This is my first post, after reading the two part article.
I'm a Disney fan (obviously) so I'd like to point out some things you may not have realized that may also have contributed to to the current performance of Disney's latest films.
Fisrt, you suggested that if Disney's going to make another "princess movie", maybe next time it should come direct-to-video.
From this, it sounds to me like you either don't really care for/about those "princess films" and don't want to see Disney keep doing them, or at least don't want to see them as big as they were, in theaters. I hope I am not right about that assumption.
Second, Disney is about (or used to be about) making fantasy films, often based on literature, and that included fairy tales. They made fairy tale films. It wasn't about princesses, and it is only the late Princess line and girls going crazy over everything princess that has even bred the term "princess film". No one considered the first Disney film, Snow White and the Seven Dwarfs, a princess film when it came out long ago.
And so that's how Disney's films should be viewed today, though maybe today's Disney company really does now view the films as princess films, which is probably part of why the film is not as great as the films they made in the past, the ones they made just to be good fantasy films.
Walt Disney made fantasy films, all of his films were, and a lot of them involved magic and that kind of stuff. Fantasy and animation seemed like the perfect fit (they are). Those are the kinds of films Disney is known for and should be making, and one of those kinds of films was the first animated film to get nominated for Best Picture.
But Disney of late hasn't just strayed away from that. They have also tried to be more like other studios, with edgier and even whackier, often pop-culture derived humor, and CGI is even one of the things they've done to be like other studios to get more audiences. They're films of late just don't feel very classic Disney.
So I think you missed one reason why the recent films have underperformed. I know that some people for sure feel this way, but I also think that most people, generally, feels this way: they want to see a Disney classic again, they want to see Disney be Disney again, and as you even remarked on, Disney is trying not to be Disney lately.
What if the reason Enchanted was popular was't because it was un-Disney, but because it was so very, very Disney?
This would actually work with your theory on why Tinker Bell is successful. She's the closest thing to a Disney classic.
But now they've changed a classic Disney fairy tale version of Rapunzel to Tangled...
Well, I'm just throwing out there another theory on why those films didn't perform well. Those films weren't really classic Disney. The Princess and the Frog was a twisted, modern vesion of a classic fairy tale, not the traditional Disney way.
Oh, and one other thing. Those films also may have been good, but they weren't very, very good. So they're box office was good, but not very, very good like they hoped. I think their box office intake makes sense. The Princess and the Frog was good, but not outstanding, so it didn't do outstanding numbers.