The iPhone's likely success reminds me of why geeks like us aren't always the best predictors of what devices will win:
There's a common but flawed assumption among techno-futurists: that new technology is adopted chiefly on the basis of technological superiority rather than social factors.
In this case, it doesn't matter that the Evo 4G or Incredible have things like 4G, AMOLED touchscreens or 8-megapixel cameras. It won't even matter that their app policies will be less strict or that they'll support Flash. The reality is that they're both pitched to alpha nerds and aren't really there to please the average user. Someone sees the iPhone and says "I can play awesome games!" or "there's an app that helps me find the closest Starbucks." Apple does do a lot of marketing, but it also does understand that checking off lots of feature boxes doesn't mean anything if your user can't understand the UI or isn't told what they can do in meaningful ways.
