Sony doesn’t have the best reliability, but Microsoft did set the bar quite low for a system launch. I mean the 360's are holding together now, but on launch they were breaking like they were made out of glass. So if Sony encounters the same problem this shouldn’t be any different then the 360 launch but, If the PS3 holds together and at least half the people who have PS2s end up buying a PS3, then Sony will have a good fighting chance.
I also think that, the fact that both PS3's have blu ray built in is going to help Sony win the high def DVD wars. 9 out of 10 households (or something crazy like that, I don’t know the actually stats, but its high) have at least a PS2. Which means 9 out of 10 households for sure, has a DVD player. If Sony can turn the same numbers with the ps3 then 9 out of 10 households will have a blu ray player on top of the people who bought a normal blu ray player. Where Microsoft is asking you to buy a $200 add on (which I haven’t talked to anyone that plans on getting one) or a $900 HD DVD player.
Will this win the war for Sony? No, but it will surly help.
As far as the Wii goes, I don’t think it will be like the virtual boy. The VB was trying to hard to be ahead of its time, I mean look, the VB came out in 1995? over 10 years ago, and Virtual reality is still not a common thing? The motion sensing is kind of a gimmick but still a step into the future, but at least this time it was a step and not a time warp. Then again, like you said there are allot of variables that we still don’t know about so it could have issues, but I don’t see it flopping.
I wasn’t to sure about the Wii when I first saw it but now I'm pretty impressed. I think it was smart of Nintendo to do this and not go after MS and Sony, because (I think) if they put out a Gamecube 2 with just crazy graphics, come next system launch Nintendo would have gone the way of Sega, but I think this has saved them a place in the console race.