J
John Terry
Guest
I suspect that, whatever you think of Dana's posts or my posts, nothing's going to change the reality that, if we get another round of warming in the next 3-5 years, nearly everyone who hasn't already jumped on the global warming bandwagon will do so.
Likewise, I suspect that, if we don't get another round of warming but temperatures hover around the 2006-2008 level, people will slowly start to jump off the global warming bandwagon - no matter what explanations are given by the AGW crowd (e.g., warming causes cooling, it's really 'climate change,' global dimming offsets global warming, or 'it's still warming, just not where you or anyone you know lives'). I think that to the extent that the believers don't huddle up and agree on one of these contradictory explanations, the contradictions will cause more thinking people to jump off the global warming bandwagon.
I also suspect that if the recent short-term trend continues - i.e., 2006 was cooler than 2005, 2007 was cooler than 2006, and 2008 was cooler than 2007, so a continuation would be 2009 cooler than 2008, 2010 cooler than 2009 - if that happens, then there will be a huge shift in opinion, as people in droves jump off the global warming bandwagon and claim, like they claimed in the 1980s never to have liked disco, to never have believed in global warming.
What do you think - do these debates matter? Will people pretty much make up their minds based on what happens in the next few years?
Do you think that's why the AGW believers are in such a hurry to get their agenda passed - because they know that the odds are 50/50 that it might just cool down?
Likewise, I suspect that, if we don't get another round of warming but temperatures hover around the 2006-2008 level, people will slowly start to jump off the global warming bandwagon - no matter what explanations are given by the AGW crowd (e.g., warming causes cooling, it's really 'climate change,' global dimming offsets global warming, or 'it's still warming, just not where you or anyone you know lives'). I think that to the extent that the believers don't huddle up and agree on one of these contradictory explanations, the contradictions will cause more thinking people to jump off the global warming bandwagon.
I also suspect that if the recent short-term trend continues - i.e., 2006 was cooler than 2005, 2007 was cooler than 2006, and 2008 was cooler than 2007, so a continuation would be 2009 cooler than 2008, 2010 cooler than 2009 - if that happens, then there will be a huge shift in opinion, as people in droves jump off the global warming bandwagon and claim, like they claimed in the 1980s never to have liked disco, to never have believed in global warming.
What do you think - do these debates matter? Will people pretty much make up their minds based on what happens in the next few years?
Do you think that's why the AGW believers are in such a hurry to get their agenda passed - because they know that the odds are 50/50 that it might just cool down?