[h=3]By PAUL VIEIRA[/h]Canada's French-speaking province of Quebec is voting Tuesday in a closely followed provincial election that is expected to return the pro-separatist Parti Quebecois to power after nearly a decade.
Results aren't expected until late Tuesday, with polls closing at 8 p.m. PQ leader Pauline Marois, whose party advocates separation from Canada, is holding solid leads in outside polling. Even if PQ wins, however, it is unclear whether Ms. Marois will be able to muster enough seats to secure a majority for her party. If she falls short, she would be forced to rule with a minority government, dependent on the support of either the incumbent Liberal party or the newly formed Coalition Avenir Quebec.
Despite PQ's long-stated commitment to another referendum on separation, that issue isn't a major one in the polls this time around. Quebecers aren't generally supportive of such a move, and the PQ itself has made it clear that it isn't a top priority if it were to win.
Pollsters and political analysts said the PQ's strong polling has more to do with widespread fatigue with the Liberal Party government of Premier Jean Charest, which has led Quebec for nine years and has recently struggled through the spring with sometimes-violent student strikes. Mr. Charest's government has pushed through unpopular tax increases and proposed spending cuts, and his administration has established a public inquiry to probe corruption allegations involving Quebec political parties, organized crime and the construction industry.
Polling released in the days leading up to Tuesday's vote suggested the PQ has the backing of roughly one-third of Quebec voters. The Liberals and CAQ, a new party with a right-leaning bent that has pledged to ignore the sovereignty issue, are both polling in the mid-to-high 20% range.
The distribution of Quebec electoral districts, called "ridings" in Canada, favor the rural part of the province, which are mostly francophone and areas of hard-core PQ support, according to political analyst Bruce Hicks of Montreal's Concordia University. That could be enough to deliver the party a majority.
The PQ's platform has long included a push for another referendum. Quebecers rejected the last one by a thin margin in 1995. Since then, popular support for separation has ebbed. Ms. Marois has said she is reluctant to hold a referendum without assurances of a victory. Analysts said she could use the premiership to try to resuscitate the issue.
Canadian financial markets have taken the polling in stride. In past upturns of separatist sentiment in the province, investors have tended to flee any sense of political uncertainty. But the Canadian dollar and Canadian bond markets haven't moved much ahead of the polls. The yield spread between Quebec provincial debt and comparable notes from Ontario has widened, however, suggesting investors see Quebec debt as riskier amid the polls.
Charles St-Arnaud, fixed-income strategist at Nomura Securities in New York and a former Bank of Canada analyst, said a PQ win would have a "very marginal negative impact" on Canadian assets.
"We believe that since the likelihood of a referendum remains low," he said. "Investors should fade any reactions to the elections."
Results aren't expected until late Tuesday, with polls closing at 8 p.m. PQ leader Pauline Marois, whose party advocates separation from Canada, is holding solid leads in outside polling. Even if PQ wins, however, it is unclear whether Ms. Marois will be able to muster enough seats to secure a majority for her party. If she falls short, she would be forced to rule with a minority government, dependent on the support of either the incumbent Liberal party or the newly formed Coalition Avenir Quebec.
Despite PQ's long-stated commitment to another referendum on separation, that issue isn't a major one in the polls this time around. Quebecers aren't generally supportive of such a move, and the PQ itself has made it clear that it isn't a top priority if it were to win.
Pollsters and political analysts said the PQ's strong polling has more to do with widespread fatigue with the Liberal Party government of Premier Jean Charest, which has led Quebec for nine years and has recently struggled through the spring with sometimes-violent student strikes. Mr. Charest's government has pushed through unpopular tax increases and proposed spending cuts, and his administration has established a public inquiry to probe corruption allegations involving Quebec political parties, organized crime and the construction industry.
Polling released in the days leading up to Tuesday's vote suggested the PQ has the backing of roughly one-third of Quebec voters. The Liberals and CAQ, a new party with a right-leaning bent that has pledged to ignore the sovereignty issue, are both polling in the mid-to-high 20% range.
The distribution of Quebec electoral districts, called "ridings" in Canada, favor the rural part of the province, which are mostly francophone and areas of hard-core PQ support, according to political analyst Bruce Hicks of Montreal's Concordia University. That could be enough to deliver the party a majority.
The PQ's platform has long included a push for another referendum. Quebecers rejected the last one by a thin margin in 1995. Since then, popular support for separation has ebbed. Ms. Marois has said she is reluctant to hold a referendum without assurances of a victory. Analysts said she could use the premiership to try to resuscitate the issue.
Canadian financial markets have taken the polling in stride. In past upturns of separatist sentiment in the province, investors have tended to flee any sense of political uncertainty. But the Canadian dollar and Canadian bond markets haven't moved much ahead of the polls. The yield spread between Quebec provincial debt and comparable notes from Ontario has widened, however, suggesting investors see Quebec debt as riskier amid the polls.
Charles St-Arnaud, fixed-income strategist at Nomura Securities in New York and a former Bank of Canada analyst, said a PQ win would have a "very marginal negative impact" on Canadian assets.
"We believe that since the likelihood of a referendum remains low," he said. "Investors should fade any reactions to the elections."