U
uneek
Guest
Explain to me how failing to perform on the other side of a swap or a short contract has any bearing on a mortgage market that was already going to pieces? If the counterparty calls and says they want the contract funded because FNMAs are down 20% in the past week and the seller tells them to eat crow, that will not save your payroll nor will it help joe schmoe make the payments on his mortgage & escalade. the counterparty has little if any recourse. they can take possession of a warehouse line full of the same FNMAs that they shorted, but there is little or no cash changing hands. The money that would have otherwise been available would not have gone to your payroll. It would have gone to underwrite a bond deal of which your company would be one small piece of. at some point, 5-10% of the companies in the bond portfolio would have trouble servicing their debts, and because of the leveraging used to make these bonds profitable (because the interest rates offered on the face were artificially low, and without leveraging by the IBanks these companies would not have gotten the loans in the first place), someone is going to eat it, hard. So what? All that means is that the bond deals stop. Bond deals that were not fundamentally viable in the first place, because they offered loans at interest rates that were far too low to make the investors any money. So the investors borrowed money from the federal government or other large institutions at interest rates that were even lower to make up the difference. IOW, the bond deals would have ordinarily resulted in a loss for the investors, but because the federal government subsidized interest rates and the risk of the underlying deals through guarrantees, these losses could be passed along the chain to other banks, investors, the federal reserve, etc. the only people who benefitted are the ones that got rid of the hot potato before it blew up, i.e. before someone stopped paying on the loans.
Anyway, back to the hedge contract. The only thing that happens is that the bank who went long on the contract no longer has the funds to lend GM or BoA mortgage ops another $300 million to play with. Since the industries that these two companies operate in are failing anyway, the effect of derivatives is marginal.
The problem was the funding of nonviable businesses in the first place. If you take this problem away, then the majority of America that in reality is lower middle class will have to return to a lower middle class lifestyle.
And that's exactly what's happening now. IBanking didn't wreck the economy. It took a lower middle class economy and gave it an upper middle class lifestyle for a couple of generations.
Anyway, back to the hedge contract. The only thing that happens is that the bank who went long on the contract no longer has the funds to lend GM or BoA mortgage ops another $300 million to play with. Since the industries that these two companies operate in are failing anyway, the effect of derivatives is marginal.
The problem was the funding of nonviable businesses in the first place. If you take this problem away, then the majority of America that in reality is lower middle class will have to return to a lower middle class lifestyle.
And that's exactly what's happening now. IBanking didn't wreck the economy. It took a lower middle class economy and gave it an upper middle class lifestyle for a couple of generations.