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Thebattlefield impact of Badruddin Haqqani's death last week may not be felt untilnext year. We're told that Badruddin, thought to be one ofthe top operational commanders of the Haqqani network, had approved another twomonths of missions that are already in the works. But because the fightingseason will end at about the same time as they do, the effect of his deathwon't be clear until next spring, when fighting resumes. "You have a potentialloss of a key leader, but you're about 60 days out of closing the fightingseason, so that potentially masks the impact because of the timeframe," asenior ISAF official told FP. Still, the official said, the coalition expectsto see "reduced capacity" from the Haqqani network.
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Revenueskeep Haqqani alive. The network is a Pashtun group that is consideredresponsible for numerous attacks in Afghanistan but that operates with relativeimpunity from within tribal areas across the border in Pakistan's NorthWaziristan. It is one of the best-organized groups because of various andwell-established streams of revenue, including from the sale of both licit andillicit commodities. "A critical capability of the Haqqani network is itsfinancial capacity, which distinguishes them from other insurgent groupsoperating in Afghanistan," wrote the Institute for the Study of War's JeffDressler, who this week released a research paper on the group. "Because of itsdiversified and robust revenue streams, the Haqqani Network brings to bear apowerful and growing fighting force in Afghanistan." http://bit.ly/PJkYMt
Skillsets dwindling. Although Badruddin's death has beenconfirmed by multiple sources, ISAF officials say they have no way to confirmit independently. But there's little question his passing will have an effect,sooner or later, on a group whose leadership is reasonably centralized. Fewpeople could easily replace Badruddin's unique capabilities, the ISAF officialsaid. (Badruddin ran the network with his brothers Sirajuddin and Nasiruddinand other family members, and the group was founded by their father, JalaluddinHaqqani.) "The over-the-border influences don't change," the ISAF officialsaid. "But what you have is less capable leadership. The age and experiencelevel is slowly making its way down, and you're getting lower and lessexperienced fighters."
Meanwhile,the Haqqani network will be officially branded a terroristorganization, according to the NYT's Eric Schmitt today: "Many other senior officials, including several inthe White House, expressed deep reservations that blacklisting the group couldfurther damage badly frayed relations with Pakistan, undercut peace talks withthe Taliban, and possibly jeopardize the fate of Sgt. Bowe Bergdahl, the onlyAmerican soldier known to be held by the militants. But in the past few days,supporters of designating the group apparently eased most concerns or putforward contingencies to mitigate the risks and potential consequences." http://nyti.ms/QhVTwM
Earlierthis week, retired Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Adm.Mike Mullen stopped by the party FP held at its new offices on Dupont Circle tocelebrate the launch of its new national security channel, which includes threenew news blogs and a stable of new national security writers, including RosaBrooks, Gordon Adams, Lt. Gen. (ret.) Dave Barno, and many more. Mullenchatted with The Wall Street Journal's Adam Entous: http://bit.ly/TZrVKv
Theword is "attribution," and the Pentagon's ability to master it willmake it easier to quickly link cyber attacks to cyber villains. A top cyberofficial in the Pentagon told Killer Apps Man John Reed that the DefenseDepartment has "made a lot ofprogress" toward attribution, considered the "holy grail" of cyber security. "It's definitely not perfect andit's definitely not a silver bullet, but it's an area that we're makingprogress in," Eric Rosenbach, deputy assistant secretary of defense forcyber policy, told John. http://bit.ly/PMUGsT
Doyou find yourself losing the argument when you talk to your friendsabout drone warfare? Rosa Brooks'piece on FP, "What's Not Wrong with Drones," deconstructs the criticisms, from"drones kill civilians," to "drones turn killing into a video game," to "drone strikes are bad because killing at a distance isunsavory." In answer to that last, Ms. Brooks: "Really? If killing from a safe distance (say, Creech AirForce Base in Nevada) is somehow ‘wrong,' what should be our preferredalternative -- stripping troops of body armor, or taking away their guns andrequiring them to engage in hand-to-hand combat?" http://bit.ly/OnPgUY
Comingnext week: Rosa makes the case against drones.
Fivecriteria Obama uses before approving a drone attack: (asObama told CNN earlier this week; thanks to Danger Room). One, "that It has to be a target that isauthorized by our laws," two, that"It has to be a threat that is serious and not speculative," three, that it "has to be a situationin which we can't capture the individual before they move forward on some sortof operational plot against the United States," four, that "we've got to make sure that in whatever operations weconduct, we are very careful about avoiding civilian casualties," and five, "that while there is a legaljustification for us to try and stop [American citizens] from carrying outplots ... they are subject to the protections of the Constitution and dueprocess." http://bit.ly/cWdPhE
FP'sStephen Walt on Gen. Allen's "upbeat assessment" of the war: Walttakes Allen to task for being, like other ISAF commanders of the past, upbeatabout the situation on the ground. "Well, it's déjà vu all over again: Today, despite adramatic increase in "green on blue" attacks (i.e., attacks by Afghansecurity forces on U.S. or ISAF personnel) and the announced departure of otherU.S. allies, the latest American commander continues to portray our efforts ina positive light, especially with respect to the progress made by Afghansecurity forces." http://bit.ly/PMTdm9
EYEBALLING THE CHARLOTTE SPEECHES
Obama's pledge to end the war in Afghanistan by2014, and his reiteration ofthat pledge in Charlotte last night, has struck some as not altogether factual.It depends on what your definition of "over" is. The U.S. will have tonegotiateanother SOFA agreementwith the Afghans and, should they win this one, a small force -- likely heavilyfavoring special forces and other trainers -- will stay on for years to come.From last night: "In 2014, our longest war will be over."
NYT's Sanger: "Well, maybe. That is the deadline for pulling out all American andother foreign troops. But the White House has said that it envisions an ‘enduringforce' in Afghanistan for years to come that could amount to 10,000 to 15,000troops. They would not be in combat, but they would be there to stop theTaliban from overtaking Kabul, the capital, and to keep Pakistan from losingcontrol of its 100 or so nuclear weapons. The United States' combat role maysoon be over; it is less likely the war will be."
DEPT. OF CRYSTAL BALLING
Gettingintelligence right the first time. Michael C. Horowitzand Philip E. Tetlock write on FP that the National Intelligence Council mightget their intelligence predictions right more often if assigned themselves "more explicit,testable, and accurate probabilities to possible futures." "Academic research suggests that predicting events fiveyears into the future is so difficult that most experts perform only marginallybetter than dart-throwing chimps. Now imagine trying to predict over spans of15 to 20 years. Sisyphus arguably had it easier. But that has not deterred theintelligence community from trying; that is its job." http://bit.ly/QhYGR2
EMERGING CONFLICT
TheWall Street Journal's Jose de Cordoba and Darcy Crowe report Colombia's Santoswarns more short-term violence. "In an interview Thursday at the presidential palace,President Juan Manuel Santos said that holding talks with Latin America'sbiggest and oldest insurgency is well worth the risk of failure because an endto the conflict would not only would end bloodletting, but also bring a"peace dividend" of up to 2% additional economic growth a year to theAndean nation's economy. It already enjoys annual growth of about 5%."http://on.wsj.com/NYaQht
Thebattlefield impact of Badruddin Haqqani's death last week may not be felt untilnext year. We're told that Badruddin, thought to be one ofthe top operational commanders of the Haqqani network, had approved another twomonths of missions that are already in the works. But because the fightingseason will end at about the same time as they do, the effect of his deathwon't be clear until next spring, when fighting resumes. "You have a potentialloss of a key leader, but you're about 60 days out of closing the fightingseason, so that potentially masks the impact because of the timeframe," asenior ISAF official told FP. Still, the official said, the coalition expectsto see "reduced capacity" from the Haqqani network.
More... Revenueskeep Haqqani alive. The network is a Pashtun group that is consideredresponsible for numerous attacks in Afghanistan but that operates with relativeimpunity from within tribal areas across the border in Pakistan's NorthWaziristan. It is one of the best-organized groups because of various andwell-established streams of revenue, including from the sale of both licit andillicit commodities. "A critical capability of the Haqqani network is itsfinancial capacity, which distinguishes them from other insurgent groupsoperating in Afghanistan," wrote the Institute for the Study of War's JeffDressler, who this week released a research paper on the group. "Because of itsdiversified and robust revenue streams, the Haqqani Network brings to bear apowerful and growing fighting force in Afghanistan." http://bit.ly/PJkYMt
Skillsets dwindling. Although Badruddin's death has beenconfirmed by multiple sources, ISAF officials say they have no way to confirmit independently. But there's little question his passing will have an effect,sooner or later, on a group whose leadership is reasonably centralized. Fewpeople could easily replace Badruddin's unique capabilities, the ISAF officialsaid. (Badruddin ran the network with his brothers Sirajuddin and Nasiruddinand other family members, and the group was founded by their father, JalaluddinHaqqani.) "The over-the-border influences don't change," the ISAF officialsaid. "But what you have is less capable leadership. The age and experiencelevel is slowly making its way down, and you're getting lower and lessexperienced fighters."
Meanwhile,the Haqqani network will be officially branded a terroristorganization, according to the NYT's Eric Schmitt today: "Many other senior officials, including several inthe White House, expressed deep reservations that blacklisting the group couldfurther damage badly frayed relations with Pakistan, undercut peace talks withthe Taliban, and possibly jeopardize the fate of Sgt. Bowe Bergdahl, the onlyAmerican soldier known to be held by the militants. But in the past few days,supporters of designating the group apparently eased most concerns or putforward contingencies to mitigate the risks and potential consequences." http://nyti.ms/QhVTwM
Earlierthis week, retired Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Adm.Mike Mullen stopped by the party FP held at its new offices on Dupont Circle tocelebrate the launch of its new national security channel, which includes threenew news blogs and a stable of new national security writers, including RosaBrooks, Gordon Adams, Lt. Gen. (ret.) Dave Barno, and many more. Mullenchatted with The Wall Street Journal's Adam Entous: http://bit.ly/TZrVKv
Theword is "attribution," and the Pentagon's ability to master it willmake it easier to quickly link cyber attacks to cyber villains. A top cyberofficial in the Pentagon told Killer Apps Man John Reed that the DefenseDepartment has "made a lot ofprogress" toward attribution, considered the "holy grail" of cyber security. "It's definitely not perfect andit's definitely not a silver bullet, but it's an area that we're makingprogress in," Eric Rosenbach, deputy assistant secretary of defense forcyber policy, told John. http://bit.ly/PMUGsT
Doyou find yourself losing the argument when you talk to your friendsabout drone warfare? Rosa Brooks'piece on FP, "What's Not Wrong with Drones," deconstructs the criticisms, from"drones kill civilians," to "drones turn killing into a video game," to "drone strikes are bad because killing at a distance isunsavory." In answer to that last, Ms. Brooks: "Really? If killing from a safe distance (say, Creech AirForce Base in Nevada) is somehow ‘wrong,' what should be our preferredalternative -- stripping troops of body armor, or taking away their guns andrequiring them to engage in hand-to-hand combat?" http://bit.ly/OnPgUY
Comingnext week: Rosa makes the case against drones.
Fivecriteria Obama uses before approving a drone attack: (asObama told CNN earlier this week; thanks to Danger Room). One, "that It has to be a target that isauthorized by our laws," two, that"It has to be a threat that is serious and not speculative," three, that it "has to be a situationin which we can't capture the individual before they move forward on some sortof operational plot against the United States," four, that "we've got to make sure that in whatever operations weconduct, we are very careful about avoiding civilian casualties," and five, "that while there is a legaljustification for us to try and stop [American citizens] from carrying outplots ... they are subject to the protections of the Constitution and dueprocess." http://bit.ly/cWdPhE
FP'sStephen Walt on Gen. Allen's "upbeat assessment" of the war: Walttakes Allen to task for being, like other ISAF commanders of the past, upbeatabout the situation on the ground. "Well, it's déjà vu all over again: Today, despite adramatic increase in "green on blue" attacks (i.e., attacks by Afghansecurity forces on U.S. or ISAF personnel) and the announced departure of otherU.S. allies, the latest American commander continues to portray our efforts ina positive light, especially with respect to the progress made by Afghansecurity forces." http://bit.ly/PMTdm9
EYEBALLING THE CHARLOTTE SPEECHES
Obama's pledge to end the war in Afghanistan by2014, and his reiteration ofthat pledge in Charlotte last night, has struck some as not altogether factual.It depends on what your definition of "over" is. The U.S. will have tonegotiateanother SOFA agreementwith the Afghans and, should they win this one, a small force -- likely heavilyfavoring special forces and other trainers -- will stay on for years to come.From last night: "In 2014, our longest war will be over."
NYT's Sanger: "Well, maybe. That is the deadline for pulling out all American andother foreign troops. But the White House has said that it envisions an ‘enduringforce' in Afghanistan for years to come that could amount to 10,000 to 15,000troops. They would not be in combat, but they would be there to stop theTaliban from overtaking Kabul, the capital, and to keep Pakistan from losingcontrol of its 100 or so nuclear weapons. The United States' combat role maysoon be over; it is less likely the war will be."
DEPT. OF CRYSTAL BALLING
Gettingintelligence right the first time. Michael C. Horowitzand Philip E. Tetlock write on FP that the National Intelligence Council mightget their intelligence predictions right more often if assigned themselves "more explicit,testable, and accurate probabilities to possible futures." "Academic research suggests that predicting events fiveyears into the future is so difficult that most experts perform only marginallybetter than dart-throwing chimps. Now imagine trying to predict over spans of15 to 20 years. Sisyphus arguably had it easier. But that has not deterred theintelligence community from trying; that is its job." http://bit.ly/QhYGR2
EMERGING CONFLICT
TheWall Street Journal's Jose de Cordoba and Darcy Crowe report Colombia's Santoswarns more short-term violence. "In an interview Thursday at the presidential palace,President Juan Manuel Santos said that holding talks with Latin America'sbiggest and oldest insurgency is well worth the risk of failure because an endto the conflict would not only would end bloodletting, but also bring a"peace dividend" of up to 2% additional economic growth a year to theAndean nation's economy. It already enjoys annual growth of about 5%."http://on.wsj.com/NYaQht