That was a TERRIBLE game... mind you, Jayne the Pain's been annoying me in the wings so it was inevitable it would be painful. I actually think Noel was suffering there, the whole thing about 'a long game' felt quite genuine I thought!
Greed or no greed? He was taken in by his own and others' overconfidence. It's so easy for the loudmouths looking on to ooze confidence when it isn't their game.