By David Lauter
3:11 p.m. EST, September 8, 2012
Supporters hoist signs reading "Forward" as US President Barack Obama states his acceptance to run for a second term as president at the Time Warner Cable Arena in Charlotte, North Carolina, on September 6, 2012 on the final day of the Democratic National Convention (DNC). (Brendan Smialowski / AFP / Getty Images / Sep 08, 2012)
President Obama’s post-convention “bounce” continued to grow Saturday, as new polls showed him widening a lead over Republican nominee Mitt Romney.
Obama’s lead over Romney among registered voters grew to 49%-45% in Gallup’s tracking poll. The 49% for Obama was his highest point in the survey since late April. It represented an increase of one point since Friday and a five point swing from Romney’s 47%-46% lead in the Gallup survey just before the Republican convention began.
The poll combines small samples taken each night to present a seven-day average. Since three of the nights of the survey period preceded the Democratic convention, Obama’s lead in the survey is likely to grow further.
Gallup’s measure of job approval also continued to improve for Obama, with 52% of adults saying they approved of his performance in office, compared with 42% disapproving. That survey uses a three-day average.
Two other tracking polls, the Rasmussen and Reuters/Ipsos surveys, also showed Obama with a lead. In the Rasmussen tracking poll, a three-day average which has tended to show better results for Romney, Obama led 46%-44% among likely voters, up from a one-point deficit on Friday and a six-point swing from just after the Republican convention.
In his account of the survey results, pollster Scott Rasmussen noted that for the first time in his survey, Democrats were now following the campaign as closely as Republican voters, a measure that often predicts turnout.
So far, the polls indicate that Obama gained considerably more from his convention than did Romney, who gained only a small bounce. How much further Obama’s lead will grow and whether it proves lasting will be key questions over the next week.
As the word implies, a “bounce” can be fickle. Candidates almost always benefit from a week of concentrated coverage of their message, but in some years, the advantage fades quickly.
That’s not always the case, however. In 2004, George W. Bush got a substantial boost from his convention and established a lead over Sen. John Kerry (D-Mass.) which held up through election day. Obama’s aides have carefully studied Bush’s campaign as a model of how a president can win reelection in a sharply polarized electorate.
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3:11 p.m. EST, September 8, 2012
Supporters hoist signs reading "Forward" as US President Barack Obama states his acceptance to run for a second term as president at the Time Warner Cable Arena in Charlotte, North Carolina, on September 6, 2012 on the final day of the Democratic National Convention (DNC). (Brendan Smialowski / AFP / Getty Images / Sep 08, 2012)
President Obama’s post-convention “bounce” continued to grow Saturday, as new polls showed him widening a lead over Republican nominee Mitt Romney.
Obama’s lead over Romney among registered voters grew to 49%-45% in Gallup’s tracking poll. The 49% for Obama was his highest point in the survey since late April. It represented an increase of one point since Friday and a five point swing from Romney’s 47%-46% lead in the Gallup survey just before the Republican convention began.
The poll combines small samples taken each night to present a seven-day average. Since three of the nights of the survey period preceded the Democratic convention, Obama’s lead in the survey is likely to grow further.
Gallup’s measure of job approval also continued to improve for Obama, with 52% of adults saying they approved of his performance in office, compared with 42% disapproving. That survey uses a three-day average.
Two other tracking polls, the Rasmussen and Reuters/Ipsos surveys, also showed Obama with a lead. In the Rasmussen tracking poll, a three-day average which has tended to show better results for Romney, Obama led 46%-44% among likely voters, up from a one-point deficit on Friday and a six-point swing from just after the Republican convention.
In his account of the survey results, pollster Scott Rasmussen noted that for the first time in his survey, Democrats were now following the campaign as closely as Republican voters, a measure that often predicts turnout.
So far, the polls indicate that Obama gained considerably more from his convention than did Romney, who gained only a small bounce. How much further Obama’s lead will grow and whether it proves lasting will be key questions over the next week.
As the word implies, a “bounce” can be fickle. Candidates almost always benefit from a week of concentrated coverage of their message, but in some years, the advantage fades quickly.
That’s not always the case, however. In 2004, George W. Bush got a substantial boost from his convention and established a lead over Sen. John Kerry (D-Mass.) which held up through election day. Obama’s aides have carefully studied Bush’s campaign as a model of how a president can win reelection in a sharply polarized electorate.
Follow Politics Now on Twitter and Facebook
[email protected]
twitter.com/@DavidLauter