As you can see from the map above Isaac is forecast to move just to the southwest of the Florida mainland Florida and perhaps even over Key West later today. You can already see bands of heavy rain moving towards the Keys. These bands will continue all day an well into the evening as winds also increase.
Even though the immediate track of Isaac is quite certain beyond Tuesday major wobbles left or right of the track are still likely. The bigger question is what part of the Gulf Coast does Isaac ultimately strike late Tuesday night and early Wednesday. Anyone from New Orleans to Panama City Florida needs to be very aware of this storm until it makes landfall Tuesday night or Wednesday.What is the cone of uncertainty?
The new buzz phrase seems to be the "cone of uncertainty". If you look at the projected track of the storm or the projected wind field you will notice these predictions start at a point and then widen into a "cone" shape over time. The further out in time a prediction is made, the greater the chance for error. The cone allows meteorologists wiggle room in their predictions and also gives the public a chance to know that even if the exact track is not over their area, there is still some risk. In the image below the darker colors represent those places that are most likely to see tropical storm force winds, the other colors are areas that those winds are possible, but less likely. Everyone in the cone should be listening to the latest forecast.
How big will Isaac become?
As I mentioned, Isaac is poorly organized and still a tropical storm. As the storm passes by Cuba it will then head into an area of very warm water and somewhat favorable conditions for strengthening. Meteorologists are confident the storm will grow stronger later this weekend and early next week but uncertainty remains as to how strong the storm will become. Sometimes, if conditions are favorable, storms can go from a Category 1 to a Category 3 in less than a day. Once the storm begins to get stronger Sunday and Monday we will have to watch it hour by hour as it approaches the Gulf Coast.
Republican Convention and the storm
While the storm itself will have limited impact on Tampa and the RNC, the bigger issue I am thinking about is what happens Tuesday and Wednesday. I can forsee a scenario where the storm intensifies to a major hurricane, category 3 or higher and slams into the Gulf Coast. Imagine the visuals of homes destroyed and peoples lives ruined while the Republicans are having their convention. This could end up being a no-win public relations nightmare for the Republicans even thought the storm itself won't hit that part of Florida. Stay tuned.
Why do hurricanes form?
You might wonder why these storms form in the first place. I tell my students that hurricanes are nature's way of moving excess heat from the tropics to the northern latitudes. From about June through October, the oceans in the tropics are very warm. The water temperatures must be in the 80s not only at the surface but several feet below as well. This temperature structure to the sea only happens in the warm months. As the sun evaporates the ocean water that warm moist air rises and can, if conditions are favorable, create thunderstorms. In some cases, these clusters of thunderstorms will group together and begin to rotate. The rotation can be attributed to something called the Coriolis force. The Coriolis is strongest at the poles and zero at the equator. This is why hurricanes don't happen on or within several hundred miles of the equator. (no Coriolis=no spin) Winds inside the thunderstorms stir up more ocean spray which then evaporates and continues to feed the storms. If the winds reach 39 mph, the storm is called a "tropical storm." And when the wind speeds reach 74 mph, the storm is officially a "tropical cyclone," or hurricane.
Once the storm becomes a hurricane they are then categorized into 5 different levels of strength. Category 5 is the strongest and the last time one of those actually hit the United States was in 1992 when hurricane Andrew came ashore south of Miami.Gardening tip this week
This is a great time of year to plant. I actually feel that for many plants fall is a better time to plant than it is in the spring. Since the ground stays warm well into October, roots have a good chance to become established. When you plant in the spring, much of the energy of the plant goes into making new leaves, not new roots.
If you have a tough spot that you can't seem to grow anything, check out this video and learn about some of the plants that actually thrive in hard to grow conditions.
I'd love to hear your thoughts on this blog or any others. Please follow me on Twitter at @growingwisdom and check out my latest videos at GrowingWisdom.com
