obviously not an expert and am not privy to what exactly is going on Japanese networks, but just looking at
lists in Wikipedia of shows released in a given year I don't see a huge worry. There is a drop from the mid 00's but more than than the 90's or early 00's right? That itoo was a 'golden age' lthat some lament the passing of but they too had their subpar stuff to deal with. And if we're talking about experimental stuff, yes it's good to see something interesting and experimental, if it really is falling off dramatically I lament that too, but as it pertains to the Anime business in the U.S., a series like Windy Tales (for example) would be a hard sale any time. A critics love doesn't necessarily bode well for marketing potential.
The only reason I can argue merits of recent stuff at all is that due to recent circumstances that have to do with a bad back I've been freebasing anime like a hikimori for a few months now. I don't have years of experience with non-licensed stuff, just a few months of watching whatever I could get my hands on.
I'm barely interested in ginormous Shonen anyway (and don't know who Oda or Kubo or Kishimoto are), what you say is probably true.... although if they can't adapt the next huge shonen title yet because of the placeholding old stuff, isn't that a good thing? The problem with the stories is that there isn't enough to adapt in the first place. Hold off the adaptation,avoid the filler.
Sorry, dealing with Wiki lists there and their inclusion in '08 was probably becasue of a movie or sequel, if an OVA or new continuation shows up apparently the Wiki lists just links to the original article. I may be behind on some of the quality stuff but I'm sure you could find other quality shows to compare to FMA, DtB, and Death Note in some ways.
Spice and Wolf, Shangri-la, I hear Canaan was a pretty good too. Maybe not all would agree the quality is up to par with older stuff but the intention of producing a unique show with action is there.
Well, you can at least compare Clannad and Toradora to Fruits Basket, which is what I was doing. otaku-centric in intention or not, they rise above pale.
I have little problem with your business argument, but I guess I have a slight problem with a moe blame game. A moe or otaku centered show CAN be good and I personally really like a good moe show and fan service doesn't have to ruin a show.
You have good shows, you have bad shows, and there will always be a trend that gets beaten into the dirt.
It's not as if the only obstacle to K-on! being licensed is it's Moe factor either.
-It's also a music anime- a hard sell. Did BECK:MCS perform well? Would FUNi buy Nerima Diakon Brothers today (although they did pick it up from ADV, which slightly surprises me).
-It's all girls, and not girls vying for a guy. This seems to be something companies are avoiding recently. It might be the problem with Michiko to Hatchin too. Isn't it also true that one of the few big series that Funi has not rescued from ADV is R.O.D. the TV? ...I admit that's just speculation but I wonder if has any merit.... then again how did Bamboo Blade get licensed? The closest thing to a moe girl in that show will beat you with stick and while there is the occasional breast shot it had an episode in which girls go into a bath house and doesn't show it!... but I digress.