[h=3]By JONATHAN HOUSE and MATT MOFFETT[/h]BARCELONA—Residents of Spain's wealthy Catalonia region voted Sunday in parliamentary elections that will gauge the strength of an independence push that threatens to further destabilize one of Europe's largest ailing economies.
Agence France-Presse/Getty ImagesA man casts his ballot for regional elections in Barcelona on Sunday.
Catalan leader Artur Mas, critical of a revenue-sharing system that he says siphons too much of Catalonia's resources, is hoping that a strong showing Sunday will give him a mandate to call a referendum on independence.
Though recent polls have indicated Mr. Mas could fail to obtain a majority in the 135-seat regional parliament, he is likely to obtain the most votes by a wide margin and add to the 62 seats he already has. That would ensure he keeps his job as regional president. He would be able to count on the support of other pro-independence parties to push ahead with the referendum, though his legitimacy to do so would be somewhat diminished, some analysts say.
Nonetheless, the elections are likely to set the stage for a prolonged conflict between Catalonia, Spain's top exporting region and highest taxpaying one, and the central government in Madrid. Spain's constitution doesn't contemplate the possibility of secession, and Spain's conservative Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy said he has no intention of backing a constitutional amendment to facilitate a breakup.
The conflict threatens to further damage investor confidence in Spain at a time when the country is struggling to overhaul its economy and to pay off the debts left by the collapse of a massive housing boom.
Both supporters and critics of the independence push are casting the elections as the most important for Catalonia in many years. "It's not just the election result that's at stake," said Alicia Sánchez-Camacho, head of Mr. Rajoy's Popular Party in Catalonia. "What's at stake is our future, our ability to get along with each other and our relations with the rest of Spain," Ms. Sánchez-Camacho said after voting at a polling station in a residential neighborhood here.
The election is being closely watched throughout Europe at a time when a growing number of countries are witnessing strains between wealthier regions and poorer ones. "Catalonia's claims are crucial for (Europe's) future," says Luca Zaia, president of the Veneto region in wealthier northern Italy where there is sympathy for Catalonia's grievances. "It is the Europe of people and of regions that is…asserting its role against a centralized, red-tape Europe." For his part, he laments the "dependency culture" that has taken root in many Italian regions, especially in the south.
A recent survey from the Catalonia government's Center of Opinion Studies found 57% of the respondents would vote for independence, though support fell to 44% if offered the choice greater autonomy for the region. Other surveys indicate the support for independence also drops if Catalonia were to lose its European Union membership, as EU officials warn would be likely.
Many people in Catalonia, a province known as "the factory of Spain," feel that the rest of the country has become an economic millstone. They're pushing for an independent Catalonia. WSJ's Matt Moffett reports from Barcelona.
"Our lives would be better if we could administer our own money and we could invest it in what's best for us," said Darío Olaortua, the 62-year-old owner of a local cultural foundation. Mr. Olaortua played down the risk of Catalonia losing its EU membership. "It's not in Europe's interest to lose one of its richest, strongest regions," he said.
Others disagree. Antonio Garcia, a mechanic, said he had no sympathy for the independentistas, as the independence activists are called. "They want to divide Spain, to break up families and turn neighbors against each other," said Mr. Garcia, who immigrated to Catalonia from the southern region of Andalusia.
Some analysts speculate Mr. Mas is capitalizing on surging pro-independence sentiment as a tactic to win a better revenue-sharing arrangement, and they think he will soften his rhetoric after the election. "This is however a risky game to play," said a recent study by UBS Investment Research. "Once you wake the independentist genie, it may prove hard to put it back in the lamp."
Pro-independence politicians say the skeptics of Mr. Mas's sincerity are the ones who are misunderstanding the breadth and conviction of the separatist movement that made headlines around the world with a massive demonstration on Catalonia's Sept. 11 national day. "A million and a half people don't take the streets for tactical reasons," says Josep Maria Vila d'Abadal, the mayor of the city of Vic, which is a hotbed of pro-independence activism. "They mobilized because they want to be independent."
For Catalans, who have their own language and culture, resentment that they are treated like second-class citizens by the rest of Spain has long simmered just below the surface. The Catalonian newspaper El Periodico recently published a letter to the editor from a perturbed reader complaining that pilots on a Barcelona-based regional airline weren't speaking Catalan. "The information from the commander and the cabin crew to travelers were exclusively in English and Spanish," wrote the author, Lluís Barba. He said the airline owed passengers "the basic respect" of addressing them in Catalan.
There has been a rise in anti-Catalan sentiment in other Spanish regions. A retired lieutenant colonel in the army said Catalonia would achieve independence only "over my dead body."
Analysts said this conflict could heighten investor concerns over the fragile state of Spain's finances. Catalonia is the biggest contributor to Spanish gross domestic product and, according to calculations by the regional government, pays about €15 billion ($19.46 billion) more into the national treasury than it gets back every year. That means Spain could take a large financial hit if Catalonia were to secede.
In addition, the conflict could reinforce doubts about Spain's ability to force budget discipline on its regions, which account for more than one third of spending and have been responsible for the bulk of the country's budget overruns in recent years. In a Friday research note, Barclays Bank PLC economists Fabio Fois and Philippe Gudin said a large majority for pro-independence parties in the Catalonia vote would undermine the central government's authority. "It will further complicate the ability of the Spanish government to rein in regional budget deficits, increasing the political cost of forcing compliance not only in Catalonia but elsewhere," they said.
Write to Jonathan House at [email protected] and Matt Moffett at [email protected]
Agence France-Presse/Getty ImagesA man casts his ballot for regional elections in Barcelona on Sunday.
Catalan leader Artur Mas, critical of a revenue-sharing system that he says siphons too much of Catalonia's resources, is hoping that a strong showing Sunday will give him a mandate to call a referendum on independence.
Though recent polls have indicated Mr. Mas could fail to obtain a majority in the 135-seat regional parliament, he is likely to obtain the most votes by a wide margin and add to the 62 seats he already has. That would ensure he keeps his job as regional president. He would be able to count on the support of other pro-independence parties to push ahead with the referendum, though his legitimacy to do so would be somewhat diminished, some analysts say.
Nonetheless, the elections are likely to set the stage for a prolonged conflict between Catalonia, Spain's top exporting region and highest taxpaying one, and the central government in Madrid. Spain's constitution doesn't contemplate the possibility of secession, and Spain's conservative Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy said he has no intention of backing a constitutional amendment to facilitate a breakup.
The conflict threatens to further damage investor confidence in Spain at a time when the country is struggling to overhaul its economy and to pay off the debts left by the collapse of a massive housing boom.
Both supporters and critics of the independence push are casting the elections as the most important for Catalonia in many years. "It's not just the election result that's at stake," said Alicia Sánchez-Camacho, head of Mr. Rajoy's Popular Party in Catalonia. "What's at stake is our future, our ability to get along with each other and our relations with the rest of Spain," Ms. Sánchez-Camacho said after voting at a polling station in a residential neighborhood here.
The election is being closely watched throughout Europe at a time when a growing number of countries are witnessing strains between wealthier regions and poorer ones. "Catalonia's claims are crucial for (Europe's) future," says Luca Zaia, president of the Veneto region in wealthier northern Italy where there is sympathy for Catalonia's grievances. "It is the Europe of people and of regions that is…asserting its role against a centralized, red-tape Europe." For his part, he laments the "dependency culture" that has taken root in many Italian regions, especially in the south.
A recent survey from the Catalonia government's Center of Opinion Studies found 57% of the respondents would vote for independence, though support fell to 44% if offered the choice greater autonomy for the region. Other surveys indicate the support for independence also drops if Catalonia were to lose its European Union membership, as EU officials warn would be likely.
Many people in Catalonia, a province known as "the factory of Spain," feel that the rest of the country has become an economic millstone. They're pushing for an independent Catalonia. WSJ's Matt Moffett reports from Barcelona.
"Our lives would be better if we could administer our own money and we could invest it in what's best for us," said Darío Olaortua, the 62-year-old owner of a local cultural foundation. Mr. Olaortua played down the risk of Catalonia losing its EU membership. "It's not in Europe's interest to lose one of its richest, strongest regions," he said.
Others disagree. Antonio Garcia, a mechanic, said he had no sympathy for the independentistas, as the independence activists are called. "They want to divide Spain, to break up families and turn neighbors against each other," said Mr. Garcia, who immigrated to Catalonia from the southern region of Andalusia.
Some analysts speculate Mr. Mas is capitalizing on surging pro-independence sentiment as a tactic to win a better revenue-sharing arrangement, and they think he will soften his rhetoric after the election. "This is however a risky game to play," said a recent study by UBS Investment Research. "Once you wake the independentist genie, it may prove hard to put it back in the lamp."
Pro-independence politicians say the skeptics of Mr. Mas's sincerity are the ones who are misunderstanding the breadth and conviction of the separatist movement that made headlines around the world with a massive demonstration on Catalonia's Sept. 11 national day. "A million and a half people don't take the streets for tactical reasons," says Josep Maria Vila d'Abadal, the mayor of the city of Vic, which is a hotbed of pro-independence activism. "They mobilized because they want to be independent."
For Catalans, who have their own language and culture, resentment that they are treated like second-class citizens by the rest of Spain has long simmered just below the surface. The Catalonian newspaper El Periodico recently published a letter to the editor from a perturbed reader complaining that pilots on a Barcelona-based regional airline weren't speaking Catalan. "The information from the commander and the cabin crew to travelers were exclusively in English and Spanish," wrote the author, Lluís Barba. He said the airline owed passengers "the basic respect" of addressing them in Catalan.
There has been a rise in anti-Catalan sentiment in other Spanish regions. A retired lieutenant colonel in the army said Catalonia would achieve independence only "over my dead body."
Analysts said this conflict could heighten investor concerns over the fragile state of Spain's finances. Catalonia is the biggest contributor to Spanish gross domestic product and, according to calculations by the regional government, pays about €15 billion ($19.46 billion) more into the national treasury than it gets back every year. That means Spain could take a large financial hit if Catalonia were to secede.
In addition, the conflict could reinforce doubts about Spain's ability to force budget discipline on its regions, which account for more than one third of spending and have been responsible for the bulk of the country's budget overruns in recent years. In a Friday research note, Barclays Bank PLC economists Fabio Fois and Philippe Gudin said a large majority for pro-independence parties in the Catalonia vote would undermine the central government's authority. "It will further complicate the ability of the Spanish government to rein in regional budget deficits, increasing the political cost of forcing compliance not only in Catalonia but elsewhere," they said.
Write to Jonathan House at [email protected] and Matt Moffett at [email protected]