[h=3]By NEIL KING JR.[/h]Mitt Romney and President Barack Obama are running neck and neck in the battleground states of North Carolina and Nevada, new polling shows, while Mr. Romney faces an uphill battle to win New Hampshire, a state he picked to launch his campaign and that has long served as a second home.
The new Wall Street Journal/NBC News/Marist Poll surveys of likely voters in the three states underscored the mounting challenges the Republican nominee faces as he tries to chart a path to victory just over a month before Election Day.
APPresident Barack Obama at a rally in Virginia Beach, Va., Thursday.
APGov. Mitt Romney campaigns at American Legion Post 176 in Springfield, Va., Thursday.
Mr. Romney lags behind Mr. Obama by two percentage points in North Carolina and Nevada, and by seven points in New Hampshire, according to the surveys released Thursday.
The surveys mark the completion of an initial, post-convention round of Journal polling this month in the country's top nine battleground states, which also included Ohio, Florida, Virginia, Colorado, Iowa and Wisconsin. Mr. Romney trailed the president in all nine states, though often within the poll's margin of error.
"Clearly, you can target an individual state. But what Romney needs is a broader shift across the electorate," said Lee Miringoff, polling director for the Marist Institute for Public Polling, which conducted the surveys.
Mr. Obama won North Carolina by a tiny sliver in 2008, and many conservatives believed it would fall back into the Republican column by now. Both parties spent huge sums on television ads in the state over the summer. Mr. Obama leads in the state, 48% to 46%, among likely voters, according to the new survey.
Democrats had predicted that Nevada would be safe Obama territory by now, but it remains competitive. The president won the state by 12 percentage points in 2008, but leads now 49% to 47%, the new survey showed.
Conducted from Sept. 23-25, all three polls had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points.
The new polls reveal some lingering challenges for Mr. Obama, particularly in converting his support into votes. He continues to garner support among young voters in all three states, but the effect of that backing tapers off sharply when the pollsters assess how likely those supporters are to vote.
In Nevada, for instance, Mr. Obama leads 51% to 44% among registered voters, a seven-point margin that shrinks to two percentage points among those voters likely to cast ballots.
The surveys also found Mr. Romney doing markedly better than the president among independent voters in both Nevada and North Carolina.
As in other battleground states polled by the Journal this month, the new surveys showed Ms. Romney continuing to struggle with an image challenge.
In New Hampshire, where Mr. Romney has a family vacation compound on Lake Winnipesaukee near the town of Wolfboro, the former Massachusetts governor has seen a sharp drop in favorability since the start of the summer.
In June, when Marist last polled in the state, 45% of registered voters viewed Mr. Romney unfavorably. That number has since shot to 52% among both registered and likely voters in the new poll.
At the same time, half of registered and likely voters in New Hampshire say they approve of Mr. Obama's job performance, up from 47% in June, when the survey only sampled registered voters.
The new poll found Mr. Obama leading Mr. Romney 51% to 44% among likely voters in New Hampshire.
In all three states, Mr. Obama was essentially even with Mr. Romney on the question of who would do a better job handling the economy.
Campaign strategists from both parties look at the three states as important building blocks to an Electoral College majority. Mr. Romney, who faces a deepening challenge in Ohio and lags behind in many polls of Florida, will have to rely heavily on smaller, second-tier swing states like these if he falls short in one or more of the big battleground states.
As the election approaches, the polls showed signs that Mr. Obama is slowing reassembling the main blocs of his 2008 coalition, though with signs of less enthusiasm among young voters.
After the president came out in favor of gay marriage this summer, some analysts predicted he could face a backlash among socially conservative African-American voters in states such as North Carolina.
But the poll found 95% of black voters there backing Mr. Obama, compared to 3% for Mr. Romney. Mr. Obama, meanwhile, received the support of just a third of the state's white voters.
In Nevada, where Hispanics constitute a fifth of the electorate, Mr. Obama received the support of 62% of Latino likely voters, compared to 36% for Mr. Romney.
The president racked up double-digit leads among female voters in all three states, while Mr. Romney did well among voters over 60 in Nevada and North Carolina.
The polls come as the number of up-for-grab voters continues to shrink. In each of the polls, just 1% of registered voters who have picked a candidate said they could still change their minds, and 6% or fewer were undecided.
Write to Neil King Jr. at [email protected]
The new Wall Street Journal/NBC News/Marist Poll surveys of likely voters in the three states underscored the mounting challenges the Republican nominee faces as he tries to chart a path to victory just over a month before Election Day.
APPresident Barack Obama at a rally in Virginia Beach, Va., Thursday.
APGov. Mitt Romney campaigns at American Legion Post 176 in Springfield, Va., Thursday.
Mr. Romney lags behind Mr. Obama by two percentage points in North Carolina and Nevada, and by seven points in New Hampshire, according to the surveys released Thursday.
The surveys mark the completion of an initial, post-convention round of Journal polling this month in the country's top nine battleground states, which also included Ohio, Florida, Virginia, Colorado, Iowa and Wisconsin. Mr. Romney trailed the president in all nine states, though often within the poll's margin of error.
"Clearly, you can target an individual state. But what Romney needs is a broader shift across the electorate," said Lee Miringoff, polling director for the Marist Institute for Public Polling, which conducted the surveys.
Mr. Obama won North Carolina by a tiny sliver in 2008, and many conservatives believed it would fall back into the Republican column by now. Both parties spent huge sums on television ads in the state over the summer. Mr. Obama leads in the state, 48% to 46%, among likely voters, according to the new survey.
Democrats had predicted that Nevada would be safe Obama territory by now, but it remains competitive. The president won the state by 12 percentage points in 2008, but leads now 49% to 47%, the new survey showed.
Conducted from Sept. 23-25, all three polls had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points.
The new polls reveal some lingering challenges for Mr. Obama, particularly in converting his support into votes. He continues to garner support among young voters in all three states, but the effect of that backing tapers off sharply when the pollsters assess how likely those supporters are to vote.
In Nevada, for instance, Mr. Obama leads 51% to 44% among registered voters, a seven-point margin that shrinks to two percentage points among those voters likely to cast ballots.
The surveys also found Mr. Romney doing markedly better than the president among independent voters in both Nevada and North Carolina.
As in other battleground states polled by the Journal this month, the new surveys showed Ms. Romney continuing to struggle with an image challenge.
In New Hampshire, where Mr. Romney has a family vacation compound on Lake Winnipesaukee near the town of Wolfboro, the former Massachusetts governor has seen a sharp drop in favorability since the start of the summer.
In June, when Marist last polled in the state, 45% of registered voters viewed Mr. Romney unfavorably. That number has since shot to 52% among both registered and likely voters in the new poll.
At the same time, half of registered and likely voters in New Hampshire say they approve of Mr. Obama's job performance, up from 47% in June, when the survey only sampled registered voters.
The new poll found Mr. Obama leading Mr. Romney 51% to 44% among likely voters in New Hampshire.
In all three states, Mr. Obama was essentially even with Mr. Romney on the question of who would do a better job handling the economy.
Campaign strategists from both parties look at the three states as important building blocks to an Electoral College majority. Mr. Romney, who faces a deepening challenge in Ohio and lags behind in many polls of Florida, will have to rely heavily on smaller, second-tier swing states like these if he falls short in one or more of the big battleground states.
As the election approaches, the polls showed signs that Mr. Obama is slowing reassembling the main blocs of his 2008 coalition, though with signs of less enthusiasm among young voters.
After the president came out in favor of gay marriage this summer, some analysts predicted he could face a backlash among socially conservative African-American voters in states such as North Carolina.
But the poll found 95% of black voters there backing Mr. Obama, compared to 3% for Mr. Romney. Mr. Obama, meanwhile, received the support of just a third of the state's white voters.
In Nevada, where Hispanics constitute a fifth of the electorate, Mr. Obama received the support of 62% of Latino likely voters, compared to 36% for Mr. Romney.
The president racked up double-digit leads among female voters in all three states, while Mr. Romney did well among voters over 60 in Nevada and North Carolina.
The polls come as the number of up-for-grab voters continues to shrink. In each of the polls, just 1% of registered voters who have picked a candidate said they could still change their minds, and 6% or fewer were undecided.
Write to Neil King Jr. at [email protected]