Tight races for president, Senate in swing Nevada - San Francisco Chronicle

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RENO, Nev. (AP) — With nearly six out of 10 active registered voters in battleground Nevada already having cast their ballots, most of the rest will head to the polls Tuesday with the potential to again help swing a close presidential race and determine an even closer U.S. Senate contest.
Nevadans also will decide four congressional races against the backdrop of an economic climate that has been one of the worst in the nation but has shown some recent signs of recovery. In addition, they'll vote on a number of legislative races that Republicans hope will cut into Democrats' control of the General Assembly and possibly reverse their 11-10 advantage in the state Senate.
President Barack Obama won by a surprising 12 percentage points over Republican John McCain in 2008. He carried Democrat-dominated Clark County and Las Vegas by nearly 20 percentage points and ran unexpectedly strong in Reno's GOP-leaning Washoe County, where he became the first Democrat to win since Lyndon Johnson in 1964.
Early voting trends suggested Obama would not fare nearly as well as Republican challenger Mitt Romney this time around, with most polls showing Obama barely ahead or within the margin of error.
More than 700,000 Nevadans cast ballots during early voting that ended Friday, either at the polls or through the mail. That a total of 56 percent of all 1.2 million active registered voters, up from 54 percent in 2008, when nearly 650,000 Nevadans voted early.
Almost 50,000 more Democrats than Republicans voted early this year — 307,877 Democrats (44 percent of the total) and 259,913 Republicans (37 percent). The other one-fifth or so of the early vote came from members of other parties or independents.
Some analysts had anticipated a smaller turnout in this election based on assumptions that Obama is not as popular as when he helped attract support from a number of first-time voters and independents.
But Secretary of State Ross Miller predicted overall turnout would be very similar to the 80 percent turnout four years ago. That year, one-third of voters turned out to cast their ballot on Election Day. If the same holds true this time, overall turnout would total about 930,000, or about 73 percent.
Nevada has picked 24 out of 25 presidential victors the past 100 years — more than any other state. The lone exception is Jimmy Carter's victory over Gerald Ford in 1976.
U.S. Sen. Dean Heller, who was appointed to fill an unexpired term after Sen. John Ensign's sex scandal, is one of the few incumbent Republicans that Democrats think they have a chance to unseat in the Senate. The latest polls showed Heller, the former northern Nevada congressman from the state's most conservative rural district, either in a dead heat or inching slightly ahead of U.S. Rep. Shelley Berkley, a seven-term Democrat from Las Vegas.
Republican Rep. Mark Amodei, who was appointed to Heller's seat in the sweeping 2nd District, was expected to have little trouble dispatching of a relative unknown and underfunded Democratic challenger, Sam Koepnick.
In the bid to replace Berkley in the 1st District, former Democratic Rep. Dina Titus was the overwhelming favorite over Republican Chris Edwards.
Titus lost four years ago across town in the 3rd District to Republican Joe Heck, who was trying to fend off a challenge form former Democratic state Assembly Speaker John Oceguera. More Democrats voted early there than Republicans (73,446 to 68,428), but polls showed Heck with a lead, albeit shrinking.
It was expected to be a close election in the newly created 4th District, which combines parts of Clark County with parts of seven rural counties. That race features former state Senate Majority Leader Steven Horsford and Republican Danny Tarkanian, son of former UNLV basketball coach Jerry Tarkanian.

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