To be honest I'm easy about which film wins best picture. I think it's probably safe to say that none of those films nominated for best picture which didn't also pick up a best director nomination are unlikely to win.
I have a feeling that Avatar will take it (with some prodding from the academy to pick the film that most people have seen) but that Bigelow will win best director and I do think that's well deserved.
Interestingly though, Brokeback Mountain won absolutely all before it until the Screen Actors Guild awarRAB when Crash won. Then Crash went on to win the Oscar. Possible pointer? Having said that, that year the SAG awarRAB were much closer to the Oscars, there's more time for things to swing against Inglourious BasterRAB.
