmy Fallon show, the New Jersey governor gave a less than complete account of the special election.
Chris Cillizza
How Hillary ignored history in 2008 -- and how she won't in 2016.
Read more
The American policy shift is being dictated by the urgency of the situation on the ground in Syria and the problems that poses for achieving a negotiated end to the civil war on terms that Obama favors.
U.S. officials maintain that Assad cannot remain in power under any agreement that might emerge from a future peace conference in Geneva, a process that Secretary of State John F. Kerry and Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov endorsed last month.
But with Syrian government forces now winning the war, there is little incentive for Assad to agree to any deal that would require him to give up power. His recent military gains have been propelled by the arrival of Iranian-backed Hezbollah fighters from neighboring Lebanon and a steady supply of Russian weapons.
“Between now and then, there does need to be a change of things on the ground,” said a Western diplomat, who requested anonymity to discuss internal diplomatic deliberation regarding Syria, referring to future peace talks. “This is an important part of the preparation for Geneva.”
The topic will be taken up by leaders of the Group of Eight, who meet Monday in Northern Ireland. Obama will also see Russian President Vladimir Putin on the summit’s sidelines to discuss Syria, among other issues.
On the eve of the summit Thursday, administration officials announced that they have concluded that Assad has used chemical weapons against opposition forces, crossing a “red line” that Obama had drawn previously. French, British and Israeli officials had come to the same conclusion several months ago.
But Russian officials on Friday called the evidence shared by the U.S. administration and its European allies inconclusive, setting up a difficult meeting between Obama and Putin in the days ahead.
“We still continue to discuss with the Russians whether there’s a way to bring together elements of the regime and the opposition to achieve a political settlement,” Ben Rhodes, the deputy national security adviser for strategic communications, told reporters Friday. “There are no illusions that that’s going to be easy.”
Western diplomats say Putin is unlikely to soften his support for Assad at the G-8 summit, given Russia’s strategic interest in preserving the Syrian leader in power and in facing down a U.S.-backed policy initiative to oust him.
Alexander Lukashevich, spokesman for the Russian Foreign Ministry, said at a briefing Friday in Moscow that reports about the American decision to send arms to the Syrian opposition “cannot fail to be perceived with serious concerns.”
In taking a modest first step onto Syria’s battlefield, Obama is joining a proxy war far more complicated than it was even a few months ago. It now features the United States and its European and Arab allies on one side, with Russia, Iran and its sponsored militias on the other.
Graphic
Timeline: Major events in Syria’s tumultuous uprising that began in March 2011.
More from PostPolitics
Aaron Blake A room on the 2nd floor of the Ronald Reagan Building in D.C., was Iowa 2016 as the two men gave very different pitches.
Aaron Blake The former Florida governor said the U.S. economy needs the labor of young immigrants and immigrants are "more fertile."
Glenn Kessler FACT CHECKER | Appearing on the Jimmy Fallon show, the New Jersey governor gave a less than complete account of the special election.
Chris Cillizza How Hillary ignored history in 2008 -- and how she won't in 2016.
Read more
The American policy shift is being dictated by the urgency of the situation on the ground in Syria and the problems that poses for achieving a negotiated end to the civil war on terms that Obama favors.
U.S. officials maintain that Assad cannot remain in power under any agreement that might emerge from a future peace conference in Geneva, a process that Secretary of State John F. Kerry and Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov endorsed last month.
But with Syrian government forces now winning the war, there is little incentive for Assad to agree to any deal that would require him to give up power. His recent military gains have been propelled by the arrival of Iranian-backed Hezbollah fighters from neighboring Lebanon and a steady supply of Russian weapons.
“Between now and then, there does need to be a change of things on the ground,” said a Western diplomat, who requested anonymity to discuss internal diplomatic deliberation regarding Syria, referring to future peace talks. “This is an important part of the preparation for Geneva.”
The topic will be taken up by leaders of the Group of Eight, who meet Monday in Northern Ireland. Obama will also see Russian President Vladimir Putin on the summit’s sidelines to discuss Syria, among other issues.
On the eve of the summit Thursday, administration officials announced that they have concluded that Assad has used chemical weapons against opposition forces, crossing a “red line” that Obama had drawn previously. French, British and Israeli officials had come to the same conclusion several months ago.
But Russian officials on Friday called the evidence shared by the U.S. administration and its European allies inconclusive, setting up a difficult meeting between Obama and Putin in the days ahead.
“We still continue to discuss with the Russians whether there’s a way to bring together elements of the regime and the opposition to achieve a political settlement,” Ben Rhodes, the deputy national security adviser for strategic communications, told reporters Friday. “There are no illusions that that’s going to be easy.”
Western diplomats say Putin is unlikely to soften his support for Assad at the G-8 summit, given Russia’s strategic interest in preserving the Syrian leader in power and in facing down a U.S.-backed policy initiative to oust him.
Alexander Lukashevich, spokesman for the Russian Foreign Ministry, said at a briefing Friday in Moscow that reports about the American decision to send arms to the Syrian opposition “cannot fail to be perceived with serious concerns.”