I'm not saying that the Wii is not going to suceed, I'm saying that I hope that there are plenty of games coming out for it. I look at the GC library and I see maybe 6 games that I'd buy. I look at the games that came out with the Wii and I see only 1 game that I like (Zelda). I've seen the games for the XBox360 and to tell you the truth I wasn't impressed. The problem with the XBox360, as i see it, is one of reliability and backward compatibility. Since I like playing FPSs on my PC, that leaves me with stuff I can't get on the PC: RPGs and platformers (I don't do "on-line". Although I would have bought Half Life II for the console only because I hate Sierra's Steam. I'm hoping Vista takes care of the Administrator priviledge thing (where a game needs Admin privs to play, leaving the system vulnerable to hackers while on-line), along with getting viruses and spyware. But that may only be true for the 64-bit version.)
I want "Blue Dragon" to come to the Wii. If the XBox360 comes out with more RPGs then chances are that I'll pick one up, if only because it is cheaper than the PS3. I wish that the XBox360 used SD mem cards or USB mem sticks, though, because when it comes to deciding whether to go with expensive mem sticks or a one time shot HD, the economical way to go would be the HD. But when I see that I just paid $95 for a 320GB HD and an XBox360 20Gb HD is going for $100, I feel ripped off in buying the laptop sized HD. But you gotta pay for their software to make the HD work...
I'm not so sure that it can sell 100,000,000 units. If they can sell 10,000,000 units in one year then yes, it is a success. But if the numbers are not there then the developers may leave because they have to sell 500,000 copies of a game to make a profit. Seeing as, at best, 20% of the games are must haves, that leaves 80% with questionable profit margins. At $60 a pop, how many games do you buy a year? If you rent the same game and beat it in a week end are you likely to buy it? I say, no, not unless you love it.
Now, take that 20% and divide it by 5 gendres: shooters, fighters, sports (football, basketball, boxing, hockey), racing/flying, rpg, and you're looking at 4% of the games that you're likely to buy and keep. Which means that if they come out with 100 games the first year, then chances are that you'll likely buy about 8. Oh, you'll rent 20, youll read the reviews for 60, but you'll buy only a handful. That represents about a $500 investment. Not too bad; considering that you could spent $2500 on games in the first year. How much do you spend on games in a year's time? If you tend to buy every DVD and music CD that comes out, then chances are that you're better off than most people. I've been there. Reality sets in after awhile, though.
Just as 20% are must haves, 20% will be unadulterated garbage. That leaves 60% with 5 gendres, or 12% for your niche, like FPS or RPGs, if they are your thing. Are you likely to buy all these 12 games? Hardly. At best you'll buy 50%, or 6, since not every game in a gendre is likely to appeal to you.
Now, let's say that you have 100 PS2 games. You can't tell me that there aren't some that you couldn't get rid of. What is left is the games that you absolutely love. I bet you that they come out to about 20%.
Now, don't get me wrong, I am a graphics whore, too. But I want great mechanics to go with it, that especially includes the camera. Others may want great A.I. to go with it. And a game that doesn't cheat or frustrate. If you throw your controller against the wall when playing agame - step away from the console.
When it comes to the whole blu-Ray vs HD-DVD thing, the plain fact is that HD-DVD players are half the price of Blue-Ray. We, the People, are a picky bunch. I picked Beta and lost. If there is no graphical difference between the two formats the People are not likely to pick the twice expensive one. It's a matter of economics, plain and simple. In the case of VHS those extra 30 minutes did Beta in. Then the manufacturers got wise and did away with the 4 hour recording time. I always recorded in 2 hour mode. Yes, I can tell the difference between the 27MHZ PS2 DAC and my 54MHZ and 108MHZ DACs on my DVD players. I WANT something better. I figure in a year the prices on the Blue-Rays and HD-DVDs will halve until they become afforable by the masses, usually the $150 - $250 price point. But are movies being shot with digital cameras?, to allow better clarity? Not yet. So, I see no reason why I would want to buy an older movie which has low resolution to begin with and which is $10 - $15 more than a regular DVD. Older movies may need to be digitally enhanced to make them clearer, more vibrant, with better sound. (I noticed in one Blu-ray commercial where the selling point is that you can get to the main menu faster. That'll only last so long. Later on they will force commercials down our throats. Have you see the lastest Disney DVDs? They have over 20 commercials on them. I even had one DVD where the commericals started AFTER the movie play button was pushed, so I HAD to see the commercials.)
One problem with the Wii is that it isn't a truly next-gen box, which means that games coming out on the XB360 and PS3 won't be coming out on the Wii. Which means that Nintendo had better do a great job of creating a niche for itself, maybe making all their games with Cel Shading instead of discrete graphics. I am a HUGH fan of Cel Shading and Anime colouring and truly hope that the Wii becomes an RPGer's paradise. I also hope that Nintendo comes out with a Wii-II, Wii-III, Wii-IV, etc., where the processors keep getting more and more powerful. Why the hell does the Wii need a DVD? Why would I want to shorten the life of a diode by playing a movie on it? (The same could be said for the XB360 and PS3, playing movies will just shorten the life of the electro-mechanical mechanisms in them.)
