Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu used a drawing of a cartoonish, short-fused bomb to challenge the international community at the United Nations to shut down what he says is Iran’s sophisticated effort to attain nuclear weapons.
Now the world, in particular the U.S., will have to decide what steps may need to be taken to defuse the potentially explosive stand-off between Israel and Iran. Netanyahu focused on Iran’s production of enriched uranium, potential atomic bomb fuel if removed from international safeguards and further processed.
“By next spring, at most next summer, at current enrichment rates, they will have finished the medium enrichment and moved on to the final stage,” Netanyahu told the UN General Assembly yesterday, displaying a rudimentary bomb diagram to illustrate the Iran’s progress. “From there it’s only a few months, possibly a few weeks, before they get enough enriched uranium for the first bomb.”
This was the most specific deadline on the Iranian crisis given by the Israeli leader, who has repeatedly warned that “all options are on the table” to stop the Islamic Republic from achieving nuclear weapons capability -- including a military strike. While Netanyahu’s remarks may have more sharply defined the parameters of the Iran endgame, they also provided the U.S. and its allies a clearer time period to pursue their own mix of diplomacy and economic sanctions.
[h=2]Nuclear Threshold[/h]“What was new was Netanyahu’s focus on the threshold of when we might lose our ability to prevent Iran from becoming a nuclear weapons state,” said Dennis Ross, a former Iran adviser to President Barack Obama who is now at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy. “While creating a sense of urgency, it reduces the sense of imminent strike.”
Iran, which says its nuclear facilities are for peaceful civilian purposes, has vowed to retaliate if attacked. Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad condemned what he termed the “continued threat by the uncivilized Zionists to resort to a military action against our great nation” in his speech to the UN this week.
Netanyahu’s speech yesterday in New York followed weeks of open disagreement with the Obama administration over Iran. The Israeli leader has insisted the best way to stop Iran’s nuclear program is to set explicit “red lines” limiting its enrichment of uranium that would justify military action if crossed.
“Red lines don’t lead to war, they prevent war,” he said at the UN.
[h=2]Diplomatic Efforts[/h]The U.S. and Europe have rejected that approach, preferring a combination of economic sanctions directed against Iran and diplomatic engagement with its government. The sanctions, which include a European Union embargo on oil imports from Iran and a range of U.S. measures, have damaged the country’s economy while failing to halt the advancement of its nuclear program. Nor have direct negotiations between Iran and the so-called P5+1 nations -- the U.S., China, Russia, France, Germany and the U.K. -- produced tangible results so far.
Ministers from the P5+1 group met yesterday at the UN and reaffirmed their “dual track approach” of sanctions and negotiations to rein in Iran’s nuclear ambitions.
A senior U.S. State Department official, who spoke on condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the issue, said that Europe is discussing plans to levy additional sanctions, while the Obama administration has begun implementing tougher measures directed against the National Iranian Oil Company. The U.S. Treasury Department announced action Sept. 24 that exposes foreign financial institutions that deal with the company to U.S. sanctions.
[h=2]Iranian Economy[/h]In one sign of the impact of sanctions, Iran’s currency, the rial, fell yesterday to a record low 27,200 against the U.S. dollar on the open market, the Mehr news agency reported. The rial traded at 17,000 in mid-January in the Tehran bazaar.
Netanyahu acknowledged that the “Iran economy has been hit hard” by sanctions, while insisting that setting red lines was the only way to stop the Islamic Republic’s nuclear ambition. At the same time, the Haaretz newspaper yesterday published a leaked Israeli Foreign Ministry report that approvingly noted the impact of the sanctions and recommended that another round be directed against Iran.
After his UN speech, Netanyahu met for 75 minutes with U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton after publicly clashing with her over Iran earlier this month. The U.S. is “not setting deadlines” for Iran and still considers negotiations as “by far the best approach,” Clinton said in an interview with Bloomberg Radio on Sept. 9. Netanyahu responded two days later that “those in the international community who refuse to put a red line before Iran don’t have the moral right to place a red light before Israel” to forestall military action.
[h=2]Obama Call[/h]Netanyahu is scheduled to hold further discussions on Iran today in a phone call with Obama, according to Israeli government spokesman Mark Regev. The call comes in place of a face-to-face meeting the White House said didn’t take place because of scheduling issues with the election so close.
Netanyahu did meet yesterday with New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg at his official Gracie Mansion residence. Bloomberg, founder and majority owner of Bloomberg News parent Bloomberg LP, said the Israeli leader “made a very compelling case today why a clear red line is needed, and why that will help preserve peace. And I am sure that the U.S. and Israel can work out a common policy in the interests of both nations and in the interests of peace.”
[h=2]Nuclear Breakout[/h]Iran’s uranium enrichment activities are under international monitoring to prevent diversion to weapons use. To produce a bomb, Iran would have to further process its stockpile of 20 percent enriched uranium, a level used to fuel its medical reactor, to 90 percent to make a single bomb, which would involve abandoning the current “safeguards” monitoring by the International Atomic Energy Agency.
That would give the U.S. ample notice to take action to prevent it, U.S. officials have said. It would also require Iran to have the technical capability to fabricate a bomb and detonator, as well as made it capable of being delivered by missile or other means.
After months of speculation that an Israeli strike on Iran could come as early as next month, Netanyahu’s remarks yesterday may give the U.S. some breathing room to pursue efforts short of military action. If those fail, a crucial decision may await whoever is in the Oval Office after January, and 2013 may prove to be the red line of no return in the showdown between Israel and Iran.
To contact the reporters on this story: Calev Ben-David in New York at [email protected]; Indira A.R. Lakshmanan in New York at [email protected]
To contact the editors responsible for this story: Andrew J. Barden at [email protected]; John Walcott at [email protected]
Now the world, in particular the U.S., will have to decide what steps may need to be taken to defuse the potentially explosive stand-off between Israel and Iran. Netanyahu focused on Iran’s production of enriched uranium, potential atomic bomb fuel if removed from international safeguards and further processed.
“By next spring, at most next summer, at current enrichment rates, they will have finished the medium enrichment and moved on to the final stage,” Netanyahu told the UN General Assembly yesterday, displaying a rudimentary bomb diagram to illustrate the Iran’s progress. “From there it’s only a few months, possibly a few weeks, before they get enough enriched uranium for the first bomb.”
This was the most specific deadline on the Iranian crisis given by the Israeli leader, who has repeatedly warned that “all options are on the table” to stop the Islamic Republic from achieving nuclear weapons capability -- including a military strike. While Netanyahu’s remarks may have more sharply defined the parameters of the Iran endgame, they also provided the U.S. and its allies a clearer time period to pursue their own mix of diplomacy and economic sanctions.
[h=2]Nuclear Threshold[/h]“What was new was Netanyahu’s focus on the threshold of when we might lose our ability to prevent Iran from becoming a nuclear weapons state,” said Dennis Ross, a former Iran adviser to President Barack Obama who is now at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy. “While creating a sense of urgency, it reduces the sense of imminent strike.”
Iran, which says its nuclear facilities are for peaceful civilian purposes, has vowed to retaliate if attacked. Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad condemned what he termed the “continued threat by the uncivilized Zionists to resort to a military action against our great nation” in his speech to the UN this week.
Netanyahu’s speech yesterday in New York followed weeks of open disagreement with the Obama administration over Iran. The Israeli leader has insisted the best way to stop Iran’s nuclear program is to set explicit “red lines” limiting its enrichment of uranium that would justify military action if crossed.
“Red lines don’t lead to war, they prevent war,” he said at the UN.
[h=2]Diplomatic Efforts[/h]The U.S. and Europe have rejected that approach, preferring a combination of economic sanctions directed against Iran and diplomatic engagement with its government. The sanctions, which include a European Union embargo on oil imports from Iran and a range of U.S. measures, have damaged the country’s economy while failing to halt the advancement of its nuclear program. Nor have direct negotiations between Iran and the so-called P5+1 nations -- the U.S., China, Russia, France, Germany and the U.K. -- produced tangible results so far.
Ministers from the P5+1 group met yesterday at the UN and reaffirmed their “dual track approach” of sanctions and negotiations to rein in Iran’s nuclear ambitions.
A senior U.S. State Department official, who spoke on condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the issue, said that Europe is discussing plans to levy additional sanctions, while the Obama administration has begun implementing tougher measures directed against the National Iranian Oil Company. The U.S. Treasury Department announced action Sept. 24 that exposes foreign financial institutions that deal with the company to U.S. sanctions.
[h=2]Iranian Economy[/h]In one sign of the impact of sanctions, Iran’s currency, the rial, fell yesterday to a record low 27,200 against the U.S. dollar on the open market, the Mehr news agency reported. The rial traded at 17,000 in mid-January in the Tehran bazaar.
Netanyahu acknowledged that the “Iran economy has been hit hard” by sanctions, while insisting that setting red lines was the only way to stop the Islamic Republic’s nuclear ambition. At the same time, the Haaretz newspaper yesterday published a leaked Israeli Foreign Ministry report that approvingly noted the impact of the sanctions and recommended that another round be directed against Iran.
After his UN speech, Netanyahu met for 75 minutes with U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton after publicly clashing with her over Iran earlier this month. The U.S. is “not setting deadlines” for Iran and still considers negotiations as “by far the best approach,” Clinton said in an interview with Bloomberg Radio on Sept. 9. Netanyahu responded two days later that “those in the international community who refuse to put a red line before Iran don’t have the moral right to place a red light before Israel” to forestall military action.
[h=2]Obama Call[/h]Netanyahu is scheduled to hold further discussions on Iran today in a phone call with Obama, according to Israeli government spokesman Mark Regev. The call comes in place of a face-to-face meeting the White House said didn’t take place because of scheduling issues with the election so close.
Netanyahu did meet yesterday with New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg at his official Gracie Mansion residence. Bloomberg, founder and majority owner of Bloomberg News parent Bloomberg LP, said the Israeli leader “made a very compelling case today why a clear red line is needed, and why that will help preserve peace. And I am sure that the U.S. and Israel can work out a common policy in the interests of both nations and in the interests of peace.”
[h=2]Nuclear Breakout[/h]Iran’s uranium enrichment activities are under international monitoring to prevent diversion to weapons use. To produce a bomb, Iran would have to further process its stockpile of 20 percent enriched uranium, a level used to fuel its medical reactor, to 90 percent to make a single bomb, which would involve abandoning the current “safeguards” monitoring by the International Atomic Energy Agency.
That would give the U.S. ample notice to take action to prevent it, U.S. officials have said. It would also require Iran to have the technical capability to fabricate a bomb and detonator, as well as made it capable of being delivered by missile or other means.
After months of speculation that an Israeli strike on Iran could come as early as next month, Netanyahu’s remarks yesterday may give the U.S. some breathing room to pursue efforts short of military action. If those fail, a crucial decision may await whoever is in the Oval Office after January, and 2013 may prove to be the red line of no return in the showdown between Israel and Iran.
To contact the reporters on this story: Calev Ben-David in New York at [email protected]; Indira A.R. Lakshmanan in New York at [email protected]
To contact the editors responsible for this story: Andrew J. Barden at [email protected]; John Walcott at [email protected]