BEIRUT — The Syrian regime appears to have absorbed the shock it suffered in the heaviest blow against it yet in Syria’s 17-month-old upheaval — a bombing that killed four top aides.
The blast raised opponents’ hopes President Bashar Assad could fall soon. Instead he is back on the offensive and has reshuffled his inner circle of loyalists to brace for a long battle in what has become an outright civil war.
Although the president is embattled, he remains surrounded by loyal generals, many who are inextricably tied to the regime and have played a key role in the brutal crackdown against the opposition.
He has already made some progress on the ground. A counter-offensive by the government is gaining momentum and troops have so far been able to recapture neighborhoods in the capital Damascus that rebels overran earlier this month. The government also launched an offensive in the northern city of Aleppo, Syria’s largest, where rebels have taken over several areas.
Regime forces have stepped up the use of force. Helicopter gunships have been used more than ever before in the battles with rebels in Damascus and Aleppo. Also this week, warplanes flew over Aleppo, although it was not possible to confirm claims by activists that the fighter jets actually fired on rebels — which would be a first since the uprising against Assad began in March 2011.
A Syrian who fled to Lebanon this week said the regime forces’ attacks have intensified.
“Whenever they suspect there is an area where there are (rebel) gunmen, they destroy it,” said the man who identified himself as Fawaz and said he had come from the southern province of Daraa, where the uprising began.
Still, the past weeks have shown that the rebels — a mix of army defectors and regime opponents who have taken up arms — are getting more experienced and sophisticated. That points to Syria’s conflict, which anti-regime activists say has already left 19,000 dead, getting even bloodier as both sides try to finish the other by force.
“Syria will get much worse before it gets any better. Assad might fall but he will do his darndest to leave behind a burned down country,” said Bilal Saab, a Syria expert at the Monterey Institute of International Studies. “There will be tactical advances and retreats by both, but time and momentum seems to be on the rebels’ side.”
Assad has suffered a series of setbacks over the past weeks. On July 18, rebels detonated a bomb inside a high-level crisis meeting in Damascus that killed the defense minister, the head of the National Security Bureau, Assad’s brother-in-law and a former defense minister — some of Assad’s most trusted officers.
At the same time, the rebel Free Syrian Army was waging its most brazen offensive yet in Damascus, taking over several neighborhoods and sparking the heaviest and most sustained battles in the capital. They also rose up in Aleppo, which throughout the conflict has been a pillar of support for Assad’s regime and has seen little opposition activity. The rebels took at least four border points with Turkey and Iraq.
The blast raised opponents’ hopes President Bashar Assad could fall soon. Instead he is back on the offensive and has reshuffled his inner circle of loyalists to brace for a long battle in what has become an outright civil war.
Although the president is embattled, he remains surrounded by loyal generals, many who are inextricably tied to the regime and have played a key role in the brutal crackdown against the opposition.
He has already made some progress on the ground. A counter-offensive by the government is gaining momentum and troops have so far been able to recapture neighborhoods in the capital Damascus that rebels overran earlier this month. The government also launched an offensive in the northern city of Aleppo, Syria’s largest, where rebels have taken over several areas.
Regime forces have stepped up the use of force. Helicopter gunships have been used more than ever before in the battles with rebels in Damascus and Aleppo. Also this week, warplanes flew over Aleppo, although it was not possible to confirm claims by activists that the fighter jets actually fired on rebels — which would be a first since the uprising against Assad began in March 2011.
A Syrian who fled to Lebanon this week said the regime forces’ attacks have intensified.
“Whenever they suspect there is an area where there are (rebel) gunmen, they destroy it,” said the man who identified himself as Fawaz and said he had come from the southern province of Daraa, where the uprising began.
Still, the past weeks have shown that the rebels — a mix of army defectors and regime opponents who have taken up arms — are getting more experienced and sophisticated. That points to Syria’s conflict, which anti-regime activists say has already left 19,000 dead, getting even bloodier as both sides try to finish the other by force.
“Syria will get much worse before it gets any better. Assad might fall but he will do his darndest to leave behind a burned down country,” said Bilal Saab, a Syria expert at the Monterey Institute of International Studies. “There will be tactical advances and retreats by both, but time and momentum seems to be on the rebels’ side.”
Assad has suffered a series of setbacks over the past weeks. On July 18, rebels detonated a bomb inside a high-level crisis meeting in Damascus that killed the defense minister, the head of the National Security Bureau, Assad’s brother-in-law and a former defense minister — some of Assad’s most trusted officers.
At the same time, the rebel Free Syrian Army was waging its most brazen offensive yet in Damascus, taking over several neighborhoods and sparking the heaviest and most sustained battles in the capital. They also rose up in Aleppo, which throughout the conflict has been a pillar of support for Assad’s regime and has seen little opposition activity. The rebels took at least four border points with Turkey and Iraq.