Where can I find the probability of a congress member winning the upcoming election?

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Josh

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I live in Florida, and I am rooting for Tim Mahoney, who is incumbent for Florida's 16th Congressional District. He (Mahoney) is running against Tom Rooney. Over the past few days, Tim Mahoney has been involved in a sex scandal involving an extra marital affair. I think that this will hurt him in the polls. Is there a website where I can see the possibility of him winning or some other source that may help determine this? Thanks for the help.

PS - If you can provide a good answer, I will award you the best answer for extra points.
 
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