Investor Bet 850 MIL the US would get downgraded

Didn't like, George Soros or someone make a similar garable on the value of the british pound once upon a time? Maybe I'm way off but I thought I read about something like that happening once.
 
well ok it's not scientifically 50/50 but it's a two-outcome situation. so whatever, it's a X/Y outcome scenario, and he took a plunge on the downgrade, which isn't ridiculous considering many said we'd get it no matter what the outcome....he took no greater risk than a blackjack player. did he do it with a lot of money? i am sure his networth was such that he could absorb this loss
 
ok. the point is that it is newsworthy because it happened so close to the downgrade which was not a 50-50 scenario and it was for an incredibly huge figure in the futures, not cash market
 
if i put a loaded gun to my head and pull the trigger there's a 50/50 chance i'll die. i mean it either kills me or it doesn't. simple statistics, really.
 
So... what would have happened if we hadn't been downgraded? He'd have lost a few million, or what? Unless the whole 850-mill would have been vaporized, I don't really see the downside here.
 
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