[h=3]By JEREMY PAGE[/h] 
The WSJ's Jeremy Page explains why friends of murdered British businessman Neil Heywood believe Gu Kailai, wife of the ousted Chinese politician Bo Xilai, is lying about the circumstances under which he died.
BEIJING—Chinese leaders will take a key step toward declaring the fate of Bo Xilai, the ousted Communist Party official, with the expected announcement Monday of a verdict and sentence in the trial of his wife, Gu Kailai, for the alleged murder of a British businessman.
The Intermediate People's Court in the eastern city of Hefei is due to announce its judgment on Ms. Gu and Zhang Xiaojun, a family aide who stood trial with her earlier this month, at 9 a.m. local time Monday (9 p.m. Eastern Time Sunday), according to local officials.
The court is widely expected to find them both guilty of murdering Neil Heywood in November in the southwestern city of Chongqing, but to spare them the death penalty, according to Communist Party insiders, political analysts and diplomats following the case.
Reuters A combination of two photographs shows the late British business consultant Neil Heywood and his accused murderer, Gu Kailai, wife of the ousted Chinese politician Bo Xilai
Public attention in China will then turn to the even more politically sensitive question of how the party deals with Mr. Bo, who until he was removed as party chief of Chongqing earlier this year was seen as a candidate for promotion in a once-a-decade leadership transition this fall.
Party leaders are understood to be keen to announce a decision on that question ahead of the leadership change, but have had difficulty reaching a consensus, in part because of residual party support for Mr. Bo, according to analysts and party insiders.
[h=3]The Chongqing Drama[/h] See key dates in the mysterious death of Neil Heywood in the Chinese city of Chongqing and the drama surrounding Bo Xilai.
[h=3]Players in China's Leadership Purge[/h] Read more about the players in the case.
Those people say the decision is also complicated by party leaders' desire to avoid drawing more public attention to some of the issues raised by the Bo scandal, notably the private wealth of many top leaders' families.
Chinese authorities announced in April that Mr. Bo had been sacked from his party posts and placed under investigation for unspecified "serious disciplinary violations," but they have yet to declare whether he too will face criminal charges. Nor have they said how they plan to deal with Wang Lijun, the former Chongqing police chief who in February sought refuge in a U.S. consulate in China, where he told diplomats he had evidence that Ms. Gu was involved in the death of Mr. Heywood.
The next step towards concluding the scandal is widely expected to be the trial of Mr. Wang, most likely on treason charges related to what authorities have called his "unauthorized" consulate visit. Mr. Wang, who was detained by Chinese security officers and placed under investigation after leaving the consulate, stepped down in June as a member of the national parliament—a resignation that stripped him of immunity from prosecution.
Reuters Gu Kailai and Zhang Xiaojun being escorted into the courtroom for their Aug.9 trial.
Mr. Bo, however, is still a member both of the national parliament and of the party—official exclusion from which is usually a necessary precursor to criminal charges, according to experts on Chinese politics and law.
Those experts also noted that Mr. Bo's name had not been mentioned at his wife's trial or the trial in Hefei the next day of four former Chongqing police officers charged with covering up Mr. Heywood's murder—which they did not dispute. The Intermediate People's Court in Hefei is due to announce verdicts and sentences in that second trial at 10 a.m. local time on Monday, according to local officials.
[h=3]'Who are the others involved?'[/h] What Chinese skeptics say about Gu Kailai's murder trial
Some observers said the omission of Mr. Bo's name from the two trials suggests he will not be accused of direct involvement either in Mr. Heywood's alleged murder, or the subsequent alleged cover-up. But others said it suggests the party leadership has yet to make a decision on Mr. Bo and is simply allowing itself leeway to define his wrongdoing later on.
Most analysts, however, agree that the party leadership will make a political decision in time for a full meeting—known as a plenum—of the roughly 300-strong Central Committee, which is expected shortly before the leadership transition.
Mr. Bo is thought to be in the hands of the Central Commission for Discipline Inspection, a party organization that investigates members' conduct and decides whether they should be dealt with internally or also face criminal charges. It typically interrogates those in its grasp at a secret location, and forms a special group comprising police, prosecutors, state security officers and any other relevant officials to gather evidence.
REUTERS/Stringer Ms. Gu with her husband, Bo Xilai, in 2007
It is a highly politicized process, with individual party leaders able to use personal relations or formal powers over the agencies involved to influence decisions on which evidence is selected, and how it is interpreted.
The Commission itself is headed by He Guoqiang, one of nine members of the Politburo Standing Committee, China's top decision-making body. Himself a former party chief of Chongqing, like Mr. Bo, he's thought by many party insiders, political analysts and diplomats to favor harsher treatment. But the police, prosecutors, courts and intelligence services are overseen by fellow Standing Committee member Zhou Yongkang, said by some Party insiders to have a more sympathetic view of Mr. Bo.
Once the investigation group has completed its work, the Commission compiles the evidence and submits a report to the Party leadership advising whether to pursue criminal charges. If the leadership decides to refer the case to the courts, the Commission also makes recommendations on the verdict and sentence, but may withhold actual evidence and instead summarize its findings.
The process can be slow, judging by the two last Politburo members to be sacked. In the 1990s, it was three years between the ouster of Beijing's mayor, Chen Xitong, and his trial. Shanghai's Chen Liangyu was brought into court 18 months after his downfall as the city's party secretary.
If Mr. Bo is dealt with internally by the party, a final decision on his fate could be announced by the autumn, but if he is turned over to the courts, many observers do not expect a trial until next year at the earliest.
"In the cases of the two Chens, each man was subsequently turned over for criminal prosecution, resulting in lengthy prison terms," wrote Alice Miller, a research fellow and expert on Chinese politics at the Hoover Institution, in a paper this month on the Bo affair. "A comparable fate likely awaits Bo Xilai."
She continued: "Bo's removal in that respect therefore does not indicate a departure from the 'rules of the game' as played in the last two decades. The reform era initiated by Deng Xiaoping has seen the emergence of a more legalistic exit mechanism for removing high party leaders."
—James T. Areddy in Shanghai contributed to this article. Write to Jeremy Page at [email protected]
The WSJ's Jeremy Page explains why friends of murdered British businessman Neil Heywood believe Gu Kailai, wife of the ousted Chinese politician Bo Xilai, is lying about the circumstances under which he died.
BEIJING—Chinese leaders will take a key step toward declaring the fate of Bo Xilai, the ousted Communist Party official, with the expected announcement Monday of a verdict and sentence in the trial of his wife, Gu Kailai, for the alleged murder of a British businessman.
The Intermediate People's Court in the eastern city of Hefei is due to announce its judgment on Ms. Gu and Zhang Xiaojun, a family aide who stood trial with her earlier this month, at 9 a.m. local time Monday (9 p.m. Eastern Time Sunday), according to local officials.
The court is widely expected to find them both guilty of murdering Neil Heywood in November in the southwestern city of Chongqing, but to spare them the death penalty, according to Communist Party insiders, political analysts and diplomats following the case.
Reuters A combination of two photographs shows the late British business consultant Neil Heywood and his accused murderer, Gu Kailai, wife of the ousted Chinese politician Bo Xilai
Public attention in China will then turn to the even more politically sensitive question of how the party deals with Mr. Bo, who until he was removed as party chief of Chongqing earlier this year was seen as a candidate for promotion in a once-a-decade leadership transition this fall.
Party leaders are understood to be keen to announce a decision on that question ahead of the leadership change, but have had difficulty reaching a consensus, in part because of residual party support for Mr. Bo, according to analysts and party insiders.
[h=3]The Chongqing Drama[/h] See key dates in the mysterious death of Neil Heywood in the Chinese city of Chongqing and the drama surrounding Bo Xilai.
[h=3]Players in China's Leadership Purge[/h] Read more about the players in the case.
Those people say the decision is also complicated by party leaders' desire to avoid drawing more public attention to some of the issues raised by the Bo scandal, notably the private wealth of many top leaders' families.
Chinese authorities announced in April that Mr. Bo had been sacked from his party posts and placed under investigation for unspecified "serious disciplinary violations," but they have yet to declare whether he too will face criminal charges. Nor have they said how they plan to deal with Wang Lijun, the former Chongqing police chief who in February sought refuge in a U.S. consulate in China, where he told diplomats he had evidence that Ms. Gu was involved in the death of Mr. Heywood.
The next step towards concluding the scandal is widely expected to be the trial of Mr. Wang, most likely on treason charges related to what authorities have called his "unauthorized" consulate visit. Mr. Wang, who was detained by Chinese security officers and placed under investigation after leaving the consulate, stepped down in June as a member of the national parliament—a resignation that stripped him of immunity from prosecution.
Reuters Gu Kailai and Zhang Xiaojun being escorted into the courtroom for their Aug.9 trial.
Mr. Bo, however, is still a member both of the national parliament and of the party—official exclusion from which is usually a necessary precursor to criminal charges, according to experts on Chinese politics and law.
Those experts also noted that Mr. Bo's name had not been mentioned at his wife's trial or the trial in Hefei the next day of four former Chongqing police officers charged with covering up Mr. Heywood's murder—which they did not dispute. The Intermediate People's Court in Hefei is due to announce verdicts and sentences in that second trial at 10 a.m. local time on Monday, according to local officials.
[h=3]'Who are the others involved?'[/h] What Chinese skeptics say about Gu Kailai's murder trial
- It obfuscated the role of senior officials, including Bo Xilai, despite evidence of involvement of officials in Chongqing, where Mr. Bo was party chief.
- It shed no light on the role of Wang Lijun, the former Chongqing police chief, who told U.S. diplomats he had evidence Ms. Gu was involved in the death of a British businessman.
- It discussed a dispute over a failed property deal but avoided details about any money trails that could implicate Mr. Bo or other officials.
- It said Mr. Heywood and Ms. Gu first met in 2005, while his friends say it was in the 1990s
Some observers said the omission of Mr. Bo's name from the two trials suggests he will not be accused of direct involvement either in Mr. Heywood's alleged murder, or the subsequent alleged cover-up. But others said it suggests the party leadership has yet to make a decision on Mr. Bo and is simply allowing itself leeway to define his wrongdoing later on.
Most analysts, however, agree that the party leadership will make a political decision in time for a full meeting—known as a plenum—of the roughly 300-strong Central Committee, which is expected shortly before the leadership transition.
Mr. Bo is thought to be in the hands of the Central Commission for Discipline Inspection, a party organization that investigates members' conduct and decides whether they should be dealt with internally or also face criminal charges. It typically interrogates those in its grasp at a secret location, and forms a special group comprising police, prosecutors, state security officers and any other relevant officials to gather evidence.
REUTERS/Stringer Ms. Gu with her husband, Bo Xilai, in 2007
It is a highly politicized process, with individual party leaders able to use personal relations or formal powers over the agencies involved to influence decisions on which evidence is selected, and how it is interpreted.
The Commission itself is headed by He Guoqiang, one of nine members of the Politburo Standing Committee, China's top decision-making body. Himself a former party chief of Chongqing, like Mr. Bo, he's thought by many party insiders, political analysts and diplomats to favor harsher treatment. But the police, prosecutors, courts and intelligence services are overseen by fellow Standing Committee member Zhou Yongkang, said by some Party insiders to have a more sympathetic view of Mr. Bo.
Once the investigation group has completed its work, the Commission compiles the evidence and submits a report to the Party leadership advising whether to pursue criminal charges. If the leadership decides to refer the case to the courts, the Commission also makes recommendations on the verdict and sentence, but may withhold actual evidence and instead summarize its findings.
The process can be slow, judging by the two last Politburo members to be sacked. In the 1990s, it was three years between the ouster of Beijing's mayor, Chen Xitong, and his trial. Shanghai's Chen Liangyu was brought into court 18 months after his downfall as the city's party secretary.
If Mr. Bo is dealt with internally by the party, a final decision on his fate could be announced by the autumn, but if he is turned over to the courts, many observers do not expect a trial until next year at the earliest.
"In the cases of the two Chens, each man was subsequently turned over for criminal prosecution, resulting in lengthy prison terms," wrote Alice Miller, a research fellow and expert on Chinese politics at the Hoover Institution, in a paper this month on the Bo affair. "A comparable fate likely awaits Bo Xilai."
She continued: "Bo's removal in that respect therefore does not indicate a departure from the 'rules of the game' as played in the last two decades. The reform era initiated by Deng Xiaoping has seen the emergence of a more legalistic exit mechanism for removing high party leaders."
—James T. Areddy in Shanghai contributed to this article. Write to Jeremy Page at [email protected]