In Scenarios for a Post-Assad Syria, Fear of... - ABC News

Diablo

New member
Standing just a few strides from the Syrian border, an Iraqi was mingling with Syrian rebel units outside their camp here, trying to find one that would take him in and let him fight in the uprising.
"It's an honor for me," said Sheik Abu Abdullah, wearing the white robe, Islamic skullcap and beard common among Islamic hardliners.
The battle-hungry Iraqi is part of a stream of Arab fighters who have been drawn to the rebel cause, adding not only to the growing complexities of Syria's civil war but also deepening the uncertainties of what could follow Bashar Assad's regime.
After the latest blow to Damascus — this week's defection of Syria's prime minister — U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton said Tuesday that there is an urgent need to plan for what happens afterward if and when the Assad regime falls. She said it is important to ensure that Syrian state institutions remain intact. The hope among U.S. officials is to find a "soft landing" that keeps some degree of stability.
However, few of the imaginable scenarios for post-Assad Syria portend stability after more than 17 months of blood-letting in a country that is more ethnically splintered than Iraq and holds perhaps the greatest international stakes of the Arab Spring.
159fa3efa1044510bbc88f3f05f62af2_mn.jpg

AP
In this Friday, April 6, 2012 file photo,... View Full Caption
In this Friday, April 6, 2012 file photo, rebels gather on a corner during fighting with Syrian troops in a suburb of Damascus, Syria. The diversity of Syrian society which includes Sunnis, Christians, Druse, Kurds and Assad’s Alawite community makes the possibility of a post-Assad power struggle very likely. Already, the conflict has seen Alawite gunmen participating in mass killings of Sunni civilians, as well as tit-for-tat slayings of Alawites by Sunnis. AP Photo/Mohammad Hannon, File) Close



One scenario: a bloodbath as Syria's majority Sunni population, which has led the uprising against Assad, seeks vengeance against the minority Alawite sect, an offshoot of Shiite Islam that forms the backbone of Assad's regime. The conflict's already increasing sectarian overtones suggest any power vacuum could usher in a direct fight between the two communities.
Another possibility is a free-for-all fight among the "victors" — the patchwork collection that makes up the anti-Assad revolt but has no common vision for the future. Among them are opposition figures in exile who have some political weight abroad but often haven't set foot in the country in years; political defectors like the prime minister; military generals who broke with the regime; the thousands of low-level soldiers who also defected and are doing much of the fighting in the rebel Free Syrian Army; and Syrian Islamists who have formed militias that nominally fight under the banner of the FSA but do not share the secular vision of some of its other members.
Add to that mix the wild card of the foreign fighters, whose numbers are unknown but who could fuel conflict between Syria's Islamist and secular factions. Some of the foreigners are believed to have links to al-Qaida, while many more are Islamic militants with no direct connection to the terror group.
"The militarization of the uprising provided a cover and a space for everyone — whether they are fighting to topple Assad, fighting for a free country, fighting a holy war in the name of God or fighting for a state that implements Islamic law," said Randa Kassis, a Paris-based member of the opposition Syrian National Council.
"This doesn't bode well for the future of Syria," she said.
While the foreign fighters share the goal of ousting Assad, they tend to view the fight in terms of a jihad, or holy war, to remove a regime they see as tainted with ties to Shiite Islam and to put in its place a Sunni Islamist rule.

p-89EKCgBk8MZdE.gif
 
Back
Top