[h=3]By DAVID LUHNOW And JOSÉ DE CÓRDOBA[/h]MEXICO CITY—Now that Mexico's former ruling party has won back the presidency after 12 years out of power, it faces the same predicament that haunted leaders from the outgoing conservative party: How to get big initiatives past a split congress?
The electoral victory on Sunday by Enrique Peña Nieto, a former state governor from the Institutional Revolutionary Party, was incomplete: It deprived his party of a majority in the lower house of congress.
Since 1997, no Mexican president has governed with a majority, including the outgoing President Felipe Calderón and his predecessor Vicente Fox. Not coincidentally, Mexico has failed to pass a major economic reform in that period, a fact reflected in the economic malaise that has allowed rival emerging economies like China and Brazil to leapfrog Mexico.
"Without a majority, we have our political work cut out for us," said Luis Videgaray, Mr. Peña Nieto's campaign manager and someone widely seen as a likely finance minister or chief of staff. "This country needs reforms."
Mr. Peña Nieto, who takes office in December, has outlined an ambitious reform agenda to kick-start Mexico's sluggish economy, which has averaged 2% annual growth since 2000. The centerpiece is a drive to allow a bigger role to private companies in the state-run energy sector—a move that will require changing the constitution and a two-thirds vote in Congress.
Even less-ambitious attempts to overhaul labor law or the tax code are going to need a majority that might be hard for the new president to cobble together, particularly if some members of his own party, which is filled with vested interests like the oil workers' union, don't go along.
"It just means that everybody can charge you a fortune for every vote you need," said former Mexican foreign minister Jorge Castañeda. "He's in a similar situation as Fox and Calderón."
The obvious ally for the PRI is Mr. Calderón's conservative National Action Party, or PAN. Large parts of Mr. Peña Nieto's free-market platform are long-standing PAN nostrums. And for the first time, both parties campaigned publicly on ending the monopoly of state oil giant Petróleos Mexicanos—a sacred cow of Mexican politics.
"Parties who want to open Pemex to private investment won 70% of the vote," wrote Héctor Aguilar Camín, a Mexican intellectual, in Milenio newspaper.
Still, Juan Ignacio Zavala, who served as spokesman for defeated PAN candidate Josefina Vázquez Mota, said reaching a deal with the PRI could be tough. "I see it as possible, but it won't be easy," he said. "There will be conditions." He mentioned that the PAN would demand the PRI approve measures such as making transparent the use of money that the federal government gives to the states as one such quid pro quo.
Mr. Peña Nieto said on Monday he hoped to strike deals with opponents before he takes office in December, using a lame-duck congressional period that begins in September.
Mr. Calderón, in a recent interview, said he would be willing to help pass such reforms, prompting many here to say the next few months could be Mexico's golden opportunity to end its debilitating gridlock.
"I think there is a high probability that we get some reforms passed," said Guillermo Ortiz, a former head of Mexico central bank who is now chairman of Mexican bank Banorte.
But others wonder whether the PAN, having suffered its worst federal election result since 1988, will be inclined to help its political rival.
For much of the past 15 years, both parties have acted in a tit-for-tat fashion. After the PRI lost its congressional majority in 1997, the PAN blocked an attempt by then President Ernesto Zedillo to liberalize the electricity sector. When the PAN won the presidency under Mr. Fox and Mr. Calderón, the PRI routinely blocked major initiatives, including energy reform.
"The most likely outcome is that the PAN will stumble around for a while before they figure out that helping the country advance is what the PAN has always been about," said Pamela Starr, a Mexico expert at the University of Southern California.
A key figure for the PAN will be Ernesto Cordero, Mr. Calderón's former finance minister and the man heading the party's slate in the senate. While no one doubts Mr. Cordero was an able technocrat as finance secretary, he proved a less-skilled politician during his unsuccessful campaign for the PAN's presidential nomination, Ms. Starr said. "It's not clear to me he will have the power to move his party to implement the reforms that are best for the country," she said.
—Laurence Iliff in Mexico City contributed to this article.
The electoral victory on Sunday by Enrique Peña Nieto, a former state governor from the Institutional Revolutionary Party, was incomplete: It deprived his party of a majority in the lower house of congress.
Since 1997, no Mexican president has governed with a majority, including the outgoing President Felipe Calderón and his predecessor Vicente Fox. Not coincidentally, Mexico has failed to pass a major economic reform in that period, a fact reflected in the economic malaise that has allowed rival emerging economies like China and Brazil to leapfrog Mexico.
"Without a majority, we have our political work cut out for us," said Luis Videgaray, Mr. Peña Nieto's campaign manager and someone widely seen as a likely finance minister or chief of staff. "This country needs reforms."
Mr. Peña Nieto, who takes office in December, has outlined an ambitious reform agenda to kick-start Mexico's sluggish economy, which has averaged 2% annual growth since 2000. The centerpiece is a drive to allow a bigger role to private companies in the state-run energy sector—a move that will require changing the constitution and a two-thirds vote in Congress.
Even less-ambitious attempts to overhaul labor law or the tax code are going to need a majority that might be hard for the new president to cobble together, particularly if some members of his own party, which is filled with vested interests like the oil workers' union, don't go along.
"It just means that everybody can charge you a fortune for every vote you need," said former Mexican foreign minister Jorge Castañeda. "He's in a similar situation as Fox and Calderón."
The obvious ally for the PRI is Mr. Calderón's conservative National Action Party, or PAN. Large parts of Mr. Peña Nieto's free-market platform are long-standing PAN nostrums. And for the first time, both parties campaigned publicly on ending the monopoly of state oil giant Petróleos Mexicanos—a sacred cow of Mexican politics.
"Parties who want to open Pemex to private investment won 70% of the vote," wrote Héctor Aguilar Camín, a Mexican intellectual, in Milenio newspaper.
Still, Juan Ignacio Zavala, who served as spokesman for defeated PAN candidate Josefina Vázquez Mota, said reaching a deal with the PRI could be tough. "I see it as possible, but it won't be easy," he said. "There will be conditions." He mentioned that the PAN would demand the PRI approve measures such as making transparent the use of money that the federal government gives to the states as one such quid pro quo.
Mr. Peña Nieto said on Monday he hoped to strike deals with opponents before he takes office in December, using a lame-duck congressional period that begins in September.
Mr. Calderón, in a recent interview, said he would be willing to help pass such reforms, prompting many here to say the next few months could be Mexico's golden opportunity to end its debilitating gridlock.
"I think there is a high probability that we get some reforms passed," said Guillermo Ortiz, a former head of Mexico central bank who is now chairman of Mexican bank Banorte.
But others wonder whether the PAN, having suffered its worst federal election result since 1988, will be inclined to help its political rival.
For much of the past 15 years, both parties have acted in a tit-for-tat fashion. After the PRI lost its congressional majority in 1997, the PAN blocked an attempt by then President Ernesto Zedillo to liberalize the electricity sector. When the PAN won the presidency under Mr. Fox and Mr. Calderón, the PRI routinely blocked major initiatives, including energy reform.
"The most likely outcome is that the PAN will stumble around for a while before they figure out that helping the country advance is what the PAN has always been about," said Pamela Starr, a Mexico expert at the University of Southern California.
A key figure for the PAN will be Ernesto Cordero, Mr. Calderón's former finance minister and the man heading the party's slate in the senate. While no one doubts Mr. Cordero was an able technocrat as finance secretary, he proved a less-skilled politician during his unsuccessful campaign for the PAN's presidential nomination, Ms. Starr said. "It's not clear to me he will have the power to move his party to implement the reforms that are best for the country," she said.
—Laurence Iliff in Mexico City contributed to this article.