while you provide no source for your 12% figure, it is entirely conceivable. Indeed, while economists have noted america is showing signs of recovery, these signs are relatively minor i nature, and while many are hopeful, we are all keeping our fingers crossed, especially those who understand the housing market will play a HUGE role in america's economic recovery. Your tsunami analogy is certainly plausable, since they often come in numerous, different waves, differing in not only frequency, but in intensity as well. Good post, free from political acrimony, and well thought out--- a nice change from most other, petty-style questions asked in here.