President Obama, already ahead in Pennsylvania, received a small bump from the Democratic National Convention and now leads Mitt Romney in the state by 11 points, according to the Inquirer Pennsylvania Poll.
But with eight weeks left before the Nov. 6 election, with debates yet to be held, and with foreign affairs suddenly atop the national agenda, it's early to concede the state to Obama, a bipartisan team of Inquirer pollsters said.
"I'm not 100 percent prepared to say Pennsylvania is not in play," said Adam Geller, of National Research Inc., a Republican firm.
Jeffrey Plaut, of Global Strategy Group, Geller's Democratic partner in the Inquirer poll, put it this way: "Is Pennsylvania done? Put a fork in it? I would say not yet."
The Romney camp clearly has signaled doubts about Pennsylvania by slashing TV ads and candidate appearances. Obama, too, has cut back, and the state lags behind Ohio, Florida, and other swing states as targets for the most intensive campaigning.
Here's why:
The Inquirer survey of 600 likely voters, conducted Sept. 9-12, found that 50 percent would vote for Obama if the election were held today, and 39 percent would vote for Romney.
Obama's lead was up from the 9 points found in the first Inquirer poll, Aug. 21-23, in which he led, 51-42. Poll results included voters who were leaning toward a candidate. Both surveys had an error margin of plus or minus 4 percentage points.
The Obama edge stands where it was when the 2008 campaign ended. Obama beat John McCain, the GOP nominee that year, by 101/2 points.
A companion Inquirer New Jersey Poll, also taken Sept. 9-12, showed Obama ahead by 14 points, 51-37.
The president's current standing is largely built on his overwhelming backing in the Philadelphia television market, home to more than 40 percent of the state's voters. That offsets support for Romney in the more conservative Pittsburgh market and some other areas.
Statewide, Obama was ahead among all age groups, among both men and women, among those with college education and those without.
He was marginally ahead among white voters, 46-43, and overwhelmingly ahead among black voters, 93-3.
Poll respondent William Eberle, a Romney backer, wondered in a follow-up interview if the results might be skewed by what he sees as the reluctance of some white voters to "go on record saying something critical about the first black president."
Eberle, of Lansdowne, a retired economics and accounting professor at Community College of Philadelphia, referred to the Wilder Effect. In 1989, Virginia Lt. Gov. L. Douglas Wilder, an African American, held a big lead over a white opponent in polls for governor. On Election Day, he squeaked by. Analysts attributed the dropoff to a fear by white poll respondents of being seen as racist.
The Inquirer's pollsters, however, said they did not see a Wilder Effect here. There was no evidence of it in the 2008 election, they said. And, as Plaut noted, Obama is a fair target after four years in office for anybody who wants to carp.
"Americans have been very willing to express it when they like or don't like the president," Plaut said.
The poll found 56 percent of voters held a favorable view of Obama and 40 percent did not. He appeared to get a boost from the Democratic convention, while Romney gained little from his convention.
Among people who changed their mind after watching the GOP convention on TV, more veered away from Romney than turned toward him, the poll found.
Slightly more Pennsylvania voters dislike Romney (48 percent) than like him (46 percent). That's a bit better for him than in the first Inquirer poll.
For black voters, ethnic pride continues to be a powerful factor.
But Anina Walker, a hotel housekeeper from Philadelphia's Feltonville section, said her feelings for Obama were less important than her sense that he will do more for public schools, save Medicare, and promote the health interests of Americans.
"A president is a president," Walker said. "It's time to keep him in office, to do what he's doing."
Half of poll respondents identified the economy and jobs as the No. 1 issue. Among other issues, Obama's health-care legislation stood out. So, to a lesser extent, did the deficit and taxes.
The Inquirer poll, for the first time, asked voters for their views on the candidates' religion.
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But with eight weeks left before the Nov. 6 election, with debates yet to be held, and with foreign affairs suddenly atop the national agenda, it's early to concede the state to Obama, a bipartisan team of Inquirer pollsters said.
"I'm not 100 percent prepared to say Pennsylvania is not in play," said Adam Geller, of National Research Inc., a Republican firm.
Jeffrey Plaut, of Global Strategy Group, Geller's Democratic partner in the Inquirer poll, put it this way: "Is Pennsylvania done? Put a fork in it? I would say not yet."
The Romney camp clearly has signaled doubts about Pennsylvania by slashing TV ads and candidate appearances. Obama, too, has cut back, and the state lags behind Ohio, Florida, and other swing states as targets for the most intensive campaigning.
Here's why:
The Inquirer survey of 600 likely voters, conducted Sept. 9-12, found that 50 percent would vote for Obama if the election were held today, and 39 percent would vote for Romney.
Obama's lead was up from the 9 points found in the first Inquirer poll, Aug. 21-23, in which he led, 51-42. Poll results included voters who were leaning toward a candidate. Both surveys had an error margin of plus or minus 4 percentage points.
The Obama edge stands where it was when the 2008 campaign ended. Obama beat John McCain, the GOP nominee that year, by 101/2 points.
A companion Inquirer New Jersey Poll, also taken Sept. 9-12, showed Obama ahead by 14 points, 51-37.
The president's current standing is largely built on his overwhelming backing in the Philadelphia television market, home to more than 40 percent of the state's voters. That offsets support for Romney in the more conservative Pittsburgh market and some other areas.
Statewide, Obama was ahead among all age groups, among both men and women, among those with college education and those without.
He was marginally ahead among white voters, 46-43, and overwhelmingly ahead among black voters, 93-3.
Poll respondent William Eberle, a Romney backer, wondered in a follow-up interview if the results might be skewed by what he sees as the reluctance of some white voters to "go on record saying something critical about the first black president."
Eberle, of Lansdowne, a retired economics and accounting professor at Community College of Philadelphia, referred to the Wilder Effect. In 1989, Virginia Lt. Gov. L. Douglas Wilder, an African American, held a big lead over a white opponent in polls for governor. On Election Day, he squeaked by. Analysts attributed the dropoff to a fear by white poll respondents of being seen as racist.
The Inquirer's pollsters, however, said they did not see a Wilder Effect here. There was no evidence of it in the 2008 election, they said. And, as Plaut noted, Obama is a fair target after four years in office for anybody who wants to carp.
"Americans have been very willing to express it when they like or don't like the president," Plaut said.
The poll found 56 percent of voters held a favorable view of Obama and 40 percent did not. He appeared to get a boost from the Democratic convention, while Romney gained little from his convention.
Among people who changed their mind after watching the GOP convention on TV, more veered away from Romney than turned toward him, the poll found.
Slightly more Pennsylvania voters dislike Romney (48 percent) than like him (46 percent). That's a bit better for him than in the first Inquirer poll.
For black voters, ethnic pride continues to be a powerful factor.
But Anina Walker, a hotel housekeeper from Philadelphia's Feltonville section, said her feelings for Obama were less important than her sense that he will do more for public schools, save Medicare, and promote the health interests of Americans.
"A president is a president," Walker said. "It's time to keep him in office, to do what he's doing."
Half of poll respondents identified the economy and jobs as the No. 1 issue. Among other issues, Obama's health-care legislation stood out. So, to a lesser extent, did the deficit and taxes.
The Inquirer poll, for the first time, asked voters for their views on the candidates' religion.
Page: 1 of 3 View All
1 | 2 | 3 Next»