M
Mephistopheles
Guest
...year's temperatures? A recently-repeated statement by the AGW proponents in this forum is that "natural factors cannot explain the late 20th century warming."
That statement can be made only if every material natural factor is known and fully understood, and only if the precise manner in which those factors interrelate and affect the total climate is fully understood.
If that understanding exists, then scientists would have at their disposal all climate inputs - every factor that would determine the coming shift in climate. That would mean that they should be able to predict with good accuracy next year's climate.
But the predictions to date haven't exactly been spot on.
Why?
If there are WAY too many variables then they cannot honestly make such claims as "natural factors cannot explain the late 20th century warming."
Johnny volcano eruptions haven't been a material factor in the predictions being off since 2000.
And if we don't understand ENSO then that's precisely what I'm talking about.
That statement can be made only if every material natural factor is known and fully understood, and only if the precise manner in which those factors interrelate and affect the total climate is fully understood.
If that understanding exists, then scientists would have at their disposal all climate inputs - every factor that would determine the coming shift in climate. That would mean that they should be able to predict with good accuracy next year's climate.
But the predictions to date haven't exactly been spot on.
Why?
If there are WAY too many variables then they cannot honestly make such claims as "natural factors cannot explain the late 20th century warming."
Johnny volcano eruptions haven't been a material factor in the predictions being off since 2000.
And if we don't understand ENSO then that's precisely what I'm talking about.