ROME — Pope Benedict XVI’s surprise decision to resign on Monday immediately set off a flurry of speculation about his replacement, who will be called upon to guide the Roman Catholic Church through an increasingly secular era in which the church has lost the certainty it claimed for centuries.
Some Vatican observers predicted that the growing importance of the developing world to the church could weigh on the decision and, perhaps, lead to the choice of a non-European pope. But the voting bloc of cardinals coming from Europe remains sizable and influential, experts said.
“It’s a premature question, though it’s clear that two non-Italian popes in a row have broken the notion that the pope has to be Italian,” said Alberto Melloni, a historian of the Roman Catholic Church and director of the John XXIII Center in Bologna, a liberal Catholic research institute. “But the church is not the Austro-Hungarian Empire where leaders alternate between countries. The pope is first of all bishop of Rome, and then the leader of the universal church.”
Vatican experts argued that vision, rather than geography, would likely determine who would replace Benedict, and that the ability to communicate with a distracted world would be high on the list of desirable qualities. As nearly all of the cardinals eligible to vote were appointed by the current pope or his predecessor, John Paul II, it is likely that the next pope will share strong continuity in terms of vision and doctrine.
That said, bookmakers quickly issued the odds on the top contenders, with Cardinal Marc Ouellet of Canada, Cardinal Francis Arinze of Nigeria, and Cardinal Peter Appiah Turkson of Ghana among the early favorites. Cardinal Angelo Scola, the archbishop of Milan, was among the few Italians who was considered in the running by outsiders.
But there were those who noted that Pope Benedict appointed 67 of the 118 cardinals who will appoint his successor, and that 37 of them were from Europe, which remains the most substantial voting block and potentially the most influential.
“There’s a very strong likelihood that it would be someone from Europe,” said the Rev. Thomas J. Reese, senior fellow at the Woodstock Theological Center.
With the College of Cardinals in many ways reflecting the views of the pope and his predecessor, some Vatican experts suggested that the future pope would have similar theological positions, like Cardinal Ouellet and Cardinal Scola, as well as Cardinal Cristoph Schoborn of Vienna.
John Allen, a Vatican expert and biographer of Benedict XVI, said Cardinal Timothy Dolan, the archbishop of New York, could be a contender in a “multi-power” world in which America is no longer the one super power.
Acknowledgment of the growth of the importance of developing countries might also sway the choice.
In Brazil, the country with the world’s largest Catholic population but one in which many feel distant from the Vatican, news of the pope’s decision to step down came during the throes of the annual Carnival celebration.
“I see so many people who say they are Catholic and do not go to church,” said Francisco Machado, 55, who was selling wigs and confetti to celebrants on a sidewalk in Rio de Janeiro. He described himself and his wife as practicing Catholics but said they were rare among their friends in actually regularly attending Mass.
Mr. Machado expressed skepticism over whether the next pope could come from Brazil. “We are not prepared to have a Brazilian pope, given the way the church is going,” he said.
Andrew Chesnut, an expert on Latin American religions at Virginia Commonwealth University, said that the church faced big challenges in the region, even as Vatican leaders contemplate shifting demographics, with an estimated half of the world’s Catholics now living in Latin America.
“The smart move for the Vatican for the future of the world church, which lies in the global south, would be a Latin American or African pope,” Mr. Chesnut said. Still, he acknowledged that support for a European pope could pose an obstacle to such a choice if the Vatican focuses on the decline of the church in Europe.
Reporting was contributed by Lydia Polgreen from Johannesburg, Simon Romero and Taylor Barnes from Rio de Janeiro, and Elisabeth Malkin and Karla Zabludovsky from Mexico City.
Some Vatican observers predicted that the growing importance of the developing world to the church could weigh on the decision and, perhaps, lead to the choice of a non-European pope. But the voting bloc of cardinals coming from Europe remains sizable and influential, experts said.
“It’s a premature question, though it’s clear that two non-Italian popes in a row have broken the notion that the pope has to be Italian,” said Alberto Melloni, a historian of the Roman Catholic Church and director of the John XXIII Center in Bologna, a liberal Catholic research institute. “But the church is not the Austro-Hungarian Empire where leaders alternate between countries. The pope is first of all bishop of Rome, and then the leader of the universal church.”
Vatican experts argued that vision, rather than geography, would likely determine who would replace Benedict, and that the ability to communicate with a distracted world would be high on the list of desirable qualities. As nearly all of the cardinals eligible to vote were appointed by the current pope or his predecessor, John Paul II, it is likely that the next pope will share strong continuity in terms of vision and doctrine.
That said, bookmakers quickly issued the odds on the top contenders, with Cardinal Marc Ouellet of Canada, Cardinal Francis Arinze of Nigeria, and Cardinal Peter Appiah Turkson of Ghana among the early favorites. Cardinal Angelo Scola, the archbishop of Milan, was among the few Italians who was considered in the running by outsiders.
But there were those who noted that Pope Benedict appointed 67 of the 118 cardinals who will appoint his successor, and that 37 of them were from Europe, which remains the most substantial voting block and potentially the most influential.
“There’s a very strong likelihood that it would be someone from Europe,” said the Rev. Thomas J. Reese, senior fellow at the Woodstock Theological Center.
With the College of Cardinals in many ways reflecting the views of the pope and his predecessor, some Vatican experts suggested that the future pope would have similar theological positions, like Cardinal Ouellet and Cardinal Scola, as well as Cardinal Cristoph Schoborn of Vienna.
John Allen, a Vatican expert and biographer of Benedict XVI, said Cardinal Timothy Dolan, the archbishop of New York, could be a contender in a “multi-power” world in which America is no longer the one super power.
Acknowledgment of the growth of the importance of developing countries might also sway the choice.
In Brazil, the country with the world’s largest Catholic population but one in which many feel distant from the Vatican, news of the pope’s decision to step down came during the throes of the annual Carnival celebration.
“I see so many people who say they are Catholic and do not go to church,” said Francisco Machado, 55, who was selling wigs and confetti to celebrants on a sidewalk in Rio de Janeiro. He described himself and his wife as practicing Catholics but said they were rare among their friends in actually regularly attending Mass.
Mr. Machado expressed skepticism over whether the next pope could come from Brazil. “We are not prepared to have a Brazilian pope, given the way the church is going,” he said.
Andrew Chesnut, an expert on Latin American religions at Virginia Commonwealth University, said that the church faced big challenges in the region, even as Vatican leaders contemplate shifting demographics, with an estimated half of the world’s Catholics now living in Latin America.
“The smart move for the Vatican for the future of the world church, which lies in the global south, would be a Latin American or African pope,” Mr. Chesnut said. Still, he acknowledged that support for a European pope could pose an obstacle to such a choice if the Vatican focuses on the decline of the church in Europe.
Reporting was contributed by Lydia Polgreen from Johannesburg, Simon Romero and Taylor Barnes from Rio de Janeiro, and Elisabeth Malkin and Karla Zabludovsky from Mexico City.