Since the Egyptian army ousted Mohamed Morsi last month, the country’s television stations have been broadcasting a new song. Against images of tanks rolling, jet fighters streaking across the sky and soldiers somersaulting over obstacles, the lyrics pay tribute to the military for saving the country.
Whenever the song praises the “brave man” and “hero” who led the operation, the picture cuts to a general in a medal-encrusted uniform and dark sunglasses: Abdel Fattah al-Sisi, the defence minister, who has become the object of adulation for a swath of Egyptians, and whose presidential ambitions – or the lack of them – are the focus of speculation in Cairo and beyond.
In a televised speech to military commanders on Sunday – his first public remarks since the security services cleared two Islamist protest camps last week, killing hundreds of Morsi supporters – Gen Sisi appeared keen to emphasise that the military had no wish to rule.
“They say this is the rule of the soldiers, but by God I tell you this is not the rule of the soldiers, nor is there the slightest desire to rule Egypt,” he said. “I want to tell you that to us, and to me personally, it is dearer and more honourable to protect the will of the people than to rule Egypt.”
To his Islamist opponents, Mr Sisi is a hypocrite who went against the will of the people by overthrowing an elected president and then proceeded to kill hundreds of protesters demanding the reinstatement of the rightful leader.
But in a polarised country where the media now terms all Islamists terrorists and where a sizeable section of the population has been rattled by political turmoil and mounting insecurity, analysts say Mr Sisi would stand an excellent chance of winning if he stood for election.
“I think it is clear he has huge political ambitions, either to rule directly, or from behind the scenes,” said Tewfik Aclimandos, an associate researcher at the College de France who studies the Egyptian military. “But the decision is not solely his, it is also in the hands of the military institution collectively.”
The 57-year-old career officer, who received training in both the UK and the US, is known to be a pious Muslim, despite his antipathy to the Muslim Brotherhood. He is also a confident orator whom analysts say believes in a strong Egyptian state with a paternalistic attitude towards its people, and he has cast his ouster of Mr Morsi as necessary to spare the country from civil war.
“What we did simply was protect the country from civil conflict, and we have said that we prefer the fighting to be with us [the army],” he said. “We will put up with being fought against rather than have them [the Islamists] fight the Egyptian people. Are you blaming us for loving our country, or what?”
Lindsey Graham, the US senator who flew to Egypt earlier this month to lend his weight to talks aimed at helping the military-backed authorities reach an agreement with the Islamists, described the defence minister to the New York Times as “a little bit intoxicated with power”.
The general, who served as head of military intelligence before Mr Morsi appointed him defence minister is the “first among equals” in the military establishment, according to Michael Wahid Hanna, a researcher with the Century Foundation in New York.
“I don’t think it is a foregone conclusion that he will run,” he said. “If you become president you are responsible for everything, and you are to blame when the economy goes south. I think he would be less powerful than if he were one step removed from power, but still the ultimate authority. The next presidential election will be a managed process and whoever gets elected will have to have the blessing of the army.”
Much, however, will depend on the level and duration of the unrest that has been unleashed in the country by the ouster of Mr Morsi. Many fear that sections of the Islamist movement, thwarted in the quest for power through the ballot box, will resort to violence. Attacks against police stations, churches and local government offices have swept the country since the crackdown on the protest camps.
“The militarisation of the fight would make it possible for a leader to come from the army,” said Wael Khalil, a leftwing political activist. “But if there is a return to a political process there will be no case for that and it will meet with opposition. For me, if he runs, it will be a setback for democracy and I definitely will resist it.”
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Whenever the song praises the “brave man” and “hero” who led the operation, the picture cuts to a general in a medal-encrusted uniform and dark sunglasses: Abdel Fattah al-Sisi, the defence minister, who has become the object of adulation for a swath of Egyptians, and whose presidential ambitions – or the lack of them – are the focus of speculation in Cairo and beyond.
In a televised speech to military commanders on Sunday – his first public remarks since the security services cleared two Islamist protest camps last week, killing hundreds of Morsi supporters – Gen Sisi appeared keen to emphasise that the military had no wish to rule.
“They say this is the rule of the soldiers, but by God I tell you this is not the rule of the soldiers, nor is there the slightest desire to rule Egypt,” he said. “I want to tell you that to us, and to me personally, it is dearer and more honourable to protect the will of the people than to rule Egypt.”
To his Islamist opponents, Mr Sisi is a hypocrite who went against the will of the people by overthrowing an elected president and then proceeded to kill hundreds of protesters demanding the reinstatement of the rightful leader.
But in a polarised country where the media now terms all Islamists terrorists and where a sizeable section of the population has been rattled by political turmoil and mounting insecurity, analysts say Mr Sisi would stand an excellent chance of winning if he stood for election.
“I think it is clear he has huge political ambitions, either to rule directly, or from behind the scenes,” said Tewfik Aclimandos, an associate researcher at the College de France who studies the Egyptian military. “But the decision is not solely his, it is also in the hands of the military institution collectively.”
The 57-year-old career officer, who received training in both the UK and the US, is known to be a pious Muslim, despite his antipathy to the Muslim Brotherhood. He is also a confident orator whom analysts say believes in a strong Egyptian state with a paternalistic attitude towards its people, and he has cast his ouster of Mr Morsi as necessary to spare the country from civil war.
“What we did simply was protect the country from civil conflict, and we have said that we prefer the fighting to be with us [the army],” he said. “We will put up with being fought against rather than have them [the Islamists] fight the Egyptian people. Are you blaming us for loving our country, or what?”
Lindsey Graham, the US senator who flew to Egypt earlier this month to lend his weight to talks aimed at helping the military-backed authorities reach an agreement with the Islamists, described the defence minister to the New York Times as “a little bit intoxicated with power”.
The general, who served as head of military intelligence before Mr Morsi appointed him defence minister is the “first among equals” in the military establishment, according to Michael Wahid Hanna, a researcher with the Century Foundation in New York.
“I don’t think it is a foregone conclusion that he will run,” he said. “If you become president you are responsible for everything, and you are to blame when the economy goes south. I think he would be less powerful than if he were one step removed from power, but still the ultimate authority. The next presidential election will be a managed process and whoever gets elected will have to have the blessing of the army.”
Much, however, will depend on the level and duration of the unrest that has been unleashed in the country by the ouster of Mr Morsi. Many fear that sections of the Islamist movement, thwarted in the quest for power through the ballot box, will resort to violence. Attacks against police stations, churches and local government offices have swept the country since the crackdown on the protest camps.
“The militarisation of the fight would make it possible for a leader to come from the army,” said Wael Khalil, a leftwing political activist. “But if there is a return to a political process there will be no case for that and it will meet with opposition. For me, if he runs, it will be a setback for democracy and I definitely will resist it.”
Copyright The Financial Times Limited 2013. You may share using our article tools.
Please don't cut articles from FT.com and redistribute by email or post to the web.