Nokia CES Predictions?

Here's another question: do you see Meego ever really shipping and making an impact? I know there are current initial software builds, but when it comes to devices that will actually ship, I'm getting a hint of vapors (think, Microsoft Courier).

If Meego doesn't work out, it's not really a problem for Intel. It's a huge existential problem for Nokia though. Them not scooping up Palm and WebOS, on the cheap, when they had the chance, is looking more and more like the blunder of the last decade.
 
It would be nice to know where they are at reguarding SW support. Someone posted before if the N95 is EOL..we don't know. Now, we are wondering further support for N97 (v30 ??) I know there developers are busy doing stuff..it would be nice to know where they are at with certain devices. Wouldn't it be nice to know that 2011 has sw updates due by midyear for the following devices...etc,etc. Is this a realistic question to ask Nokia ? If not now....maybe at MWC next month..
 
The tablet market is still fledgling and so people should be open to new ideas as long as the eye candy is there. I can't see why MeeGo couldn't get a kick at the can if they get some products out there running it. I haven't seen ChromeOS running on a netbook and yet I hear it's lightning quick. It's just a matter of slowly making people aware of what's available to them.
 
But Chrome OS is nearly done and already running on a netbook. There are hands on reviews from the usual list of tech blogs, even though the laptop isn't really ready to ship right now. Nobody can say with any confidence in what state Meego is in....or whether a device can ever get out the door, other than the WeTab that is, but that turned out to be such a turd, it doesn't really count.
 
With regards to MeeGo on Nokia phones, I think it's a lot closer to being ready than MeeGo for tablets because the UI is essentially a creation of Nokia's own that it was already working on for Maemo 6 Harmattan. MeeGo on other phones is about as far off as MeeGo for tablets, or about as far off as any given vendor's UI efforts might happen to be.

Nokia has a head start because it had been prepping Harmattan prior to the Maemo/Moblin merger. MeeGo 1.2 is scheduled for release in April and I'm guessing Nokia is targeting that build for the N9?
 
Sheesh - if you keep quoting sourceless speculative tidbits like that, I'll be forced to wonder aloud whether spreading FUD is your only purpose on this forum. Tone it down, because I can no longer tell whether you really have a zillion unnamed sources or are just spewing constant negativity.
 
I just read a lot of business news and finance related blogs, so there's always a lot of back and forth about rumors and such in those forums, Exhibit A: Zerohedge.

It's not FUD, but my outlook *does* tend to be towards the pessimistic/downside, as far as company performance.
 
Interestingly, I was talking to someone today who works at Nokia and he seemed to imply that Nokia had sold a lot more N8s than I thought they would have by now. That said, I think he was confused and in spite of the fact that he works there I doubt he would have specific knowledge. I brought up the 5 million number for the N8 and he said way more. Maybe he was thinking all S^3 or even all smartphones.

I guess we won't really find out until Nokia announces it. I certainly wouldn't take any American media or analyst opinion seriously.
 
Lets see...they could announce their stubbornness to move away from a dead OS that the world has left behind, and how cool it was to snub Android when they came calling. Then they could go on to talk about their new commitment to an OS platform that should have been released 2 years go that is still being developed and will never get app support b/c its so late to the game.

But hey the hardware is awesome most of the time.
 
Do you honestly think a nokia employee would say n8 sales are anything but stellar.

A Finnish analyst gave the n8 sales number. Very convenient.

If nokia did infact sell and not "ship" over 5 million handsets nokia would have already issued a press release ,especially while ces is in attendance and nothing new from nokia.

Don't forget carriers " shipped" back all those kin devices after dismal sales.

And that rumor about nokia's manufacturing channels being overwhelmed with n8's stopping them from building any other smart phones are laughable at best
 
The friend in question isn't some PR lackey. He's a software developer whom I worked with for over 3 years some time ago and with whom I have been in contact for almost 10 years in total (including the time we worked together). I find it highly improbable that he would knowingly lie to me. He has nothing to sell me and gains nothing by embellishing sales numbers.

On the other hand, I find it highly probable that he was simply confused and was perhaps referring to something else. It's also possible that he received information from some third party that was erroneous and was treating it as the truth when relaying it to me.

In any, case, I am fairly confident that his "way more" assertion is not correct.



To the best of my knowledge, Nokia has never released sales numbers for a device at any time other than during a press release of conference call accompanying quarterly/FY results. Maybe that's something that will change under Elop, but your assertion is not correct until such time as it does. They wouldn't have necessarily done anything.

As for your veiled assertion that Nokia is stuffing the channels and the implication that they are shipping and not selling, you'd have to provide some evidence to support that before I'd take you for anything other than a joker. I see nothing in Nokia's balance sheets to suggest that their accounts receivable are out of the ordinary or that they had an abnormal change in inventory or anything like that.



Your unsubstantiated opinion is worth about as much as anyone else's. I'll let you guess precisely how much...
 
My prediction is that sales are up YOY but margins will still be down, though better than summer's. They might be able to ship maybe at least 30 million devices for the last quarter. Still their overall marketshare is down since the smartphone market is growing at an even faster rate and much of that new space is being rapidly occupied by iPhone and Android.
 
speaking of Meego...
anyone remember the alpha builds for tablets that showed up middle of last year...
Android 3.0 focused on tablets looks darn close....
 
Well this is a tricky subject to tackle. Last quarter margins were artificially inflated by component shortages that cost Nokia sales in the low end of the product spectrum. They couldn't make enough low-cost, low-margin phones to meet demand, basically, due to component shortages and this artificially inflated margins by shifting the product mix to relatively higher-end, higher-margin product.

If Nokia was able to resolve its component shortages and as a result was able to ship low-end phones to meet demand for Q4 we could see margins fall sequentially, even with improved volume in the higher-margin smartphone segment thanks to the S^3 series of devices. If they weren't able to resolve the issues, and this was implied to be the likely case during the last conference call, we could see margins that are sequentially higher than last quarter's. Maybe quite a bit higher given the new phones.

Market share will definitely be down, both in smartphones and in aggregate, but that's not really a surprise given the explosive growth of smartphones. Nokia has actually been keeping pace pretty well with this growth on an industry-average basis but Android is going absolutely gangbusters.

Nokia shipped about 26.5M smartphones last Q. I think 30M is an easily-doable number for Nokia this Q and that they could potentially do as high as 34M given that this is the Christmas quarter and that there was pent-up demand for new models.

Insofar as "American" apps are concerned, Usablenet has been throwing a lot of "apps" up on the Ovi Store that mostly appear to be links to specially-made mobile sites for a very wide variety of American retail and service brands plus various utilities and transit systems too. It seems like there must be a hundred at least that have cropped up over the past week or two. Even more interesting, perhaps, is that a few people actually appear to be downloading and reviewing them. So there are a couple of Americans still buying Nokia products after all. :)
 
this is about right. they are cutting prices and margins to move phones. however, they will lose share as they aren't moving phones at the rate android is. I can not see a meego launch in the face of the Android onslaught. it would just be a really poor business decision. it may be a popular decision with the open source crowd. but shareholders will not like it.
 
what this tells me is that Nokia's entire product strategy is being reworked. I know that elop and nokia management have a huge meet the investment community conference early in 2011. I have serious doubts that meego is the answer for nokia. we will find out in another month or so.
 
Yes we all know that vultures I mean shareholders are swirling over Nokia just waiting for them to get Android, however people need to get over that Nokia is not going to get Android and let it go already.



Personally I like using Android, but I would never want to see Nokia get it. The more OS you have out there the better it is IMO for the industry, especially for keeping the competition in check...
 
I read that in February there's some really bad news, for Nokia and their investors, about to drop. Not related to devices or an OS per se, but about company performance.

My suspicion? The 4Q numbers and N8 sales likely came in WAY below expectation, and they expect the share price to take another hit. I know that they, worryingly for them, have been bleeding share in their emerging market strong holds, particularly in India and China.
 
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