(Updates with comments from Florida Governor Rick Scott in seventh paragraph, Tropical Storm Joyce at end.)
Aug. 23 (Bloomberg) -- Tropical Storm Isaac moved into the Caribbean Sea and may become a hurricane tomorrow as it travels west on a path watched by commodity markets and officials preparing for the Republican National Convention.
Isaac is forecast to strengthen and cross Haiti and Cuba before arriving on the southwestern Florida coast Aug. 27, the National Hurricane Center said. That’s the opening day of the Tampa gathering at which Republicans are expected to nominate Mitt Romney as their presidential candidate.
“Significant uncertainty remains about the threat Isaac poses to Florida,” the center said today.
Orange-juice futures rose the most in more than seven weeks on ICE Futures U.S. in New York yesterday because of the storm, then fell today as concern eased that groves may be harmed. Natural gas gained on the New York Mercantile Exchange before declining today on a stockpile gain.
Computer forecast models, which had disagreed about Isaac’s track, are starting to “show a little more convergence” and predicting a path into the eastern Gulf of Mexico, said Travis Hartman, a forecaster with MDA EarthSat Weather.
Assessing Risk
“It is better for the GOP convention in Tampa, but it is a little bit more of a risk to energy assets in the Gulf,” Hartman said by telephone from Gaithersburg, Maryland. “We’re not targeting the production area just yet, but the trend is a little bit toward that direction right now.”
Florida Governor Rick Scott said that while it’s too soon to say where Isaac may make landfall, the state “must take every precaution.” The Republican National Convention will decide whether to relocate, Scott said today at a press briefing in Tallahassee, the state capital.
Scott declined to disclose contingency plans. The governor said he has activated an emergency operations center and will hold briefings twice daily.
Isaac, the ninth named storm of the Atlantic hurricane season that runs through November, was 200 miles (322 kilometers) south-southeast of San Juan, Puerto Rico, the Miami- based center said in an advisory at 11 a.m. East Coast time. The system, moving west at 15 miles per hour, packed maximum sustained winds of 40 mph, down from 45 mph. That’s below the minimum 74 mph speed of a Category 1 hurricane.
Islands Affected
The storm may bring as much as 20 inches (51 centimeters) of rain and raise water levels by 5 feet above normal along the coast of Hispaniola, according to the advisory.
Isaac is expected to strengthen during the next 48 hours and may become a hurricane tomorrow before it reaches Hispaniola, the center said.
“There is a one in four chance that we can get a strong storm in the production area” of the Gulf, said Matt Rogers, president of the Commodity Weather Group LLC in Bethesda, Maryland. “In another few days, there is probably going to be a lot of talk about shut-ins and evacuations.”
The Gulf of Mexico is home to 29 percent of U.S. oil production, 6.3 percent of natural-gas output and 40 percent of refining capacity, according to the U.S. Energy Department. Florida is the second-largest orange grower, after Brazil.
Possible Path
“Isaac is almost 100 percent certain to hit land as it passes over Hispaniola, the Dominican Republic and Cuba,” Stephen Davenport, meteorologist at London-based Meteogroup, said by phone today. “It is impossible to say this far out how close to land the storm will be as it reaches Florida, but the most likely track takes it northwestward just to the west of Florida before heading on to the Gulf of Mexico.”
Critical to Isaac’s future is how much time the storm stays over Cuba, Haiti and the Dominican Republic, Hartman said. Mountains on those islands may tear its structure, weakening it. When Isaac moves back into water, the system will have a chance to strengthen.
More than 50,000 people are expected to visit the Tampa Bay area next week as Republicans hold their four-day convention, said James Davis, a convention spokesman.
Tampa is the second-largest metropolitan area in Florida, after Miami, with nearly 2.8 million people, according to Census data. An estimated 50,000 are expected to attend the four-day convention, including 15,000 representatives of the media.
Tampa Threat
The Tampa Bay Times Forum, site of the gathering, is in a mandatory evacuation zone once storms reach 96 mph, a Category 2 on the five-step Saffir-Simpson scale, according to the Hillsborough County Hurricane Guide.
The most violent storm to hit the city, in 1848, sent 15 feet of water over land now home to the Tampa Bay Convention Center, where media will be headquartered, Masters said.
Tropical Storm Joyce, the 10th of the hurricane season, formed today in the Atlantic Ocean about halfway between the Lesser Antilles and the Cape Verde Islands.
The storm, with top winds of 40 miles (64 kilometers) per hour, isn’t expected to strengthen much in the next two days and poses no immediate threat to land.
--With assistance from Rupert Rowling in London; Michael C. Bender in Tallahassee; Yee Kai Pin in Singapore; Christine Buurma and Marvin G. Perez in New York; and Lynn Doan in San Francisco. Editors: Charlotte Porter, Margot Habiby
To contact the reporters on this story: Brian K. Sullivan in Boston at [email protected]; Asjylyn Loder in New York at [email protected].
To contact the editor responsible for this story: Dan Stets at [email protected].
Aug. 23 (Bloomberg) -- Tropical Storm Isaac moved into the Caribbean Sea and may become a hurricane tomorrow as it travels west on a path watched by commodity markets and officials preparing for the Republican National Convention.
Isaac is forecast to strengthen and cross Haiti and Cuba before arriving on the southwestern Florida coast Aug. 27, the National Hurricane Center said. That’s the opening day of the Tampa gathering at which Republicans are expected to nominate Mitt Romney as their presidential candidate.
“Significant uncertainty remains about the threat Isaac poses to Florida,” the center said today.
Orange-juice futures rose the most in more than seven weeks on ICE Futures U.S. in New York yesterday because of the storm, then fell today as concern eased that groves may be harmed. Natural gas gained on the New York Mercantile Exchange before declining today on a stockpile gain.
Computer forecast models, which had disagreed about Isaac’s track, are starting to “show a little more convergence” and predicting a path into the eastern Gulf of Mexico, said Travis Hartman, a forecaster with MDA EarthSat Weather.
Assessing Risk
“It is better for the GOP convention in Tampa, but it is a little bit more of a risk to energy assets in the Gulf,” Hartman said by telephone from Gaithersburg, Maryland. “We’re not targeting the production area just yet, but the trend is a little bit toward that direction right now.”
Florida Governor Rick Scott said that while it’s too soon to say where Isaac may make landfall, the state “must take every precaution.” The Republican National Convention will decide whether to relocate, Scott said today at a press briefing in Tallahassee, the state capital.
Scott declined to disclose contingency plans. The governor said he has activated an emergency operations center and will hold briefings twice daily.
Isaac, the ninth named storm of the Atlantic hurricane season that runs through November, was 200 miles (322 kilometers) south-southeast of San Juan, Puerto Rico, the Miami- based center said in an advisory at 11 a.m. East Coast time. The system, moving west at 15 miles per hour, packed maximum sustained winds of 40 mph, down from 45 mph. That’s below the minimum 74 mph speed of a Category 1 hurricane.
Islands Affected
The storm may bring as much as 20 inches (51 centimeters) of rain and raise water levels by 5 feet above normal along the coast of Hispaniola, according to the advisory.
Isaac is expected to strengthen during the next 48 hours and may become a hurricane tomorrow before it reaches Hispaniola, the center said.
“There is a one in four chance that we can get a strong storm in the production area” of the Gulf, said Matt Rogers, president of the Commodity Weather Group LLC in Bethesda, Maryland. “In another few days, there is probably going to be a lot of talk about shut-ins and evacuations.”
The Gulf of Mexico is home to 29 percent of U.S. oil production, 6.3 percent of natural-gas output and 40 percent of refining capacity, according to the U.S. Energy Department. Florida is the second-largest orange grower, after Brazil.
Possible Path
“Isaac is almost 100 percent certain to hit land as it passes over Hispaniola, the Dominican Republic and Cuba,” Stephen Davenport, meteorologist at London-based Meteogroup, said by phone today. “It is impossible to say this far out how close to land the storm will be as it reaches Florida, but the most likely track takes it northwestward just to the west of Florida before heading on to the Gulf of Mexico.”
Critical to Isaac’s future is how much time the storm stays over Cuba, Haiti and the Dominican Republic, Hartman said. Mountains on those islands may tear its structure, weakening it. When Isaac moves back into water, the system will have a chance to strengthen.
More than 50,000 people are expected to visit the Tampa Bay area next week as Republicans hold their four-day convention, said James Davis, a convention spokesman.
Tampa is the second-largest metropolitan area in Florida, after Miami, with nearly 2.8 million people, according to Census data. An estimated 50,000 are expected to attend the four-day convention, including 15,000 representatives of the media.
Tampa Threat
The Tampa Bay Times Forum, site of the gathering, is in a mandatory evacuation zone once storms reach 96 mph, a Category 2 on the five-step Saffir-Simpson scale, according to the Hillsborough County Hurricane Guide.
The most violent storm to hit the city, in 1848, sent 15 feet of water over land now home to the Tampa Bay Convention Center, where media will be headquartered, Masters said.
Tropical Storm Joyce, the 10th of the hurricane season, formed today in the Atlantic Ocean about halfway between the Lesser Antilles and the Cape Verde Islands.
The storm, with top winds of 40 miles (64 kilometers) per hour, isn’t expected to strengthen much in the next two days and poses no immediate threat to land.
--With assistance from Rupert Rowling in London; Michael C. Bender in Tallahassee; Yee Kai Pin in Singapore; Christine Buurma and Marvin G. Perez in New York; and Lynn Doan in San Francisco. Editors: Charlotte Porter, Margot Habiby
To contact the reporters on this story: Brian K. Sullivan in Boston at [email protected]; Asjylyn Loder in New York at [email protected].
To contact the editor responsible for this story: Dan Stets at [email protected].