No One Knows if the Future Will Be Warmer or Colder - Why Do You Believe It Will Be...

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Dr Jello

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...Warmer? Face it - No one can predict the future, no one knows if it will be warmer or colder years from now.

Still some believe they have the key, they know what the climate is going to be with out any doubt. They know that it will be warmer just like some believe they know what the lottery numbers will be at tonight's drawing.

However they believe without any proof at all. No one can present any mathematical formula or computer model showing how they got to their conclusion. The best they can say is that since today is warmer than it was in 1976, then it has to be warmer in 2036 than it is today.

Specious logic at best.

So if no one can prove that it will be warmer or colder in the future, why do people believe that it will have to be warmer?
 
Ok. This question is totally fallacious in its argument. No, you can't "predict" the future, but by knowing basic facts about what is going on, you can formulate a possibility that is so likely as to be practically a fact. For example, I know that tomorrow I will be attending a PFF meeting at my school in the morning at 10 am. Yes, it is possible I will die or get sick or the meeting will get canceled, but the odds are so small that it is more than fair to say, "Yes, I am going to that meeting." I am an expert on the situation and I have all the available information.

Global warming is no different. Scientists and climate experts have studied the past, current conditions, and the physical laws involved in understanding how climate and weather works. They are just that-- experts. There is a LOT more to it than what you are describing, too. It is NOT just looking at the past and guessing. There are specific effects that have occurring in the atmosphere, and significant changes in the temperature and weather. For example, the Montana glacier is all but gone. It has been there for THOUSANDS OF YEARS, and within two decades it has suddenly melted. That is much different than looking at 1976 and guessing what will happen in the next few years, and that is one of thousands of examples.

But to put it more simply: 95% of all the EXPERTS in the field say global warming is a real phenomenon and a real problem. Of the remaining 5%, most of them are employed by industries that are guilty of polluting the globe and lack any objectivity, and often lack the qualifications to be called "experts." One of the most famous books about global warming not being a valid condition was written by someone who had never studied the climate before, but suddenly thought he knew everything about it when Exxon-Mobile gave him half a million bucks to write it. Some of you anti-global warming would say the same thing about my side, but think about it... thousands of scientists who are experts on climate? They'll get paid regardless of what they say. It is their job to study the climate, not to make anything up.That is what they are paid to do. There is no ulterior motive to be had. There is no "global warming" industry to protect through lies and false data. BIG difference between Exxon-Mobil and thousands of universities all over the world that will exist regardless of evironmental protection.

Now, I admit I am not an expert. But who should I believe in regards to global warming? Scientists? Or you? Let me see... should I listen to you, or the experts? You? Experts? You? Experts? Hmm....
 
I find the thesis of your question amusing, that no one can predict whether the future will be warmer or colder, because you in fact DID make a prediction about that just yesterday!

You predicted that the rest of the winter would be cold enough to prove NOAA scientists wrong on their prediction for the winter, even though winter has just begun. So you not only believe that people can predict whether it will be warmer or colder, but you believe you can do it better than NOAA!

What do you base your forecasts on? Clearly not logic.
 
Face it, there is some basis to that thing we call science.

Scientists can and do predict that the climate is warming, and they are right. They don't claim to do so on a daily, weekly or monthly or even eyarly basis - that is the realm of TV weather reporters (and weather is not climate).

For the longer term though, climatologists are proving to be pretty accurate, and people examine their computer models all the time. That's how the understanding and accuracy of science keeps growing.

Tell Barack Obama the Truth – The Whole Truth
http://www.columbia.edu/~jeh1/mailings/20081121_Obama.pdf

P.S. - Nice to have you back (who was that phony who blocked people?). The real Dr. Jello wouldn't be afraid of a little disagreement of controversy (or a pesky thing like scientific evidence). In fact, it's more fun when you can provoke people in the course of denial, isn't it?
 
Because they fail to understand logistics of the earth -- have a look for yourself: They have no scientific platform from which to stand.

George Carlin on Global Warming:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ljNDbKpusT0

This is hilarious b/c of the logical approach he takes to discounting BS.

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Don't put so much faith in "experts". Experts are the reason for our current economic crisis -- experts run our government -- experts help you manage your money (some are good, most are terrible).

And by the way, it all depends on the TYPE of expert they are as well. Those "experts" with an economic interest in "Global Warming" surely don't have your best interest at hand.

Nasa confirms the earth is cooling -- waters are cooling -- temps are cooling -- arctic ice-caps are growing.

You can cherry pick your information as much as you like -- fact is there are still objective scientists out there who will give you the factual information for the day...not use some correlations that have no factual background to make you believe you have to accommodate for your "carbon footprint" for the bargain price of $xxx.xx for each credit. Follow the money.
 
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