The last four months of the Atlantic hurricane season may be busy ones. Government forecasters upgraded their seasonal hurricane forecast Thursday to an 85% chance of normal or above-average hurricane activity.
In May, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration predicted nine to 15 storms during hurricane season, which runs from June 1 to Nov. 30.
NOAA now expects 12 to 17 named storms and five to eight hurricanes, two or three of which are likely to be major hurricanes – categories 3, 4 or 5, with winds stronger than 111 mph. A normal hurricane season produces a dozen named storms and six hurricanes, three of which are major.
The change was made in part to reflect this year’s level of storm activity, NOAA said, as well as storm-conducive wind patterns and warmer-than-normal water surface temperatures in the Atlantic Ocean.
“We’re seeing tropical cloud systems come off of Africa, one after another,” said Gerry Bell, a hurricane forecaster at the Climate Prediction Center. “Often times, these are the storms that become hurricanes.”
The upgrade could seem like a mixed message, scientists said, because the country is under an El Nino watch. Before the current season began, such a warming of the Pacific Ocean was expected to form early, lending to a calming effect in the later months of hurricane season.
El Nino typically has broad implications for U.S. weather patterns, including milder Atlantic hurricane seasons. El Nino changes Atlantic wind shear – the speed or direction of winds at different levels of the atmosphere – which in turn prevents tropical storms from strengthening.
“Usually there’s a delay between when it forms and when it impacts the season,” Bell said in an interview with the Los Angeles Times. “Now it looks like it will impact the season, but just the later part.”
The Atlantic has already seen six named storms this year, two of which were Category 1 hurricanes: Chris, which did not make landfall; and Ernesto, currently storming on southern Mexico. NOAA only names tropical storms, a designation given to winds rotating faster than 39 mph in a counterclockwise direction.
NOAA stressed readiness for residents of the Atlantic and gulf coasts. The hurricane website ready.gov lists tips to help families prepare for hurricane season and its threats, including storm surges, heavy rainfall and tornadoes.
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In May, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration predicted nine to 15 storms during hurricane season, which runs from June 1 to Nov. 30.
NOAA now expects 12 to 17 named storms and five to eight hurricanes, two or three of which are likely to be major hurricanes – categories 3, 4 or 5, with winds stronger than 111 mph. A normal hurricane season produces a dozen named storms and six hurricanes, three of which are major.
The change was made in part to reflect this year’s level of storm activity, NOAA said, as well as storm-conducive wind patterns and warmer-than-normal water surface temperatures in the Atlantic Ocean.
“We’re seeing tropical cloud systems come off of Africa, one after another,” said Gerry Bell, a hurricane forecaster at the Climate Prediction Center. “Often times, these are the storms that become hurricanes.”
The upgrade could seem like a mixed message, scientists said, because the country is under an El Nino watch. Before the current season began, such a warming of the Pacific Ocean was expected to form early, lending to a calming effect in the later months of hurricane season.
El Nino typically has broad implications for U.S. weather patterns, including milder Atlantic hurricane seasons. El Nino changes Atlantic wind shear – the speed or direction of winds at different levels of the atmosphere – which in turn prevents tropical storms from strengthening.
“Usually there’s a delay between when it forms and when it impacts the season,” Bell said in an interview with the Los Angeles Times. “Now it looks like it will impact the season, but just the later part.”
The Atlantic has already seen six named storms this year, two of which were Category 1 hurricanes: Chris, which did not make landfall; and Ernesto, currently storming on southern Mexico. NOAA only names tropical storms, a designation given to winds rotating faster than 39 mph in a counterclockwise direction.
NOAA stressed readiness for residents of the Atlantic and gulf coasts. The hurricane website ready.gov lists tips to help families prepare for hurricane season and its threats, including storm surges, heavy rainfall and tornadoes.
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Follow Laura on Twitter. Email: [email protected].