If Climate Models Can't Predict Climate 3 Months Out, Why Do You Think They're

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Dr Jello

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Accurate For the Next 100 Years? NOAA's Climate Prediction Center predicted that Alaska and the Mid West would be warmer than average this winter.

They blew that prediction big time.

Since Climate Models are so inaccurate that they can't even predict the climate over the next 3 months, why does anyone think they will be more accurate if you just give them more time?

If you believe that 3 months is just weather, and weather can't be predicted, and 100 years is climate and that can be predicted then in 99 years 9 months 100 years is just 3 months away and that's just weather that can't be predicted either.

Should climate prediction be stopped until an accurate model is developed that can accurately predict the climate 3 months from now?

Are we getting our moneys worth from "Global Warming" research?
 
When we predict changes over the next three months, we predict in much greater detail than we do in predicting for the next century. In the latter instance, we have a chance to let minor fluctuations even one another out. We still rely on those imperfect predictions to make business decisions. Do we stock up on overcoats or Bermuda shorts? Which will sell better?

BTW, I know I'm talking about weather, not climate, which is what you head-in-the-sand types do, but it wasn't that long ago that the weather in Anchorage was quite a bit warmer (45°F) than it was in Alabama. Perhaps we'd better wail until winter is more than a third over before claiming that NOAA was wrong about the whole winter.
 
yes you are right, climate projecting has shown again and again to just be a guessing game
 
We should stop all Public funding of climate modelers. If they had to secure funding based on verifiable results the models would be more accurate and we wouldn't be wasting billions of dollars on scam science.

Danni
 
The predictions about the current solar cycle were wrong as well, it's far weaker than was predicted just a few month's ago. But I think they'll improve over time and should continue. You don't ask your child to stop walking if he doesn't learn it right away and we're at about the same point regarding understanding the Earth's climate.

Part of the problem is there's an inherent bias in most climate models, no matter what data you plug in you get warming and they can't accurately predict past climate using historical data for this reason. Once the hysteria over warming ends we can work on accurate and unbiased models and maybe separate political entities from the research they fund.
 
One thing is for sure it's a good time to become a Theorist. Add some stats a little science and it sells. Like wrapping the same product in a different wrapper and charging a little more for it. People buy into this sort of stuff, not knowing they are being dupe.
 
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